风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 淡化总量，追求效能——理解 12 月政治局 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 非美地区进口需求韧性绝非无源之水： | 2025-12-02 | | --- | --- | | 2026 年出口展望 | | | 难有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consolidating and expanding the positive momentum of economic recovery in China, with a focus on achieving annual economic and social development goals through effective macroeconomic policies and stimulating domestic demand [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation, assess policy impacts, and stabilize market expectations [6]. - Key strategies include strengthening domestic circulation, stimulating consumption, increasing effective investment, and promoting the construction of a unified national market [6][7]. - The government aims to release demand in the real estate market and improve living conditions through urban renewal and renovation projects [6]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment - The State Council's recent meeting confirmed the significant effectiveness of the "Two New" policies in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, and promoting transformation [7][8]. - From April 2024 to July 2025, the total investment driven by equipment updates is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement [8]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has led to over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, with retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment increasing by 22%-30% [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift towards interest rate cuts if economic conditions change, marking a significant policy stance [9]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen above 90%, with projections of cumulative cuts of 75-100 basis points by 2025 [9]. Group 4: Personal Pension Reforms - New regulations effective September 1 will lower the threshold for accessing personal pensions, allowing for more diverse withdrawal scenarios [10][11]. - The changes aim to alleviate the financial burden of medical expenses and support individuals facing unemployment or living on minimum income [10][11]. Group 5: Investment Environment for Foreign Investors - The central bank plans to simplify the investment process for foreign investors entering the Chinese market, enhancing the overall investment environment [12]. Group 6: Growth in Computing Power - The China Computing Conference forecasts a growth of over 40% in the country's intelligent computing power by 2025, indicating a significant expansion in digital infrastructure [13]. - The integration of intelligent computing with cutting-edge technologies like quantum computing is expected to enhance China's global competitiveness in the digital economy [13].