热点聚焦 FOCUS 0 李强、巩固拓展经济回升同好势头,努力元成全年经济社会友展日标 重大会议 MEETINGS 重大政策 POLICES 233 | 李强:努力完成全年 鲍威尔为美联储 NGHUA PBCSF 经济社会发展目标 降息打开大门 2025年第34折 总第233期 FInancial 2025年8月25日 Weekly 每周金融评论 . . Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 目录 CONTENTS ◎ 个人养老金领取"降门槛"新增3种领取情形,9月1日起实施 重大事件s ◎ 中国算力大会:预计2025年我国智能算力规模增长将超过40% ◎ 国常会:"两新"政策、在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等 方面取得明显成效 ◎ 鲍威尔:如果经济前景和风险天平开始转向，美联储将相应地调 整政策 热点 聚焦 李强：巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标 01 8月18日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院第九次全体会议。李强强调，要进一步提升宏观政策实施效能，深入评估政策实施情 况，增强政策针对性有效性，及时回应市场关切，稳定市场预期。要抓住关键着力点，做强国内大循环，以国内大循环的内 ...

展望后市，白酒板块能否迎来反转？ 风险提示：文中提及的指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议。任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指 标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。基金投资有风险，基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现，基金管 理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎。 政策利好驱动，释放积极信号。今年以来，从中央到地方密集出台促消费举措，8月重要会议强调"抓住关键着力点做强国内大循环，持续激发消费潜力"， 同步三部门印发个人消费贷款财政贴息政策方案，为消费板块注入强心剂。此前禁酒令使得白酒宴席消费陷入低迷，6月中旬以来官媒对于层层加码问题发 声，宴席与礼品场景消费陆续复苏。 来源：金融界 白酒板块近期升势明显，酒鬼酒连续两日涨停，白酒LOF（161725）实现四连阳。今日板块整体调整，酒鬼酒逆势涨8%，贵州茅台、泸州老窖、五粮液均 飘绿，白酒LOF（161725）跌0.7%。 方正证券指出，在政策回暖与基本面复苏双重驱动下，白酒板块已完成筑底，估值重塑与业绩逐步修复可期。 当前白酒板块估值已处底部，白酒 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74 [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% to 2607.65, and the STAR 50 Index saw a significant rise of 3.23% to 1148.15 [1] - The overall market showed a recovery trend with the total trading volume reaching 24,484.14 billion, a decrease of 1,922.65 billion from the previous trading day [7] Economic Insights - The LPR remained stable in August, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% [15][16] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 616 billion, injecting liquidity into the market [17][18] - China's imports and exports to other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization increased by 3% year-on-year in the first seven months, reaching 2.11 trillion [22][23] Industry Dynamics - Xiaomi's subsidiary, Hanxing Chuangtou, invested in Weitai Robotics, indicating a growing interest in the robotics sector [26] - Beijing aims to become a global benchmark city for robot applications, with the humanoid robot industry accounting for about one-third of the national market [28] - The railway procurement platform announced the second batch of tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains for 2025, including 108 sets of standard trains and 30 sets of cold-resistant trains [30] - A meeting on the photovoltaic industry emphasized the need for market regulation and the elimination of low-price competition, as production in several segments saw significant declines [32] Company Updates - Huadong Medicine reported a net profit of 1.815 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, with total revenue reaching 21.675 billion [35][36] - Kolyuan achieved a net profit of 51 million in H1 2025, a remarkable increase of 187.23% year-on-year, driven by growth in HEV battery and energy storage sectors [44][45] - Yanghe Co. experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2025, with figures of 14.796 billion and 4.344 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 35.32% and 45.34% year-on-year [39][40]

Economic News - The State Council emphasizes enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations, focusing on domestic circulation and effective investment expansion [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40% [2] - From January to July 2025, national public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, with tax revenue declining by 0.3% [3] - Trade with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries reached 247.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase [4] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 0.7% decline in government fund budget revenue from January to July 2025 [5] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 62.5% year-on-year in July 2025 [6] - The central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased loan quotas [7] Important Company Information - JD.com has over 150,000 full-time delivery riders, advocating for social security benefits for gig workers [6] - Dongfeng Group is selling a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine Company [6] - Leap Motor reported a 174% increase in revenue to 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 30 million yuan [6] - SoftBank announced a 2 billion USD investment in Intel, reflecting confidence in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6] - Kandi Technologies has entered into a partnership with CATL to supply battery swap stations for commercial vehicles [6][7] Industry Analysis Coal Industry - Coking coal prices have risen significantly, with the price index reaching 1340.16 yuan/ton, a 17.44% increase [8] - Coking coal inventory at three ports decreased by 14.06% month-on-month [11] - Independent coking plants saw an increase in inventory but a decrease in average available days [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises rose to 74.03% [10] - The demand side shows a potential increase in demand driven by hydroelectric projects [11] Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In July 2025, pig prices fluctuated, with live pig prices averaging 14.91 yuan/kg, a 1.72% increase [13] - The number of breeding sows showed a slight increase, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [14] - Policy measures are focused on reducing production capacity and controlling weight, which may stabilize prices in the long term [15] - Major pig farming companies reported varying sales prices and volumes, with some experiencing a decline in output [16] Machinery Industry - Parker New Materials specializes in high-end metal forging products, serving various industries including aerospace and energy [18] - The company reported a revenue of 7.72 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2.95% increase year-on-year [19] - The demand for high-precision forging products is expected to grow, improving the company's product structure and profitability [19] - China's energy cost advantages in electricity and natural gas may help the company capture overseas market share [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has increased by over 5%, currently trading at 9.6 HKD with a transaction volume of 172 million HKD, following the announcement from the State Council's ninth plenary session to stimulate consumer potential and remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations for Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue in the first half of 2025 to decline by 38.3% to 41.9%, and adjusted net profit to decrease by 39% to 40% [1] - New products such as "Dazhen" and "Niushi Beer" are anticipated to contribute incremental growth and improve marginal growth rates for the company [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu is recognized as a leading sauce-flavored liquor brand on an upward trend, with the new flagship product "Dazhen" expected to significantly enhance performance due to innovative business and marketing strategies [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) increased by over 5%, reaching 9.6 HKD with a trading volume of 172 million HKD [1] - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasized the need to continuously stimulate consumer potential and systematically remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector [1] - Haitong Securities forecasts a significant decline in the white liquor industry, with expected revenue for 25H1 decreasing by 38.3%-41.9% and adjusted net profit dropping by 39%-40% [1] Group 2 - ZheShang Securities views Zhenjiu Lidu as a leading brand in the sauce-flavored liquor sector, with the new product "Dazhen" expected to contribute significantly to performance due to innovative marketing and business models [1] - The new product "Dazhen" is anticipated to become a "phenomenal blockbuster" and drive marginal improvements in growth [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as high-level fluctuations; glass and soda ash are rated as fluctuations [2]. - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as upward trends; SSE 50 is rated as a rebound; CSI 300 is rated as fluctuations; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as fluctuations, with the 10 - year treasury bond showing a weakening trend; gold and silver are rated as high - level fluctuations [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as consolidation; logs are rated as range fluctuations; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as fluctuating upward; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2 are rated as strongly fluctuating; soybean No. 1 is rated as weakly fluctuating [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as weakly fluctuating [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as fluctuations; PX is rated as on - hold; PTA is rated as fluctuations; MEG is rated as buy - on - dips; PR and PF are rated as on - hold [10]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, with high - level fluctuations expected. Coal coke has limited short - term adjustment amplitudes, and it's recommended to buy after corrections. Rolled steel has supply reduction expectations, and short - term steel prices are supported by macro and policy factors. Glass has no obvious improvement in short - term supply - demand patterns, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it's recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. Treasury bond prices are falling, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp shows a supply - demand weak pattern and is expected to consolidate. Logs have limited supply pressure and are expected to range - fluctuate. Oils are expected to fluctuate upward, but attention should be paid to correction risks. Meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and arrival conditions [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to decline further, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate due to increased supply and weak consumption [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Natural rubber prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to supply - side benefits. PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly increased, terminal demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted trading limits, demand is weak, coal mine inventories are at a low level, and short - term adjustment amplitudes are limited [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: Tangshan's steel mill production - restriction policies are clear, supply reduction is expected, demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, supply - demand patterns have not improved, inventories are increasing, and long - term demand is difficult to recover [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Indexes showed different trends last trading day, funds flowed in and out of different sectors, and it's recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields are rising, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Pricing mechanisms are changing, affected by multiple factors, and high - level fluctuations are expected [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, cost support is weakening, demand is in the off - season, and consolidation is expected [6]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are relatively stable, supply pressure is not large, inventories are decreasing, and cost support is increasing, with range fluctuations expected [6]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventories are increasing, exports are strong, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and oils are expected to fluctuate upward [6]. - **Meal Products**: US soybean planting area has decreased, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side trading weights are declining, demand - side prices are falling, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate [8]. Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: Supply - side factors are improving, demand is relatively stable, inventories are decreasing, and prices are expected to run strongly [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stimulating domestic demand through various measures, including urban renewal and housing renovation to release improvement demand [1] Group 1: Macro Policy Implementation - The government aims to improve the effectiveness of macro policy implementation and enhance the targeting and effectiveness of these policies [1] - There is a commitment to timely respond to market concerns and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Emphasis is placed on strengthening domestic circulation to counteract uncertainties in international circulation [1] - The government plans to stimulate consumption potential by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service and new consumption [1] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - There is a push to expand effective investment, particularly in major projects that can lead and drive economic growth [1] - The focus will be on adapting investments to meet changing demands, particularly in human resources and public services [1] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market and promote urban renewal, specifically targeting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1] - The approach is multi-faceted to effectively release improvement demand in the housing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 government work report prioritizes "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand," emphasizing the implementation of specific measures to stimulate consumption [1] Group 1: Financial Industry's Role - Financial institutions have been actively supporting consumption through diversified methods such as consumer credit, payment settlement, scenario finance, and digital services, contributing significantly to consumer upgrades, relief for small and micro enterprises, and rural revitalization [1] - The financial sector is continuously optimizing key aspects such as regional development balance, service scenario coverage, and risk prevention mechanisms [1] Group 2: Case Collection and Categories - The collection targets banks, insurance institutions, consumer finance companies, and payment institutions, with categories including: 1. Consumption scenario innovation (e.g., smart markets, credit card installment scenarios) [2] 2. Payment facilitation (e.g., app payment optimization, cross-border payment services) [2] 3. Consumer credit innovation (e.g., personal consumption loan products) [2] 4. Government-business collaboration (e.g., joint consumption coupon issuance) [2] 5. Green consumption promotion (e.g., green finance supporting low-carbon consumption) [2] 6. Other typical cases not covered above [2] Group 3: Evaluation Criteria - The evaluation criteria for the cases include: - Innovation: Whether the model breaks traditional norms and introduces new technologies or scenarios [3] - Comprehensive effectiveness: Whether it leads to perceivable consumption promotion effects [3] - Sustainability: The replicability of the model and its long-term social benefits [3] - Risk control: Compliance of financial services and the completeness of risk control mechanisms [3] Group 4: Activity Process - The case collection period is from now until May 30, 2025, with submissions sent to a specified email [3] - Cases must include background, innovation points, implementation results, and social impact analysis, with a word count between 1,000 and 3,000 [3] - The evaluation will consist of case collection and expert review, leading to the announcement of the "2025 Golden Ding Award for Excellent Cases of Financial Support for Consumption" [3]