锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 国内库存小幅去化 镀锌开工回升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 锌：预期分化，内外矛盾难解，维持震荡观点 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减产明显。当下进口锌精矿亏损依旧较大，进口窗口关闭，对国产矿采购 需求进一步提升，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC下调 压力较大；从最新11月排产数据来看，云南、四川、陕西等地区减量扩大，另外关注 新疆地区新增产能投产，目前已平稳生产，增减相抵后产量或基本持平。 ◆ 消费端转入淡季。镀锌方面，市场需求逐步走弱， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Zinc is expected to experience short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to changes in domestic and overseas inventories. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [3]. - The domestic supply pressure remains high. Although some smelters plan to cut production, the increase from复产 of individual smelters may lead to an overall increase in production. The consumption peak season is coming to an end, with weakening demand in various downstream sectors. The zinc price shows an oscillatory pattern, with an increasingly prominent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices. The export window has opened, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to materialize. Follow - up attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and the resumption of overseas smelter production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9]. Profit - Zinc ore enterprises' profits are stable in the short - term and in the middle of the historical range. Smelting profits have declined and are also in the middle of the historical range. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12]. 开工 - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc smelting start - up rates have declined. The downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide start - up rates have increased but are at a relatively low to medium level in history [14]. 2. Trading Aspects Spot - The spot premium has shown differentiation. Overseas premiums are also differentiated, with a slight increase in the Singapore premium and a decline from a high level in LME CASH - 3M, with reduced fluctuations [18][20]. Spread - The Shanghai zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes at the far end [22]. Inventory - There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with continuous de - stocking and no sign of a turning point for inventory accumulation. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly, and the total global visible zinc inventory has also decreased slightly [26][30][32]. Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [33]. 3. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low. The processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of ore at ports is low, and smelter raw material inventories have decreased [36][37]. Refined Zinc - Smelting production has increased and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have decreased but are still at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44]. Regenerated Zinc Raw Materials - Not summarized due to lack of clear key information in the content. 4. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly start - up rate of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [55][58][74]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity are presented, but no clear key viewpoints are summarized from the content.

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Zinc shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic", and the export window has opened [2][3][5] - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventory continues, while the galvanizing operation rate has rebounded [3] - Domestic supply pressure remains high, with the traditional peak consumption season approaching its end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure [5] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the night - session closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,942.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 88,687 lots, a decrease of 86,091 lots compared to the previous week; the open interest was 77,222 lots, a decrease of 29,312 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11,101 lots, a decrease of 5,565 lots; the open interest was 224,271 lots, an increase of 4,032 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6,673 tons to 67,317 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,677 tons to 109,627 tons; social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 162,700 tons; LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [10][11] 3.2.3 Operation Rate - The smelting operation rate has declined, and the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp and a significant change in the LME CASH - 3M structure [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - shaped structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The LME total inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a historical low. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased [39] - Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high [40] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased and is at a historical high. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historical high. Zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Secondary Zinc Raw Materials - Not comprehensively summarized in the report 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive, the downstream monthly operation rate has slightly rebounded, and most are at a historical low - to - median level. The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [56][59][73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, but no comprehensive conclusion is drawn [74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of zinc is strong while demand is weak, and short - term macro guidance should be focused on [2][4] - The zinc market is neutral to weak [2] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and it is advisable to hold positive spread positions for the short - to medium - term (within a quarter) cautiously [4] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,270, with a weekly increase of 1.32%; the night - session closing price was 22,110, with a decline of 0.72%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,984.5, with a decline of 1.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 174,778, an increase of 48,062 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 106,534, a decrease of 19,552. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,666, an increase of 4,006; the open interest was 220,239, a decrease of 2,463 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3,071 to 60,644; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 8,940 to 106,950; social inventory decreased by 200 to 150,200; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,850 to 37,950, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased by 16.16% to 39.66%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while visible zinc ingot inventories have declined [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same historical period; refined zinc operation rate has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are at a historically low level [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot has been in a contango state. Overseas premiums have been relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][20] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [23] - **Inventory**: This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore; LME total inventory has decreased slightly in the short - term and is at a historically low level in the same period; CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory has remained stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same historical period [38] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly; domestic zinc ore production is at a historical medium level; imported ore processing fees have continued to rise, while domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same historical period [41][42] - **Refined Zinc**: Zinc alloy production is at a high level; smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same historical period. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [49][51] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials includes data on the operation rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills, and the average price of secondary zinc oxide [55][56][57][58] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [61] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same historical period [63][64] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [78] 6. Overseas Factors - Information on overseas factors includes European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, electricity prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries [80][81][82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption side of zinc has slightly improved, and the operating rate has rebounded, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The inventory accumulation rhythm continues, and the galvanizing operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Domestic zinc supply has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, smelters and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant. However, there will be some maintenance in September, leading to a month - on - month contraction in supply. The consumption side has slightly improved, but terminal demand is relatively weak. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a narrow range, and in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. For internal and external strategies, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,305, with a weekly increase of 0.68%, and the night - session closing price was 22,300, with a decrease of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,956, with a weekly increase of 3.45%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 103,603, a decrease of 2,073 from the previous week, and the position was 97,697, a decrease of 13,613 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 last Friday was 14,507, an increase of 3,814 from the previous week, and the position was 204,806, an increase of 5,836 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 5,133 to 45,905, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7,617 to 94,649. Social inventory increased by 5,300 to 154,200. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,525 to 50,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have increased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level. Smelting profits are stable and at a medium - high historical level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The zinc concentrate operating rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The refined zinc operating rate has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing operating rate has decreased, the die - casting zinc operating rate has increased, and the zinc oxide operating rate has increased, all at relatively low historical levels [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][21]. - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C structure [23]. - **Inventory**: Inventory accumulation continues, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [31][37][40]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic position is at a medium level in the same period in history [41]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level. Imported ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees remain flat. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [44][45]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [52][54]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Some data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste steel daily consumption of steel mills are provided, but no overall summary is given [57][58][59]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [63]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history [66][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Real estate is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [79]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are provided, such as the European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in some European countries, but no overall summary is given [81][82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand improvement for zinc is limited, and the price shows a volatile performance. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The galvanizing start - up rate has a marginal increase [3][4]. - On the supply side, the supply is increasing. With the increase in zinc concentrate, the inventory of zinc concentrate in smelters and ports is relatively abundant, and the smelter profit is at a historical median. The supply pressure has increased, and the excess logic is gradually reflected in the social inventory accumulation. On the consumption side, it is still in the off - season, with insufficient new orders. Although there is some resilience in rigid demand, the demand improvement is very limited, and the industry start - up rate has little room to rise without more favorable policies. In the short term, the zinc price shows a volatile performance due to factors such as the increase in the inventory accumulation slope, the fading of domestic macro - sentiment, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For the internal - external strategy, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the domestic off - season, and the positive spread positions within the short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) can be continued to hold [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc main contract last week was 22,515, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,555, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2834, with a weekly increase of 3.83% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc main contract last Friday was 81,428, a decrease of 23,693 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 94,895, a decrease of 13,189 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 8402, a decrease of 5705 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 193,958, an increase of 4615 compared with the previous week [7]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 10.96 to - 0.23, an increase of 10.73. The bonded - area zinc premium changed from - 30 to 140, an increase of 170. The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc changed from 0 to - 35, a decrease of 35, etc. [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has increased and is at a median level in the same period in history. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, and both are at a medium - to - low level in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has a slight decline. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has an obvious change [17][23]. - **Price Difference**: The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at a low level shows a stable and rising trend, and the inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, with a short - term slight decrease and at a median level in the same period in history. The bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has a slight decline [31][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a median level in the same period in history [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: The import of zinc concentrate has declined. The domestic zinc ore production is at a median level in history. The recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and the smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: The smelting output has a marginal recovery. The smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy output is at a high level. The refined zinc import volume is at a historical median [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has a slight decline, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [54][57]. - The real estate is still at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price and the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price are presented, which may affect the zinc market through factors such as energy costs and production costs [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]