伦敦白银市场正面临一场愈演愈烈的实物挤兑，一个关键利率指标的深度负值揭示了白银现货供应的极端紧张。 最新的动态来自荷兰交易专家Karel Mercx的分析。他指出，一个被用作衡量伦敦市场实物短缺程度的代理指标——1年期白银掉期利率减去美国 利率的利差——目前已暴跌至-7.18%。 这一"扭曲"的数据意味着，交易员为立即获得实物白银所愿意支付的溢价，已比一年后交割的白银高出近7%。正常情况下，由于存在仓储、保 险和融资成本，远期价格应高于现货价格。因此，理论上，该"一年期白银掉期利差"数值应为正值，以覆盖持有实物白银一年的相关成本。 而如今情况完全逆转，表明持有纸质凭证的投资者正在不计成本地寻求实物交割。这种行为模式被市场观察人士形容为一场对伦敦"现货"白银市 场的"挤兑"。这将激励投资者和用户继续抛售纸面合约，转而要求提取实物金属。 分析指出，只要这种短缺状况持续，白银价格的上涨趋势就难言结束。Karel Mercx强调："这种扭曲解释了为什么白银的涨势还未结束。" 他发布的图表显示，该指标不仅处于代表正常化的"红线"下方，而且差距还在不断扩大，表明伦敦的白银短缺正在加剧，而非趋于稳定。 只要该利差指标保持在 ...

Market Background - Recent surge in silver prices, breaking above $50/ounce and maintaining high volatility, with significant short-term gains observed in the $50–$54 range [3] - Supply and delivery anomalies noted, with tight liquidity in London and New York, indicating severe backwardation and extremely high leasing rates, which have reportedly surged to historic levels of several tens of percentage points [3] - Physical squeeze observed, with banks and traders competing to transport physical silver bars, contributing to rapid price increases [3] - Macro drivers include a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts or monetary easing, and inflationary pressures boosting demand for precious metals [3] Pre-Entry Requirements - Verify liquidity and physical conditions by checking LBMA/COMEX inventories, recent leasing rates, and media reports on physical shortages or premiums [4] - Confirm investment goals and time frames, distinguishing between short-term trading (days to weeks) and medium-term holding (months) [4] - Select a compliant platform that offers simulation accounts and minimum lot sizes, such as WanZhou JinYe, and conduct practice trades [4] - Establish digital risk management rules, detailing maximum dollar risk per trade, total position limits, and event window rules [5] - Conduct small-scale real trading tests to assess platform execution capabilities and cost structures [5] Operational Steps - Open an account on a compliant platform like WanZhou JinYe, complete KYC, and activate a simulation account [6] - Download and familiarize with trading terminals, such as MT5, and practice executing various order types in the simulation account [7] - For small-scale real trading, deposit a minimal amount (e.g., $100-$200) and execute a few trades to evaluate spreads, slippage, and transaction speeds [8] - Define position building rules, including maximum exposure and phased entry strategies, with specific dollar risk parameters for each trade [9] - Implement dynamic position management, adjusting stop-loss orders as price targets are reached, and establish criteria for profit-taking and position reduction [10][11] Platform Selection - WanZhou JinYe is highlighted for its support of simulation accounts and micro lot sizes, allowing for strategy testing before real trading [12] - The platform offers an easy online account opening process and guidance for deposits and withdrawals, making it suitable for beginners [13] - Automated risk management features, such as limit orders and trailing stops, help execute predefined risk rules, minimizing emotional interference [14] Common Misconceptions - Avoid using all available funds to chase high prices and refrain from making large deposits before verifying platform spreads and slippage [15] - Caution against holding excessive positions before major events, as liquidity may rapidly contract, leading to amplified spreads and slippage [15] - Emphasize the importance of discipline in trading, with a focus on risk assessment, simulation practice, and structured entry and exit strategies [15]