热点聚焦 FOCUS 0 李强、巩固拓展经济回升同好势头,努力元成全年经济社会友展日标 重大会议 MEETINGS 重大政策 POLICES 233 | 李强:努力完成全年 鲍威尔为美联储 NGHUA PBCSF 经济社会发展目标 降息打开大门 2025年第34折 总第233期 FInancial 2025年8月25日 Weekly 每周金融评论 . . Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 目录 CONTENTS ◎ 个人养老金领取"降门槛"新增3种领取情形,9月1日起实施 重大事件s ◎ 中国算力大会:预计2025年我国智能算力规模增长将超过40% ◎ 国常会:"两新"政策、在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等 方面取得明显成效 ◎ 鲍威尔:如果经济前景和风险天平开始转向，美联储将相应地调 整政策 热点 聚焦 李强：巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标 01 8月18日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议。李强强调，要进一步提升宏观政策实施效能，深入评估政策实施情 况，增强政策针对性有效性，及时回应市场关切，稳定市场预期。要抓住关键着力点，做强国内大循环，以国内大循环的内 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as high-level fluctuations; glass and soda ash are rated as fluctuations [2]. - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as upward trends; SSE 50 is rated as a rebound; CSI 300 is rated as fluctuations; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as fluctuations, with the 10 - year treasury bond showing a weakening trend; gold and silver are rated as high - level fluctuations [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as consolidation; logs are rated as range fluctuations; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as fluctuating upward; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2 are rated as strongly fluctuating; soybean No. 1 is rated as weakly fluctuating [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as weakly fluctuating [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as fluctuations; PX is rated as on - hold; PTA is rated as fluctuations; MEG is rated as buy - on - dips; PR and PF are rated as on - hold [10]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, with high - level fluctuations expected. Coal coke has limited short - term adjustment amplitudes, and it's recommended to buy after corrections. Rolled steel has supply reduction expectations, and short - term steel prices are supported by macro and policy factors. Glass has no obvious improvement in short - term supply - demand patterns, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it's recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. Treasury bond prices are falling, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp shows a supply - demand weak pattern and is expected to consolidate. Logs have limited supply pressure and are expected to range - fluctuate. Oils are expected to fluctuate upward, but attention should be paid to correction risks. Meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and arrival conditions [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to decline further, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate due to increased supply and weak consumption [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Natural rubber prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to supply - side benefits. PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly increased, terminal demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted trading limits, demand is weak, coal mine inventories are at a low level, and short - term adjustment amplitudes are limited [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: Tangshan's steel mill production - restriction policies are clear, supply reduction is expected, demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, supply - demand patterns have not improved, inventories are increasing, and long - term demand is difficult to recover [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Indexes showed different trends last trading day, funds flowed in and out of different sectors, and it's recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields are rising, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Pricing mechanisms are changing, affected by multiple factors, and high - level fluctuations are expected [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, cost support is weakening, demand is in the off - season, and consolidation is expected [6]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are relatively stable, supply pressure is not large, inventories are decreasing, and cost support is increasing, with range fluctuations expected [6]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventories are increasing, exports are strong, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and oils are expected to fluctuate upward [6]. - **Meal Products**: US soybean planting area has decreased, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side trading weights are declining, demand - side prices are falling, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate [8]. Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: Supply - side factors are improving, demand is relatively stable, inventories are decreasing, and prices are expected to run strongly [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stimulating domestic demand through various measures, including urban renewal and housing renovation to release improvement demand [1] Group 1: Macro Policy Implementation - The government aims to improve the effectiveness of macro policy implementation and enhance the targeting and effectiveness of these policies [1] - There is a commitment to timely respond to market concerns and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Emphasis is placed on strengthening domestic circulation to counteract uncertainties in international circulation [1] - The government plans to stimulate consumption potential by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service and new consumption [1] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - There is a push to expand effective investment, particularly in major projects that can lead and drive economic growth [1] - The focus will be on adapting investments to meet changing demands, particularly in human resources and public services [1] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market and promote urban renewal, specifically targeting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1] - The approach is multi-faceted to effectively release improvement demand in the housing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, focusing on the coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies to enhance policy effectiveness and stimulate consumption and investment [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The implementation of a more proactive macro policy requires a focus on strengthening the coordination of various policies, ensuring consistency in direction, and utilizing a "combination punch" approach to enhance policy effectiveness [1] - There is a call for significant fiscal measures, including the introduction of "real money" to support consumption initiatives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods [1] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Support - To boost consumption, it is essential to increase the availability of consumer loans and diversify financial products to better meet residents' credit needs [1] - Effective investment expansion necessitates the use of ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds to increase government investment scale, while also encouraging private investment through government-led initiatives and policy incentives [1] - There is a need to enhance financial support for the real economy, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real sector and provide funding assurance for stable investment [1]