1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has fundamental support at the bottom, but risks are still brewing, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore is at the end of the expansion cycle, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise [3]. - Currently, the zinc price has basically priced in previous disturbances. If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are still brewing. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,935, with a weekly decline of 4.99%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,860, with a night - session decline of 0.33%. The LmeS - zinc3 closed at 3056 last week, with a weekly decline of 7.21% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 159,743, an increase of 73,802 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 106,130, an increase of 30,939. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,533, an increase of 9,477, and the open interest was 208,190, a decrease of 7,216 [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 102,509, an increase of 16,416; SHFE total zinc inventory was 152,266, an increase of 4,918; social inventory was 266,100, a decrease of 2,700; LME zinc inventory was 117,675, an increase of 19,775; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Zinc concentrate enterprise production profits are stable and at historical highs, refining zinc enterprise production profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11]. - **Operating Rate**: Zinc concentrate and refining zinc operating rates have declined and are at historical lows in the same period. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have increased but are at medium - low levels in history [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have rebounded. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc has strengthened [21]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, LME total inventory has increased, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has decreased to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global zinc visible inventory has rebounded significantly [24][30][32]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at the median of the historical same period [33]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at the median of the historical same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import profit and loss, import volume, and export volume are presented in the report, and the refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [40][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly operating rates have declined slightly and are mostly at historical lows in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also presented in the report [46][50]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in some European countries, are presented in the report [63][64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state where the supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is at its end, with global zinc ore production growth slowing down. The most relaxed stage of zinc ore supply has passed, and a tight - balance state may become the norm. In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but downstream demand is gradually recovering. The Middle East tension has increased zinc price volatility, and there may be mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,260, with a weekly decline of 1.82%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,330, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,323, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 133,335, an increase of 28,787 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 85,316, a decrease of 9,558 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,823, an increase of 1,481 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 222,533, a decrease of 3,899 compared to the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 76,450, an increase of 6,785 compared to the previous week; SHFE total zinc inventory was 134,921, an increase of 8,869 compared to the previous week; social inventory was 256,300, an increase of 36,400 compared to the previous week; LME zinc inventory was 94,975, a decrease of 2,375 compared to the previous week; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining enterprises' profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable but at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are recovering but at a low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Refined zinc capacity utilization has increased and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization have increased but are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19]. - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [22]. - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with total LME inventory continuously decreasing, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has declined to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have significantly increased, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared to the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw - material inventory has rebounded from a low level [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports and exports are presented in relevant data, and refined zinc import losses are shown in the data [42]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, scrap - steel consumption of steel mills, and the prices of recycled zinc - related raw materials are provided [44][45][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: The growth rate of refined zinc consumption is positive, but the downstream monthly capacity utilization has slightly declined and is mostly at a low level compared to the same period in history [50][54]. - **Downstream Raw - Material and Finished - Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are provided [56][60][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural - gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc - smelter profit - and - loss situations are provided [67][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of neutral to strong. The supply and demand side of zinc is gradually changing, with the supply side expected to become looser, and the demand side slowly recovering after the holiday. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The recent escalation of the Middle East situation may boost zinc prices due to market sentiment, but the actual impact on domestic supply is expected to be limited [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract last week was 24,710, with a weekly increase of 2.13%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,445, with a night - session decrease of 1.07%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,308, with a weekly decrease of 2.07% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 104,548, an increase of 1,614 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 94,874, an increase of 55,085. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,705, an increase of 3,962 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 229,485, a decrease of 1,863 [6] - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 31.28 to - 18.34, an increase of 12.94; the bonded area zinc premium changed from - 45 to 130, an increase of 175; the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 35 to - 45, a decrease of 10; the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 65 to - 125, a decrease of 60; the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium changed from - 85 to - 75, an increase of 10 [6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 23,972 to 69,665; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 39,027 to 126,052; social inventory increased by 59,500 to 219,900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,225 to 97,350, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.50%, a decrease of 3.11% compared to the previous week; the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are in the forefront of the industrial chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits are stable and at historical highs, smelting profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11] - **Capacity Utilization**: The zinc concentrate capacity utilization rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history; the refined zinc capacity utilization rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history; the downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates are rising but at a medium - to - low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium declining, and the LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18] - **Spread**: The C - structure of Shanghai Zinc has flattened [21] - **Inventory**: There was a significant inventory build - up this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [25][30][32] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - to - high level in the same period of history [33] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory is at a low level in the same period [36][37] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, smelter finished product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [38] - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and the refined zinc import profit and loss situation is also presented [40] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, scrap steel daily consumption of steel mills, and the prices of plating pipe slag and secondary zinc oxide are provided [42][43][44][45] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [48] - **Downstream**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a high level in the same period of history. The raw material and finished product inventory data of downstream industries such as galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are also provided [52][53][56] - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments. Data on the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires, cement出库量, rubber tire production, project fund availability rate, and real estate and infrastructure investment are provided [61][62] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and European zinc smelter profit and loss are provided [64][65][66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices oscillate and converge before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - sentiment side. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is coming to an end, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise. In the short term, zinc prices may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 24,450, with a weekly decline of 5.36%. The closing price of the night session was 24,595, with a night - session increase of 0.59%. The price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,383, with an increase of 0.39% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 155,796, a decrease of 345,667 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 65,853, a decrease of 39,686 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 11,193, a decrease of 8,040 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 232,974, a decrease of 6,461 compared with the previous week [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME zinc premium decreased by 13.15, the bonded - area zinc premium increased by 130, the Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium increased by 20, the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 30, and the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 25. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 55. The zinc spot import loss increased by 444.89, and the SHFE zinc 3M import loss increased by 428.79 [7]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 2,620, the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 5,535, the social inventory increased by 16,700, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,400, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingots are accumulating normally before the holiday [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Mining enterprise profits are declining but still at a historical high, smelting profits are declining and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. The refined zinc operation rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period of history. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are falling and at a medium - low level in the same period of history [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium is rising. This week, overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium remaining flat, and the LME CASH - 3M falling [18][20]. - **Price Spreads**: The SHFE zinc C - structure flattens [22]. - **Inventory**: This week, there is a significant inventory accumulation, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is falling. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory remains unchanged this week, and the global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period of history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and the smelter raw - material inventory is at a low level in the same period [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Smelter finished - product inventory is rising and at a high level in the same period of history. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import loss is increasing, and the import volume and export volume data are also presented in the report [42]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: The operation rate of 87 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills and the scrap - steel daily consumption of 147 steel mills are presented, as well as the average prices of galvanized pipe slag and Hunan secondary zinc oxide [44][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [51]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The downstream monthly operation rate has increased slightly and is mostly at a high level in the same period of history [55]. - **Downstream Raw - Material Inventory**: The raw - material inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [56]. - **Downstream Finished - Product Inventory**: The finished - product inventories of galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide are presented [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [65]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, electricity, and carbon emissions are presented, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in different European countries [67][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current real - world situation of zinc is not weak, and its price is relatively resistant to decline, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices. The zinc ore expansion cycle is nearing its end, and the growth rate of global zinc ore production is declining. The most abundant phase of zinc ore is over, and a tight balance in zinc ore may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise. In the short - term, zinc prices may be prone to rise and difficult to fall, and after a medium - term correction, there may be buying opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 25,835, with a weekly increase of 5.08%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3 was 3,370, with a weekly increase of 3.09%. The night - session closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 25,775, with a night - session decline of 0.23% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 501,463, an increase of 328,176 from the previous week; the open interest was 105,539, a decrease of 14,636 from the previous week. The trading volume of LME Zinc 3 was 14,007, an increase of 4,544 from the previous week; the open interest was 233,157, an increase of 2,991 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 1,526 to 28,468; SHFE Zinc total inventory decreased by 7,997 to 65,154; social inventory decreased by 1,600 to 117,200; LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 to 110,000; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories remained stable [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Mining enterprise profits are rising and at a historical high, smelting profits are falling and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are falling and at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates all declined [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums declined. Overseas premiums showed differentiation this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [17][20]. - **Spread**: The C - structure of SHFE Zinc flattened [22]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory is relatively stable, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory remained stable [25][30][32]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium - high level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production decreased, import ore processing fees decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports was high, and smelter raw - material inventories increased [36][37]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [44]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, prices of plating pipe slag, and other related data are presented [47][48]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [53]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate increased slightly, and most are at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history [57]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [68]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in Spain, the UK, France, Italy, and Germany [70][71][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of zinc has increased, and the bullish sentiment has risen and then fallen, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Supply - side disturbances have increased. Geopolitical risks in Iran and heavy rain in Australia have affected the stability of zinc ore supply. The TC upward space this year may be lower than last year, and zinc prices have a certain upward elasticity. In the short - term, if the capital rotation trading of non - ferrous metals ends, zinc prices may have a phased adjustment, but the downside space is relatively limited. Pay attention to mid - term opportunities to try long on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,750, with a weekly increase of 3.25%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,405, with a night - session decline of 1.39%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,207.5, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 368,615, an increase of 225,388 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 142,274, an increase of 65,641. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,389, an increase of 5,157, and the open interest was 228,263, a decrease of 5,388 [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 5,316 to 33,558, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,459 to 76,311, social inventory decreased by 100 to 118,400, LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 to 106,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories have remained stable [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical low. Mine enterprise profits have recovered and are at a historical high, smelting profits have recovered but are still at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable and are at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate has continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanized, die - cast zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have all declined [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium has fluctuated and declined. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with Singapore's remaining stable, Antwerp's rising, and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high and turning to a C structure [18][23]. - **Price Spread**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [25]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory has remained relatively stable, the注销仓单 ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low, the bonded area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [30][36][38]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period in history [39]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore is at a medium level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has increased [42][43]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter's finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [49][50]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the waste steel consumption of 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide is provided [53][54][55][56]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [63]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [74]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Information on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, power prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries is provided [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is strongly priced by macro factors, and its price is likely to rise rather than fall. It is rated as neutral to strong in terms of strength analysis [2][6]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upside potential of prices. In the short - term, under the influence of strong market sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, the risk premium of non - ferrous metals has increased significantly, and zinc prices are difficult to weaken under the strong macro - pricing logic [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,970, with a weekly increase of 2.99%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,149, with a weekly increase of 0.70% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 143,227, a decrease of 11,716 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 76,633, a decrease of 9,946. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 15,979, an increase of 8,265, and the open interest was 233,998, an increase of 3,770 [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic inventories showed a slight accumulation. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,946, while the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 4,059. The social inventory increased by 12,400, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import zinc ore processing fee decreased by 6 to 38 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable at 1,500 yuan/ton. The import zinc ore smelting profit increased by 2,921 to 38 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 200 to - 1,554 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high level in history, smelting profits have rebounded but are still at a low level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc smelting production capacity utilization has continued to decline, and downstream production capacity utilization is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, refined zinc production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, and downstream galvanizing production capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide production capacity utilization have declined to a medium - low level [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated strongly. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable, and the premium in Antwerp rebounding. The LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and turned into a C structure [18][19]. - **Price Spreads**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21]. - **Inventory**: This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory has rebounded [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined to a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter finished product inventory has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: No comprehensive summary information is available. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [55]. - **Downstream**: The monthly production capacity utilization of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different changes [58][60][65]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [72]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon allowances, and electricity in different countries show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries also varies [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand dynamics. The overseas short - squeeze in the zinc market has ended, and the domestic destocking pace will slow down. In the short term, prices may enter a period of consolidation. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space will determine the upside potential of prices. With the end of the zinc mine expansion cycle, a tight balance in the zinc mine market may become the norm next year, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper price pressure in the short term and mid - term opportunities to buy on dips [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc's main contract last week was 23,275, with a weekly increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was also 23,275, with a night - session increase of 0.00%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3,127, with an increase of 1.31% [6][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc's main contract last Friday was 154,943 lots, a decrease of 16,575 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 86,579 lots, a decrease of 8,618 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 228,130 lots, an increase of 1,079 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. The inventory of zinc ore, smelter finished products, and zinc ingots has shown a downward trend, while the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [9][36]. - **Profit**: Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Zinc mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high historical level, smelting profits have rebounded to a historical median level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization have declined to a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide capacity utilization have shown mixed trends, generally at a medium - low historical level [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with the Singapore premium remaining stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has declined from a high level and changed to a Contango structure [17][18]. - **Spread**: The Contango structure of SHFE Zinc has flattened [20]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low level. The bonded - area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [28][34][36]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [37]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories have increased [40][41]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [47][48]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials mainly includes the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag in Tianjin, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills [51][52][53]. 3.5 Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly capacity utilization of downstream industries has slightly increased, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [59][62]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [76]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries, are presented, but no specific trends or conclusions are drawn in the summary [77][78][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is relatively balanced around the 23,000 level, waiting for new drivers, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is decreasing, and the consumption situation is weak. The overseas squeeze - out market is over, and short - term prices may enter a consolidation phase. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices [5]. - The zinc mine expansion cycle is coming to an end. Next year, the increase in global zinc mines is limited, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Data Changes - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,065, with a weekly decline of 2.29%. The closing price of the night session was 23,070, with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,078, with a weekly decline of 1.94% [6]. - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and the SHFE zinc contango structure flattened [17][19]. - **Inventory** - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,104 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4,560 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons; the LME zinc inventory increased by 37,975 tons; the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Globally, the total visible zinc inventory increased significantly [35]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 125,408 lots, and the open interest decreased by 44,565 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 decreased by 9,880 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,962 lots [6]. - The domestic open interest is at the median of the same period in history [36]. 2. Industry Chain Analysis - **Inventory** - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have decreased [8]. - **Profit** - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows [10]. - Mining enterprise profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11]. - **Operating Rate** - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc operating rates have declined and are at the median of the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide operating rates have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [13]. 3. Supply - side Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate** - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, while domestic zinc mine production has decreased [39]. - Imported ore processing fees have decreased, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly [39]. - The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [40]. - **Refined Zinc** - Smelting output has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history [46][47]. - Zinc alloy production is at a high level [47]. 4. Demand - side Analysis - **Refined Zinc Consumption** - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream Industry** - The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [55]. - The raw - material and finished - product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand** - The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [71]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity show different trends, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows neutral to strong strength, with prices fluctuating at a high level both domestically and internationally [2]. - Domestic zinc inventories continue to decline, and galvanizing开工率 has rebounded [3][4]. - The domestic zinc supply is expected to decrease due to large losses in imported zinc concentrates and the shutdown of northern mines at the end of the year. The consumption side is in the off - season, and downstream demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Abnormal premium structures have appeared in London this year, indicating a shortage of overseas spot supplies. Although the export window has opened and domestic supplies have flowed overseas, the LME inventory accumulation is slow, and the risk of overseas inventory structure still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but in the short term, prices may have upward elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,605 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 23,305 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,139 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.31% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 9,447 tons to 51,282 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 11,339 tons to 80,577 tons. The social inventory decreased by 12,100 tons to 128,200 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 6,550 tons to 61,925 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3,300 tons [7]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 58 dollars/ton to 51 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 2,050 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton. The imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 239 yuan/ton to - 5,003 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 176 yuan/ton to - 1,442 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2. Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore enterprises' profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history, while smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **开工率**: Zinc concentrate开工率 has rebounded and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc开工率 has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing开工率 has rebounded, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide开工率 have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable and the LME CASH - 3M declining from a high level [18][19]. - **Spreads**: The C - structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventories have shown a slight decline this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has remained flat. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory has remained flat this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [27][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same period in history [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [46][47]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume is not clearly stated, and the export situation shows that although the export window has opened, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses is relatively limited [48]. 3.5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream**: The monthly开工率 of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [55][71]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are provided, and the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries is also shown, but specific analysis conclusions are not clearly stated [73][74][76].