1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand improvement for zinc is limited, and the price shows a volatile performance. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The galvanizing start - up rate has a marginal increase [3][4]. - On the supply side, the supply is increasing. With the increase in zinc concentrate, the inventory of zinc concentrate in smelters and ports is relatively abundant, and the smelter profit is at a historical median. The supply pressure has increased, and the excess logic is gradually reflected in the social inventory accumulation. On the consumption side, it is still in the off - season, with insufficient new orders. Although there is some resilience in rigid demand, the demand improvement is very limited, and the industry start - up rate has little room to rise without more favorable policies. In the short term, the zinc price shows a volatile performance due to factors such as the increase in the inventory accumulation slope, the fading of domestic macro - sentiment, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For the internal - external strategy, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the domestic off - season, and the positive spread positions within the short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) can be continued to hold [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc main contract last week was 22,515, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,555, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2834, with a weekly increase of 3.83% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc main contract last Friday was 81,428, a decrease of 23,693 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 94,895, a decrease of 13,189 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 8402, a decrease of 5705 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 193,958, an increase of 4615 compared with the previous week [7]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 10.96 to - 0.23, an increase of 10.73. The bonded - area zinc premium changed from - 30 to 140, an increase of 170. The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc changed from 0 to - 35, a decrease of 35, etc. [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has increased and is at a median level in the same period in history. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, and both are at a medium - to - low level in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has a slight decline. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has an obvious change [17][23]. - **Price Difference**: The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at a low level shows a stable and rising trend, and the inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, with a short - term slight decrease and at a median level in the same period in history. The bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has a slight decline [31][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a median level in the same period in history [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: The import of zinc concentrate has declined. The domestic zinc ore production is at a median level in history. The recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and the smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: The smelting output has a marginal recovery. The smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy output is at a high level. The refined zinc import volume is at a historical median [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has a slight decline, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [54][57]. - The real estate is still at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price and the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price are presented, which may affect the zinc market through factors such as energy costs and production costs [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is weak [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of marginal increase in mine supply is gradually being realized, and the inventory of zinc concentrates at smelters and ports is relatively abundant. After some smelters resume production in May, the surplus logic may become more obvious [6] - The consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and the hedging effect of rush - export orders is limited. The downstream galvanizing sector's开工率 has decreased significantly, and downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices [6] - The expected increase in long - term supply and imports may confirm the inflection point of social inventory. The zinc market is expected to remain weak in the medium and long term. The spread between near - term contracts is under pressure to converge, and lending can be held. Long - short positions between domestic and foreign zinc prices can continue to be held [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - **Price and Price Change**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,500, with a weekly increase of 1.40%, and the closing price of last night's session was 22,425, with a decline of 0.33%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,686, with a weekly increase of 1.90% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 118,189, a decrease of 21,828 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 94,346, a decrease of 24,824. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 5,141, a decrease of 1,226, and the open interest was 224,623, an increase of 11,453 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 272 to 2,175; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 751 to 46,351; social inventory increased by 3,000 to 86,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,125 to 164,200; bonded area inventory decreased by 500 to 7,100 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot's visible inventory is relatively low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit has recovered to a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Operating Rate**: Zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; refined zinc monthly operating rate has rebounded to a high level in the same period; downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc operating rates have decreased and are at historically medium - low levels [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premium has slightly declined from a high level. Overseas premium is relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [16][17] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a B structure in the near - term and is relatively flat in the far - term [19] - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short term and is at a historical medium level. LME off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M [20][30] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [33] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees for domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium - high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [37][38] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has also marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [39][42] 5. Zinc Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [47] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has slightly recovered, and most are at historically medium - low levels compared to the same period [50] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 6. Overseas Factors - The report provides data on European electricity prices, natural gas futures prices, and EU carbon quota prices, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a weak rating to the zinc industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the zinc concentrate processing fee is expected to rise steadily. However, the increase in smelting start - up rate will suppress the upward slope of TC. The top of TC in the second quarter may be around 4000 yuan/ton. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the overall output still has the expectation of further increase [6]. - Domestic social inventory is positively correlated with zinc prices, and downstream raw material inventory is significantly negatively correlated with zinc prices. After the zinc price drops rapidly, downstream enterprises actively replenish inventory at low prices, but it is not driven by actual terminal orders. Domestic downstream orders show that domestic demand is relatively stable, and most overseas demand rush - export orders are less than the previous round. It is expected that the apparent consumption will peak and decline after April [6]. - The downstream demand for further replenishment is limited. The fundamentals are difficult to drive a sharp rebound in zinc prices. In the short term, after shock adjustment, a weak trend should be considered. The Back structure in the far - end may converge, and the long - short ratio of domestic and foreign zinc prices is appropriate, but structural losses need to be noted. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities brought by tariff negotiations and implementation [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has returned to a high level, while zinc ingot explicit inventory is low. Zinc ore to - port volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [9][40] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits have significantly recovered. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have recovered, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a relatively low level in the same period [11] - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a relatively low level in history. Zinc concentrate start - up rate has declined slightly, refined zinc monthly start - up rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc start - up rates have marginally recovered [13] 3.2 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premiums have fallen from high levels, and overseas premiums are relatively stable. The LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure, and the near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [17][19][21] - **Inventory**: Inventories are showing a downward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term increase and at a medium level in the same period in history. The off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc explicit inventory has declined. The domestic market's position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [26][31][34] 3.3 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have increased. The ore to - port volume is high, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [38][40] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profits have marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally increased. Refined zinc imports are at a medium - high level in history [41][44] 3.4 Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49] - **Downstream**: Downstream start - up rates have marginally recovered and are at a medium - low level in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [50][52] - **Terminal**: The power grid shows structural incremental demand [60] 3.5 Overseas Factors - European power prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which affect the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries [62]