锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：关注价格上方压力 强弱分析：中性 国内库存继续去化 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端逐渐复产。当下国产矿加工费集中在1200-1600/金属吨，下方调整空间 相对有限。同时进口窗口已经打开，近期Antamina锌精矿有20美元附近成交，普通 锌精矿报盘40-50美元/干吨，进口矿加工费仍有进一步下滑可能；临近年底，前期检 修的冶炼厂将陆续复产，预计1月锌锭供应量环比将出现增长； ◆ 需求季节性回落。镀锌、氧化锌、压铸锌合金订单持续低迷， ...

国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：23000一线相对均衡，等待新驱动 强弱分析：中性 锌产业链周度报告 | 数据 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 上周收盘价 | | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 沪锌主力 | 23065 | | -2.29% | 23070 | 0.02% | | | | | | LmeS-锌3 | 3078 | | -1.94% | - | - | | | | | | 【期货成交及持仓变动】 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：内外盘共振，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存继续去化 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减量。当下进口锌精矿亏损仍然较大，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产 矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC预计进一步下调。原料库存有限下，已经有炼厂规划减产 来缓解压力，其中减量贡献较大为云南、广西、广东、内蒙古、陕西、湖南等省份， 供应环比减量或在3-4万吨。 ◆ 消费端延续淡季。需求呈现季节性回落，下游开工率有所下滑，叠加锌价高位震荡， 持货商挺升水报 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年12月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：突破23000后上行动力不足，关注供应端扰动 强弱分析：中性偏强 国内库存继续去化 第 2 页 镀锌开工回升 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减量。当下进口锌精矿亏损仍然较大，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产 矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC预计进一步下调。原料库存有限下，已经有炼厂规划减产 来缓解压力，其中减量贡献较大为云南、广西、广东、内蒙古、陕西、湖南等省份， 供应环比减量或在3-4万吨。 ◆ 消费端延续淡季。需求呈现季节性回落，下游开工率有所下滑，叠加锌价高位震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [2] Report's Core Viewpoint - Zinc supply is decreasing while consumption remains stable, and there is still support below the price [2] - Domestic inventory is continuing to decline, and the operating rate of galvanizing has dropped [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,425, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,470, with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,051, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [6] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore, smelter finished products have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9] Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [11] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [13] 3. Trading Aspect Spot - The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M strengthening significantly [17][18] Spread - SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [20] Inventory - This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventory, a large decrease in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [24][30][32] Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a historical median level for the same period [33] 4. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has been significantly reduced. The arrival volume of ore at the port is at a high level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has decreased [36][37] Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a historically high level for the same period. The smelter's finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historically high level for the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44] 5. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period. The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [49][52][68] 6. Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are presented in the report, along with the profit and loss of zinc smelters in these countries [70][71][73]

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 国内库存小幅去化 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 锌：预期分化，内外矛盾难解，维持震荡观点 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减产明显。当下进口锌精矿亏损依旧较大，进口窗口关闭，对国产矿采购 需求进一步提升，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC下调 压力较大；从最新11月排产数据来看，云南、四川、陕西等地区减量扩大，另外关注 新疆地区新增产能投产，目前已平稳生产，增减相抵后产量或基本持平。 ◆ 消费端转入淡季。镀锌方面，市场需求逐步走弱， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Zinc is expected to experience short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to changes in domestic and overseas inventories. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [3]. - The domestic supply pressure remains high. Although some smelters plan to cut production, the increase from复产 of individual smelters may lead to an overall increase in production. The consumption peak season is coming to an end, with weakening demand in various downstream sectors. The zinc price shows an oscillatory pattern, with an increasingly prominent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices. The export window has opened, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to materialize. Follow - up attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and the resumption of overseas smelter production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9]. Profit - Zinc ore enterprises' profits are stable in the short - term and in the middle of the historical range. Smelting profits have declined and are also in the middle of the historical range. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12]. 开工 - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc smelting start - up rates have declined. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide start - up rates have increased but are at a relatively low to medium level in history [14]. 2. Trading Aspects Spot - The spot premium has shown differentiation. Overseas premiums are also differentiated, with a slight increase in the Singapore premium and a decline from a high level in LME CASH - 3M, with reduced fluctuations [18][20]. Spread - The Shanghai zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes at the far end [22]. Inventory - There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with continuous de - stocking and no sign of a turning point for inventory accumulation. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly, and the total global visible zinc inventory has also decreased slightly [26][30][32]. Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low. The processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of ore at ports is low, and smelter raw material inventories have decreased [36][37]. Refined Zinc - Smelting production has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have decreased but are still at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44]. Regenerated Zinc Raw Materials - Not summarized due to lack of clear key information in the content. 4. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly start - up rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [55][58][74]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are presented, but no clear key viewpoints are summarized from the content.

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Zinc shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic", and the export window has opened [2][3][5] - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventory continues, while the galvanizing operation rate has rebounded [3] - Domestic supply pressure remains high, with the traditional peak consumption season approaching its end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [5] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the night - session closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,942.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 88,687 lots, a decrease of 86,091 lots compared to the previous week; the open interest was 77,222 lots, a decrease of 29,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11,101 lots, a decrease of 5,565 lots; the open interest was 224,271 lots, an increase of 4,032 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6,673 tons to 67,317 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,677 tons to 109,627 tons; social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 162,700 tons; LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [10][11] 3.2.3 Operation Rate - The smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp and a significant change in the LME CASH - 3M structure [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - shaped structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The LME total inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a historical low. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased [39] - Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high [40] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased and is at a historical high. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historical high. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Secondary Zinc Raw Materials - Not comprehensively summarized in the report 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive, the downstream monthly operation rate has slightly rebounded, and most are at a historical low - to - median level. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [56][59][73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, but no comprehensive conclusion is drawn [74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of zinc is strong while demand is weak, and short - term macro guidance should be focused on [2][4] - The zinc market is neutral to weak [2] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and it is advisable to hold positive spread positions for the short - to medium - term (within a quarter) cautiously [4] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,270, with a weekly increase of 1.32%; the night - session closing price was 22,110, with a decline of 0.72%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,984.5, with a decline of 1.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 174,778, an increase of 48,062 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 106,534, a decrease of 19,552. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,666, an increase of 4,006; the open interest was 220,239, a decrease of 2,463 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3,071 to 60,644; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 8,940 to 106,950; social inventory decreased by 200 to 150,200; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,850 to 37,950, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased by 16.16% to 39.66%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while visible zinc ingot inventories have declined [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same historical period; refined zinc operation rate has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are at a historically low level [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot has been in a contango state. Overseas premiums have been relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][20] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [23] - **Inventory**: This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore; LME total inventory has decreased slightly in the short - term and is at a historically low level in the same period; CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory has remained stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same historical period [38] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly; domestic zinc ore production is at a historical medium level; imported ore processing fees have continued to rise, while domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same historical period [41][42] - **Refined Zinc**: Zinc alloy production is at a high level; smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same historical period. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [49][51] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials includes data on the operation rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills, and the average price of secondary zinc oxide [55][56][57][58] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [61] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same historical period [63][64] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [78] 6. Overseas Factors - Information on overseas factors includes European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, electricity prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries [80][81][82][83]