国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 锌产业链周度报告 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：中东紧张局势升级，关注资金情绪助推 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存累库 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 加工费筑底，供应转向宽松。国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，已有筑底之势， 但进口矿TC继续走低，集中在30美元/干吨以下。国内炼厂面临进口TC与沪伦比值双 低的压力，进口矿冶炼亏损仍然较大，进口矿交易不确定性增加，但考虑3-4月为国 产锌矿集中复产期，后续锌矿供给预计转向宽松。此外，参考百川盈孚最新排产数据， 3月份锌冶炼厂排产环比增 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：节前价格震荡收敛，关注宏观情绪面变化 ◆ 供应侧矿端减量。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中20-40美元/干吨，Antamina等海外锌矿船货报盘价格已降至-15、-50美元/干吨； 此外，参考TECK最新公告，再次下调Antanima矿山26年生产指引，若考虑股权占比， 即Antamina26年产量同比下降27万吨，较此前再次下调9万吨左右。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工率环比下滑明显，节前订单不及预 期，多数企业已经进入假期模式，等待节后复工，仅少数大型企业保留极低负荷维持 核心订单交付，新单与采购全面停滞。 ◆ 长周期来看， ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：现实面不弱，价格相对抗跌 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 供应侧减量持续。当下国产矿TC集中在1100-1600/金属吨，进口矿TC小幅下调，集 中30-50美元/干吨，原料库存充裕下，预计后续加工费底部企稳；根据百川盈孚初步 统计，2月冶炼排产环比下降5.68万吨左右，主要为云南、广西、内蒙古、四川和湖 南等地小厂春节停产放假减量，供应减量下节前累库或低于预期。 ◆ 需求侧淡季明显。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金开工环比下滑，节前订单不及预期，市 场对于高价货源接受程度有限。各行业整体放假节点较往年明显提前，部分企业已经 提前停产并进入假期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of zinc has increased, and the bullish sentiment has risen and then fallen, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Supply - side disturbances have increased. Geopolitical risks in Iran and heavy rain in Australia have affected the stability of zinc ore supply. The TC upward space this year may be lower than last year, and zinc prices have a certain upward elasticity. In the short - term, if the capital rotation trading of non - ferrous metals ends, zinc prices may have a phased adjustment, but the downside space is relatively limited. Pay attention to mid - term opportunities to try long on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,750, with a weekly increase of 3.25%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 24,405, with a night - session decline of 1.39%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,207.5, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 368,615, an increase of 225,388 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 142,274, an increase of 65,641. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,389, an increase of 5,157, and the open interest was 228,263, a decrease of 5,388 [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 5,316 to 33,558, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,459 to 76,311, social inventory decreased by 100 to 118,400, LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 to 106,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have increased, while zinc ingot visible inventories have remained stable [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical low. Mine enterprise profits have recovered and are at a historical high, smelting profits have recovered but are still at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable and are at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The smelting operating rate has continued to decline, and the downstream operating rate is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate, refined zinc, galvanized, die - cast zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have all declined [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot Premium**: The spot premium has fluctuated and declined. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with Singapore's remaining stable, Antwerp's rising, and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high and turning to a C structure [18][23]. - **Price Spread**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [25]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, the total LME inventory has remained relatively stable, the注销仓单 ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low, the bonded area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [30][36][38]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - high level in the same period in history [39]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has remained stable. The arrival volume of zinc ore is at a medium level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has increased [42][43]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter's finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [49][50]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the waste steel consumption of 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide is provided [53][54][55][56]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [63]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [74]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Information on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, power prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries is provided [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is strongly priced by macro factors, and its price is likely to rise rather than fall. It is rated as neutral to strong in terms of strength analysis [2][6]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upside potential of prices. In the short - term, under the influence of strong market sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, the risk premium of non - ferrous metals has increased significantly, and zinc prices are difficult to weaken under the strong macro - pricing logic [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,970, with a weekly increase of 2.99%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,149, with a weekly increase of 0.70% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 143,227, a decrease of 11,716 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 76,633, a decrease of 9,946. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 15,979, an increase of 8,265, and the open interest was 233,998, an increase of 3,770 [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic inventories showed a slight accumulation. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,946, while the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 4,059. The social inventory increased by 12,400, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import zinc ore processing fee decreased by 6 to 38 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable at 1,500 yuan/ton. The import zinc ore smelting profit increased by 2,921 to 38 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 200 to - 1,554 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high level in history, smelting profits have rebounded but are still at a low level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc smelting production capacity utilization has continued to decline, and downstream production capacity utilization is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, refined zinc production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, and downstream galvanizing production capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide production capacity utilization have declined to a medium - low level [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated strongly. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable, and the premium in Antwerp rebounding. The LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and turned into a C structure [18][19]. - **Price Spreads**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21]. - **Inventory**: This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory has rebounded [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined to a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter finished product inventory has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: No comprehensive summary information is available. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [55]. - **Downstream**: The monthly production capacity utilization of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different changes [58][60][65]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [72]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon allowances, and electricity in different countries show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries also varies [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand dynamics. The overseas short - squeeze in the zinc market has ended, and the domestic destocking pace will slow down. In the short term, prices may enter a period of consolidation. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space will determine the upside potential of prices. With the end of the zinc mine expansion cycle, a tight balance in the zinc mine market may become the norm next year, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper price pressure in the short term and mid - term opportunities to buy on dips [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc's main contract last week was 23,275, with a weekly increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was also 23,275, with a night - session increase of 0.00%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3,127, with an increase of 1.31% [6][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc's main contract last Friday was 154,943 lots, a decrease of 16,575 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 86,579 lots, a decrease of 8,618 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 228,130 lots, an increase of 1,079 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. The inventory of zinc ore, smelter finished products, and zinc ingots has shown a downward trend, while the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [9][36]. - **Profit**: Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Zinc mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high historical level, smelting profits have rebounded to a historical median level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization have declined to a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide capacity utilization have shown mixed trends, generally at a medium - low historical level [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with the Singapore premium remaining stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has declined from a high level and changed to a Contango structure [17][18]. - **Spread**: The Contango structure of SHFE Zinc has flattened [20]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low level. The bonded - area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [28][34][36]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [37]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories have increased [40][41]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [47][48]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials mainly includes the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag in Tianjin, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills [51][52][53]. 3.5 Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly capacity utilization of downstream industries has slightly increased, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [59][62]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [76]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries, are presented, but no specific trends or conclusions are drawn in the summary [77][78][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is relatively balanced around the 23,000 level, waiting for new drivers, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is decreasing, and the consumption situation is weak. The overseas squeeze - out market is over, and short - term prices may enter a consolidation phase. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices [5]. - The zinc mine expansion cycle is coming to an end. Next year, the increase in global zinc mines is limited, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Data Changes - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,065, with a weekly decline of 2.29%. The closing price of the night session was 23,070, with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,078, with a weekly decline of 1.94% [6]. - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and the SHFE zinc contango structure flattened [17][19]. - **Inventory** - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,104 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4,560 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons; the LME zinc inventory increased by 37,975 tons; the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Globally, the total visible zinc inventory increased significantly [35]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 125,408 lots, and the open interest decreased by 44,565 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 decreased by 9,880 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,962 lots [6]. - The domestic open interest is at the median of the same period in history [36]. 2. Industry Chain Analysis - **Inventory** - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have decreased [8]. - **Profit** - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows [10]. - Mining enterprise profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11]. - **Operating Rate** - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc operating rates have declined and are at the median of the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide operating rates have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [13]. 3. Supply - side Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate** - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, while domestic zinc mine production has decreased [39]. - Imported ore processing fees have decreased, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly [39]. - The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [40]. - **Refined Zinc** - Smelting output has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history [46][47]. - Zinc alloy production is at a high level [47]. 4. Demand - side Analysis - **Refined Zinc Consumption** - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream Industry** - The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [55]. - The raw - material and finished - product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand** - The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [71]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity show different trends, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows neutral to strong strength, with prices fluctuating at a high level both domestically and internationally [2]. - Domestic zinc inventories continue to decline, and galvanizing开工率 has rebounded [3][4]. - The domestic zinc supply is expected to decrease due to large losses in imported zinc concentrates and the shutdown of northern mines at the end of the year. The consumption side is in the off - season, and downstream demand is seasonally weak [6]. - Abnormal premium structures have appeared in London this year, indicating a shortage of overseas spot supplies. Although the export window has opened and domestic supplies have flowed overseas, the LME inventory accumulation is slow, and the risk of overseas inventory structure still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but in the short term, prices may have upward elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,605 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 23,305 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,139 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.31% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 9,447 tons to 51,282 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 11,339 tons to 80,577 tons. The social inventory decreased by 12,100 tons to 128,200 tons. The LME zinc inventory increased by 6,550 tons to 61,925 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3,300 tons [7]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 58 dollars/ton to 51 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased from 2,050 yuan/ton to 1,850 yuan/ton. The imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 239 yuan/ton to - 5,003 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 176 yuan/ton to - 1,442 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2. Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore enterprises' profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history, while smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **开工率**: Zinc concentrate开工率 has rebounded and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc开工率 has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing开工率 has rebounded, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide开工率 have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable and the LME CASH - 3M declining from a high level [18][19]. - **Spreads**: The C - structure of SHFE zinc has flattened [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventories have shown a slight decline this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has remained flat. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded - area inventory has remained flat this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has decreased slightly [27][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same period in history [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [46][47]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import volume is not clearly stated, and the export situation shows that although the export window has opened, the volume of goods delivered to warehouses is relatively limited [48]. 3.5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream**: The monthly开工率 of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [55][71]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are provided, and the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries is also shown, but specific analysis conclusions are not clearly stated [73][74][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices have limited upward momentum after breaking through 23,000, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances. The strength analysis is neutral to strong, and domestic inventories continue to decline [3]. - Domestic supply is decreasing. Imported zinc concentrate losses are large, and domestic concentrate TC is expected to decline further. Some smelters plan to reduce production, with a potential supply reduction of 3 - 4 tons. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. The export window is open, but short - term export volume is not expected to be large. There is an expectation of zinc ingot surplus next year, but short - term negative factors are restricted. Supply - side disturbances support prices, and downstream consumption and restocking rhythm limit price increases [6]. - In terms of strategy, domestic destocking and overseas stockpiling make domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage have a certain risk - return ratio, but the driving logic within the year is not strong. The LME 0 - 3 spread remains high, and phased intervention can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,305, with a weekly increase of 3.92%. The closing price of the night session was 23,065, with a decline of 1.03%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc3 last week was 3,098.5, with a weekly increase of 1.56% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 163,149, an increase of 68,993 from the previous week. The open interest was 107,552, an increase of 6,010. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc3 was 13,271, an increase of 4,210, and the open interest was 222,390, an increase of 2,659 [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,888 to 60,729, and total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4,000 to 91,916. Social inventory decreased by 7,800 to 140,300. LME zinc inventory increased by 3,625 to 55,375, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,600 [7]. - **Fundamental Data Changes**: Imported zinc concentrate processing fees decreased from 61 to 58 dollars/ton, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased from 2,350 to 2,050 yuan/ton. Imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 603 yuan/ton to - 4,764 yuan/ton, and domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 192 yuan/ton to - 1,266 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore, smelter finished product inventories are falling from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories are decreasing [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits are rising and at a medium - high level in history, smelting profits are falling, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: Zinc concentrate operating rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc operating rate is falling and at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing operating rate is rising, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide operating rates are falling, all at medium - low levels in history [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Guangdong and Tianjin spot premiums are weakening. Overseas premiums are showing differentiation this week, with Singapore's premium stable and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high level [18][19]. - **Spread**: The SHFE zinc C - structure is flattening [22]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventories are slightly decreasing this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total inventory. The cancellation warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low [24][30]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: Domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [34]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is rising, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrivals are at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories are decreasing [37][38]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output is falling but remains at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories are decreasing and at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [44][45]. - **Import and Export**: The refined zinc import loss is large, and the export window is open, but short - term export volume is not expected to be large [6][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [51]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [54]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [70]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices show certain fluctuations, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [72][73][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [2] Report's Core Viewpoint - Zinc supply is decreasing while consumption remains stable, and there is still support below the price [2] - Domestic inventory is continuing to decline, and the operating rate of galvanizing has dropped [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,425, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,470, with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,051, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [6] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore, smelter finished products have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9] Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [11] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [13] 3. Trading Aspect Spot - The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M strengthening significantly [17][18] Spread - SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [20] Inventory - This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventory, a large decrease in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [24][30][32] Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a historical median level for the same period [33] 4. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has been significantly reduced. The arrival volume of ore at the port is at a high level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has decreased [36][37] Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a historically high level for the same period. The smelter's finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historically high level for the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44] 5. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period. The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [49][52][68] 6. Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are presented in the report, along with the profit and loss of zinc smelters in these countries [70][71][73]