黄金：如何定价，走向何方？20250912 摘要 2024 年，MEX 黄金和伦敦现货黄金年内累计涨幅分别达到 29.7%和 31.5%，9 月初接近 40%，主要受美联储降息预期、特朗普动摇美联储 独立性以及欧美债务可持续性担忧推动。 黄金价格受商品、货币、金融三重属性影响，与通胀正相关，与美元和 美债实际利率负相关。但自 2022 年以来，实际利率对金价的解释力减 弱，可能因实际利率误判或央行购金行为所致。 2022 年至 2024 年间，全球央行平均每年购金量达 1,060 吨，占全球 需求 23%，结构性需求推升金价，使得传统的实际利率-黄金定价框架 失效，应回归供需基础逻辑分析。 历史数据显示，金价显著涨势通常源于战争或危机，持续 10-12 年。当 前始于 2018-2019 年的涨势已持续六七年，若宏观环境继续支持避险 情绪及央行购金，金价或将保持强势。 全球央行购金原因包括美元信任度下降（冻结俄罗斯资产）、美国债务 问题（财政赤字和债务规模上升）、经济内生动能弱化以及新兴经济体 去发达经济体货币化趋势。 Q&A 如何理解 2025 年黄金价格的历史新高？ 2025 年初以来，金价快速攀升并屡创 ...

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold exhibits three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial asset, with prices positively correlated to inflation and negatively correlated to the US dollar and real interest rates[3] - Since 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened due to central banks increasing gold reserves, reflecting declining trust in the US dollar[3] - The supply of gold is relatively stable due to resource scarcity and long exploration and extraction cycles, while demand has shifted from investment to strategic allocation, changing the pricing anchor from "real interest rates" to "central bank purchases"[7] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly after the freezing of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict[8] - As of 2024, the US federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 124.3%, indicating a growing risk to the dollar's credibility and prompting countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold[8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, suggesting a strong and growing demand for gold[10] Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks and political polarization are expected to continue, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increasing central bank demand for gold[9] - The military expenditure of major countries is at historical lows as a percentage of GDP, providing a safety net against potential declines in gold prices[9] - The average annual net gold purchases by central banks from 2022 to 2024 reached 1,059 tons, accounting for 23% of global gold demand, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics[34]