1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has fundamental support at the bottom, but risks are still brewing, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore is at the end of the expansion cycle, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise [3]. - Currently, the zinc price has basically priced in previous disturbances. If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are still brewing. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,935, with a weekly decline of 4.99%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,860, with a night - session decline of 0.33%. The LmeS - zinc3 closed at 3056 last week, with a weekly decline of 7.21% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 159,743, an increase of 73,802 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 106,130, an increase of 30,939. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,533, an increase of 9,477, and the open interest was 208,190, a decrease of 7,216 [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 102,509, an increase of 16,416; SHFE total zinc inventory was 152,266, an increase of 4,918; social inventory was 266,100, a decrease of 2,700; LME zinc inventory was 117,675, an increase of 19,775; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Zinc concentrate enterprise production profits are stable and at historical highs, refining zinc enterprise production profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11]. - **Operating Rate**: Zinc concentrate and refining zinc operating rates have declined and are at historical lows in the same period. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have increased but are at medium - low levels in history [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have rebounded. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc has strengthened [21]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight de - stocking this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, LME total inventory has increased, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has decreased to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global zinc visible inventory has rebounded significantly [24][30][32]. - **Futures**: The domestic long - position volume is at the median of the historical same period [33]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at the median of the historical same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38]. - **Imports and Exports**: The refined zinc import profit and loss, import volume, and export volume are presented in the report, and the refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [40][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly operating rates have declined slightly and are mostly at historical lows in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also presented in the report [46][50]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in some European countries, are presented in the report [63][64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Volatile [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc downstream exports still have resilience, but may face pressure in the medium - term. Most manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about the future market. It is necessary to monitor whether regions like Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Australia can fill the demand gap after the shrinkage of Middle - East orders due to geopolitical disturbances and the release of postponed demand from last year's policy. In the long - term, the cash - flow of companies exporting to the Middle East may face pressure in the second quarter, and anti - dumping measures will affect export orders in the medium - to - long term. Overall, the possibility of weak or pressured export demand is increasing. [3][35] - In terms of trading strategies, for single - side trading, manage positions well in the short - term and focus on buying opportunities during corrections in the medium - term. For arbitrage trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for monthly spreads and maintain a long domestic - short overseas positive arbitrage strategy in the medium - term. [3][38] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Research Objects - The research was conducted on galvanizing and zinc oxide enterprises in Weifang and Zibo, Shandong. These enterprises are large - to - medium - sized, with annual galvanized product output of 20 - 290 million tons and annual zinc oxide production capacity of 3 - 10 million tons, comprehensively reflecting the current demand evolution pattern. [12] 3.2. Core Research Conclusions and Analysis - Galvanized and color - coated exports are mainly for civil construction, and overseas requirements for zinc coating thickness are becoming stricter. Overseas markets mainly use zinc products for civil construction, and many countries have set requirements for zinc coating thickness. In contrast, domestic zinc coating thickness is generally lower. Export galvanized products have maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, and the actual zinc consumption per unit may have increased. [17][18] - Orders for large, medium, and small factories are differentiated, and raw material inventories are generally low. Medium - and large - sized enterprises maintain full production with stable orders, while some export - oriented enterprises have over one - month order backlogs but with year - on - year differences. Some orders postponed from last year were released in Q1 2026. Manufacturers are cautious about Q2 demand, and raw material inventories are low, indicating potential upward pressure on zinc and black metal prices. [20] - The probability of export shocks is increasing, with dual pressures from geopolitical conflicts and anti - dumping. The US - Iran conflict has negatively affected exports to the Middle East, with difficulties in customer communication, delayed shipments, and inventory backlogs. Rising freight costs and anti - dumping measures have also impacted exports. However, export orders to Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea have increased recently. [24][25] - The zinc oxide industry is facing intensified competition, and it is difficult to find a blue ocean overseas. The industry suffers from raw material shortages, thin profits, and is highly affected by zinc price fluctuations, forcing enterprises to expand overseas. But overseas markets are also competitive, with only Indonesia having some room. The domestic capacity expansion willingness is low, and if the raw material shortage persists, the industry will face reshuffling. [28][32] 3.3. Summary and Outlook - In the short - term, zinc downstream exports can maintain some resilience, but medium - term pressure signals are emerging. The cash - flow of companies exporting to the Middle East may face slight pressure in the next quarter, and anti - dumping measures will affect export orders in the medium - to - long term. It is necessary to monitor whether overseas markets can accept price increases due to policies. [35] - Fundamentally, short - term domestic processing fees are rising seasonally, while import processing fees are under pressure. The supply of zinc concentrate remains tight. On the demand side, domestic social inventories have accumulated seasonally, and downstream resumption of work is slow, while overseas inventories are gradually decreasing. [36] - In terms of trading, zinc may enter a volatile adjustment period in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips as geopolitical situations may strengthen the resource attribute of zinc concentrate. [38] 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Galvanizing Enterprise A - Basic situation: Mainly produces galvanized products, almost all for export. It has 4 production lines and plans to launch a new aluminized zinc line this year. The export market is mainly in Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East, and products are used for civil construction. [43] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with order backlogs of over one - and - a - half months. The new aluminized zinc line is in response to overseas demand. Some export orders are delayed due to rising freight costs. The impact of the "buy - order export" policy has basically been eliminated. Near - term orders are expected to be good, but long - term uncertainty is high. Raw materials are mainly sourced from Chihong and Huxin, with a half - month inventory. Profits are thin, and there is little hedging. [44][45][49] 3.4.2. Galvanizing Enterprise B - Basic situation: Produces aluminized zinc and galvanized plates, with 80 - 90% of products for export. It has 3 production lines, with one planned for renovation in 2025. [52] - Research situation: Currently operating two production lines, with order backlogs of 40 - 50 days. Orders have declined compared to last year due to the "buy - order export" policy but are expected to recover. Cautious about Q2 demand. Zinc ingots are mainly sourced from Tianjin and Hebei, and the aluminized zinc profit is higher. Raw material inventory is about 50 - 60 tons, and finished product inventory is about 20,000 tons. [53][54] 3.4.3. Galvanizing and Color - Coating Enterprise C - Basic situation: Produces galvanized, aluminized zinc, zinc - aluminum - magnesium, color - coated, and cold - rolled products. It has large - scale production capacity, and the terminal consumption includes various fields. The export market includes multiple regions, and the recent Middle - East exports are affected. [56] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with products mainly for domestic sales. Orders are stable, and the company expects good demand this year. Raw materials are mainly self - produced, and the long - term order ratio is high. Profits are stable, with raw material inventory of 7 - 80,000 tons. Not participating in hedging but concerned about the futures market. [57][58][62] 3.4.4. Galvanizing Enterprise D - Basic situation: Produces galvanized and aluminized zinc products, all for export. It has a galvanizing and an aluminized zinc line, with the aluminized zinc order decreasing in recent years. [65] - Research situation: Order backlogs are 30 - 35 days, a decrease compared to last year. The "buy - order export" policy has little impact. Raw materials are mainly Chihong zinc, and profits are decreasing year by year. There is pressure on short - term cash - flow, and no inventory is maintained. Not participating in hedging. [66][67][68] 3.4.5. Zinc Oxide Enterprise E - Basic situation: A private enterprise with an annual zinc oxide production capacity of 100,000 tons. It has invested in a project in Cambodia and may build a plant in Egypt in the future. The domestic zinc oxide industry is highly competitive, and raw material prices are rising. [70] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with an order cycle of about one week. Zinc ingots and zinc slag each account for about 50% of raw materials. Profits are mainly affected by zinc ingots, and the finished product inventory is about 1,000 tons. Not participating in hedging, and the environmental protection is in line with the standards. [71][73] 3.4.6. Resource Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise F - Basic situation: A solid waste and hazardous waste recycling enterprise, mainly for the rubber and tire industries. It has waste treatment capacity and produces zinc alloy and other products. The regeneration - to - primary zinc ratio is about 7:3, and the export demand for zinc powder in zinc - manganese batteries may increase. [74][75] - Research situation: Order backlogs are about one month, and orders are stable. Raw materials are mainly secondary zinc oxide, and the long - term order ratio is about 80%. Profits are thin, with raw material inventory of about 50 - 60 tons and finished product inventory of about 20,000 tons. Not participating in hedging, and the environmental protection pressure is controllable. [76][77][79] 3.4.7. Zinc Oxide Enterprise G - Basic situation: With an annual zinc oxide production capacity of 60,000 tons, the downstream is mainly tire enterprises. It believes that the industry is highly competitive and plans to expand in Indonesia. [81] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity. The long - term tire demand is weak, and domestic production cuts may become a trend. Raw materials are purchased flexibly, and there are no long - term orders. Profits are continuously compressed, with a hedging ratio of about 50 - 60%. The environmental protection pressure is relatively small. [82][83][86] 3.4.8. Zinc Oxide Enterprise H - Basic situation: Mainly produces nano - zinc oxide, mainly for rubber tires and feed additives. It has the capacity to produce high - end products but has low order - taking willingness. The parent company has sulfuric acid production capacity. It has no plan to expand overseas. [87] - Research situation: Operating at full capacity, with order backlogs of 1 - 2 months. Profits are under pressure, and it is cautious about the short - term market but optimistic about the long - term rubber - grade zinc oxide demand. Raw materials are mainly from Hebei, and there is no hedging. The environmental protection meets the standards. [88][89][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is rated as neutral to weak, with unexpected inventory accumulation in China and a slow recovery in downstream consumption [2][3][5] - In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the inventory inflection point has not appeared. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices, with the TC operation center expected to decline and the zinc price operation center expected to rise [5] - If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are brewing. Attention should be paid to medium - term internal and external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 24,140 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 3,293.5 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.89% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 85,941 lots, a decrease of 47,394 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 75,191 lots, a decrease of 10,125 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 9,416 lots, a decrease of 6,833 lots, and the open interest was 216,509 lots, a decrease of 2,689 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 9,643 tons to 86,093 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 12,427 tons to 147,348 tons. Social inventory increased by 12,500 tons to 268,800 tons. LME zinc inventory increased by 2,925 tons to 97,900 tons, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories are at a high level, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at a historical low. Zinc ore enterprise profits are stable and at a historical high, smelting profits are stable and at a historical low, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at a low level compared with the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a low level compared with the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with the Singapore premium remaining flat, the Antwerp premium rising, and the LME CASH - 3M declining [17][19] - **Spread**: The contango structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21] - **Inventory**: There has been a significant inventory accumulation this week, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase in total inventory. The注销仓单 ratio has decreased and returned to a historical low level. Bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [24][30][32] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium - low level compared with the same period in history [33] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level compared with the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared with the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level compared with the same period in history. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc import volume and export volume data are provided, and refined zinc import profits and losses are also presented [40] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the average price of secondary zinc oxide, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills are provided [42] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [46] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of downstream industries has declined slightly and is mostly at a low level compared with the same period in history [50] - **Downstream Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Data on downstream raw material and finished product inventories are provided [52][55] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, European electricity prices, and zinc smelter profits and losses in European countries are provided [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand dynamics. The overseas short - squeeze in the zinc market has ended, and the domestic destocking pace will slow down. In the short term, prices may enter a period of consolidation. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space will determine the upside potential of prices. With the end of the zinc mine expansion cycle, a tight balance in the zinc mine market may become the norm next year, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upper price pressure in the short term and mid - term opportunities to buy on dips [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc's main contract last week was 23,275, with a weekly increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was also 23,275, with a night - session increase of 0.00%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 3,127, with an increase of 1.31% [6][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc's main contract last Friday was 154,943 lots, a decrease of 16,575 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 86,579 lots, a decrease of 8,618 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 228,130 lots, an increase of 1,079 lots [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. The inventory of zinc ore, smelter finished products, and zinc ingots has shown a downward trend, while the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [9][36]. - **Profit**: Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Zinc mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high historical level, smelting profits have rebounded to a historical median level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level compared to the same period [11][12]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization have declined to a medium level compared to the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide capacity utilization have shown mixed trends, generally at a medium - low historical level [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation, with the Singapore premium remaining stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has declined from a high level and changed to a Contango structure [17][18]. - **Spread**: The Contango structure of SHFE Zinc has flattened [20]. - **Inventory**: There has been a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventory. The proportion of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low level. The bonded - area inventory has remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has significantly increased [28][34][36]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [37]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has decreased significantly. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories have increased [40][41]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a medium level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [47][48]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials mainly includes the operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag in Tianjin, and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills [51][52][53]. 3.5 Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly capacity utilization of downstream industries has slightly increased, mostly at a medium - low level compared to the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [59][62]. - **End - Users**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [76]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity, as well as the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries, are presented, but no specific trends or conclusions are drawn in the summary [77][78][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [2] Report's Core Viewpoint - Zinc supply is decreasing while consumption remains stable, and there is still support below the price [2] - Domestic inventory is continuing to decline, and the operating rate of galvanizing has dropped [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,425, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,470, with a night - session increase of 0.20%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,051, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [6] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison Inventory - Zinc ore, smelter finished products have declined from high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [9] Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level [11] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [13] 3. Trading Aspect Spot - The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have weakened. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the Singapore premium remaining stable and LME CASH - 3M strengthening significantly [17][18] Spread - SHFE Zinc maintains a C structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [20] Inventory - This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the position - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total LME inventory, a large decrease in the cancelled warrant ratio to a historical low. The bonded area inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [24][30][32] Futures - The domestic long - position volume is at a historical median level for the same period [33] 4. Supply Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, the processing fee for imported ore has decreased this week, and the processing fee for domestic ore has been significantly reduced. The arrival volume of ore at the port is at a high level, and the smelter's raw material inventory has decreased [36][37] Refined Zinc - Smelting output has declined and is at a historically high level for the same period. The smelter's finished product inventory has decreased and is at a historically high level for the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [44] 5. Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period. The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [49][52][68] 6. Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in the UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are presented in the report, along with the profit and loss of zinc smelters in these countries [70][71][73]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co-Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] - Date: November 23, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Zinc supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2][5] - The domestic zinc market shows a pattern of small inventory reduction and a decline in galvanizing starts [3] - In the strategy, the internal and external reverse arbitrage has a certain profit - loss ratio, but the driving logic within the year is not strong, and participation should be cautious [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 22,395 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%; the night - session closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,992 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.75% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 74,639 lots, a decrease of 48,993 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 52,299 lots, a decrease of 47,854 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 12,602 lots, a decrease of 14,959 lots; the open interest was 218,189 lots, a decrease of 9,321 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased by 1,144 tons, the total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 545 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,200 tons, the LME zinc inventory increased by 8,350 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons [6] 2. Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at the historical median [10] - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc smelting start - up rate has declined, and the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low - to - medium level [12] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have significantly strengthened. Overseas premiums are differentiated, with Singapore's premium remaining stable, and LME CASH - 3M remaining around 120 US dollars [16][17] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far end [19] - **Inventory**: There has been a small reduction in inventory this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total LME inventory has increased [21][25] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at the historical median for the same period [28] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production has increased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. The arrival of zinc ore at ports is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventories have decreased [31][32] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has rebounded and is at a high level for the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have decreased and are at a high level for the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [39] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [45] - **Downstream**: The monthly start - up rate of downstream industries has slightly declined, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level for the same period [48] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [65] 6. Overseas Factors - **Energy Prices**: The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity have shown certain fluctuations, which have an impact on the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [67][68][69]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of zinc is strong while demand is weak, and short - term macro guidance should be focused on [2][4] - The zinc market is neutral to weak [2] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and it is advisable to hold positive spread positions for the short - to medium - term (within a quarter) cautiously [4] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,270, with a weekly increase of 1.32%; the night - session closing price was 22,110, with a decline of 0.72%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,984.5, with a decline of 1.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 174,778, an increase of 48,062 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 106,534, a decrease of 19,552. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,666, an increase of 4,006; the open interest was 220,239, a decrease of 2,463 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3,071 to 60,644; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 8,940 to 106,950; social inventory decreased by 200 to 150,200; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,850 to 37,950, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased by 16.16% to 39.66%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while visible zinc ingot inventories have declined [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same historical period; refined zinc operation rate has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are at a historically low level [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot has been in a contango state. Overseas premiums have been relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][20] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [23] - **Inventory**: This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore; LME total inventory has decreased slightly in the short - term and is at a historically low level in the same period; CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory has remained stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same historical period [38] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly; domestic zinc ore production is at a historical medium level; imported ore processing fees have continued to rise, while domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same historical period [41][42] - **Refined Zinc**: Zinc alloy production is at a high level; smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same historical period. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [49][51] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials includes data on the operation rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills, and the average price of secondary zinc oxide [55][56][57][58] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [61] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same historical period [63][64] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [78] 6. Overseas Factors - Information on overseas factors includes European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, electricity prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries [80][81][82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption side of zinc has slightly improved, and the operating rate has rebounded, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The inventory accumulation rhythm continues, and the galvanizing operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Domestic zinc supply has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, smelters and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant. However, there will be some maintenance in September, leading to a month - on - month contraction in supply. The consumption side has slightly improved, but terminal demand is relatively weak. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a narrow range, and in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. For internal and external strategies, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,305, with a weekly increase of 0.68%, and the night - session closing price was 22,300, with a decrease of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,956, with a weekly increase of 3.45%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 103,603, a decrease of 2,073 from the previous week, and the position was 97,697, a decrease of 13,613 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 last Friday was 14,507, an increase of 3,814 from the previous week, and the position was 204,806, an increase of 5,836 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 5,133 to 45,905, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7,617 to 94,649. Social inventory increased by 5,300 to 154,200. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,525 to 50,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have increased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level. Smelting profits are stable and at a medium - high historical level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The zinc concentrate operating rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The refined zinc operating rate has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing operating rate has decreased, the die - casting zinc operating rate has increased, and the zinc oxide operating rate has increased, all at relatively low historical levels [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][21]. - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C structure [23]. - **Inventory**: Inventory accumulation continues, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [31][37][40]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic position is at a medium level in the same period in history [41]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level. Imported ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees remain flat. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [44][45]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [52][54]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Some data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste steel daily consumption of steel mills are provided, but no overall summary is given [57][58][59]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [63]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history [66][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Real estate is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [79]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are provided, such as the European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in some European countries, but no overall summary is given [81][82][83].