Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of zinc is strong while demand is weak, and short - term macro guidance should be focused on [2][4] - The zinc market is neutral to weak [2] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and it is advisable to hold positive spread positions for the short - to medium - term (within a quarter) cautiously [4] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,270, with a weekly increase of 1.32%; the night - session closing price was 22,110, with a decline of 0.72%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,984.5, with a decline of 1.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 174,778, an increase of 48,062 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 106,534, a decrease of 19,552. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,666, an increase of 4,006; the open interest was 220,239, a decrease of 2,463 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3,071 to 60,644; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 8,940 to 106,950; social inventory decreased by 200 to 150,200; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,850 to 37,950, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased by 16.16% to 39.66%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while visible zinc ingot inventories have declined [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same historical period; refined zinc operation rate has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are at a historically low level [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot has been in a contango state. Overseas premiums have been relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][20] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [23] - **Inventory**: This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore; LME total inventory has decreased slightly in the short - term and is at a historically low level in the same period; CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory has remained stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same historical period [38] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly; domestic zinc ore production is at a historical medium level; imported ore processing fees have continued to rise, while domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same historical period [41][42] - **Refined Zinc**: Zinc alloy production is at a high level; smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same historical period. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [49][51] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials includes data on the operation rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills, and the average price of secondary zinc oxide [55][56][57][58] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [61] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same historical period [63][64] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [78] 6. Overseas Factors - Information on overseas factors includes European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, electricity prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries [80][81][82][83]