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宏观脉冲,静待流动性修复:多晶硅周报-20260202
Chuang Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 06:19
Report Title - "Polysilicon Weekly Report: Macro Pulse, Awaiting Liquidity Restoration" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, macro disturbances have been greater than fundamental factors. The market volatility has increased significantly, and short-term liquidity has been constrained. On the fundamental side, upstream industrial silicon has advanced production cuts, but the production cuts in the polysilicon and silicon wafer segments are still falling short of expectations, leading to a continuous increase in inventory pressure. Although export rush has boosted external demand to some extent, domestic demand is in a seasonal off - peak and is expected to decline year - on - year, causing downstream enterprises to be extremely cautious in purchasing, which further amplifies the upstream inventory pressure. The profits of the entire industry are continuously declining, and the profit of the component segment has been further squeezed due to the rapid rise of silver prices. On the macro level, the election of Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve has led to differences in market expectations regarding whether the US will shrink its balance sheet, resulting in a significant short - term liquidity crisis event and increased market volatility [2] Summary by Directory 1. Key Data Overview - **Silicon powder price**: As of January 30, the 99 - silicon powder was quoted at 9,850 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.0% and 0.5% respectively. The 553 silicon powder was also quoted at 9,850 yuan/ton, with the same daily and weekly changes [6] - **Trichlorosilane price**: As of January 30, it was 3,425 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly changes [7] - **Polysilicon price**: The N - type granular silicon was quoted at 49 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 1.0% and a weekly decline of 3.0%. The N - type re - feed material was quoted at 51.3 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 2.3% and a weekly decline of 5.0%. The N - type silicon price index was 51.3 yuan/kg, with the same daily and weekly changes as the N - type re - feed material. The electronic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 28.15 US dollars/kg, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 0.5%. The overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 16.05 US dollars/kg, with no daily or weekly changes [7] - **Polysilicon production**: As of January 30, the weekly production was 20,200 tons, with a weekly decline of 1.5% [8] - **Polysilicon inventory**: As of January 30, the domestic inventory was 333,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9% [9] - **Silicon wafer price**: The N - type 182 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.23 yuan/piece, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly decline of 7.5%. The N - type 210 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.53 yuan/piece, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly decline of 6.1% [9] - **Silicon wafer production**: As of January 30, the weekly production was 11.75 GW, with a weekly increase of 8.2% [10] - **Silicon wafer inventory**: As of January 30, the inventory was 27.29 GW, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [11] - **Battery component price**: The single - crystal TOPcon:M10 was quoted at 0.44 yuan/watt, with a daily increase of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 6.0%. The single - crystal TOPcon:G12 was also quoted at 0.44 yuan/watt, with the same daily and weekly changes. Other battery component products also had different degrees of price changes [11][12] 2. Weekly Market Review 2.1 Spot Prices in the Industrial Chain - The report presents the price trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components through charts, sourced from SMM and Chuangyuan Research [15] 2.2 Prices of Other Upstream and Downstream Materials - The report shows the price trends of silicon powder, photovoltaic glass, silver paste, and photovoltaic frames through charts, sourced from SMM and Chuangyuan Research [17][19][20][21] 3. Key Data Tracking 3.1 Upstream and Downstream Data - The report shows the weekly production and inventory data of polysilicon, photovoltaic silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, and photovoltaic components through charts, sourced from SMM and Chuangyuan Research [24][27][29][31] 3.2 Export and Industry Profit Levels - The report shows the export data of components and batteries (converted to polysilicon consumption) and the profit levels of the polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery, and component industries through charts, sourced from SMM and Chuangyuan Research [33][35][37] 3.5 Weekly Key Data - The report comprehensively lists various data of the industry, including price, production, inventory, etc., and provides daily, weekly, and monthly changes [38]