2026年春节金价上演惊魂过山车：从5600美元历史巅峰暴跌至4400美元深渊，单日跌幅创下43年纪录，全球央行 年购金863吨形成托底，市场在美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险与美元信用危机多重博弈中剧烈震荡 你有没有见过这样的场面？ 一种被称为"终极避险资产"的东西，在短短30个小时里，价格像坐上了没有安全带的 过山车，从让人尖叫的历史最高点，一头栽进深谷。 这不是电影，这是2026年马年春节前后，真实发生在全球黄 金市场上的剧情。 时间回到2026年1月29日。 那天，国际现货黄金的价格，冲到了每盎司5598美元。 这是一个前所未有的数字，黄 金第一次站上5000美元大关后，还在继续狂飙。 相比2025年初，价格已经涨了超过70%。 如果你在那时走进北京 或深圳的任何一家金店，会发现柜台前挤满了人，队伍能排出去几十米。 周大福、老凤祥这些品牌的足金饰品， 每克标价已经冲到了1620元到1708元。 一条30克的金项链，在2025年初买可能不到4万块，这时候你要掏超过8万 元。 但狂欢的顶峰，往往紧接着就是坠落。 仅仅两天后，1月31日，市场迎来了一个"黑色星期五"。 黄金价格毫无征 兆地开始跳水。 在28分钟 ...

别看特朗普在国际舞台上喊得震天响，一会儿要派三角洲部队去抓马杜罗，一会儿逼着泽连斯基点头停火，转头又把美军调到中东对着伊朗亮肌肉，好像全 世界都得听他号令。 可真回到美国国内，这套"强人逻辑"早就玩不转了。 外头看着凶，里头却早就千疮百孔——典型的外强中干。 二月二十号那天，美东时间刚过中午，美国最高法院一纸终审判决下来，直接把特朗普第二次上台后最倚重的关税大棒给打折了。 问题出在他援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对全球加征所谓"芬太尼关税"和"对等关税"。 法院说，这不行，你越权了。 IEEPA本来是用来应对真正国家安全危机的，不是让你拿来当贸易武器随便挥舞的。 这话听着客气，实则等于当众扇了特朗普一记耳光。 白宫反应倒是快，当天就发行政令，把所有基于IEEPA加的税全撤了。 但明眼人都知道，这哪是认错？分明是缓兵之计。 果不其然，没过几小时，美国政府立马换了个法律依据——搬出《1974年贸易法》第122条。 这条款确实给了总统临时加税的权力，最长150天，税率最高15%。 一开始说先收10%，结果第二天特朗普就在推特上改口："15%！顶格来！"——你看，嘴上说撤，手里刀子反而磨得更亮。 可问题不在 ...

编辑：[加油] 黄金和白银价格突然出现断崖式下跌，沪银主力合约直接封死跌停，六大国有银行紧急上调了黄金投资 的门槛。 这场在28分钟内，黄金价格狂泻380美元的踩踏事故，彻底打破了市场对黄金持续上涨的疯狂幻想。算 法收割、政策反转和债务危机交织在一起，让很多投资者陷入困境。 随后，金价在不到半小时内暴跌380美元，白银价格也跟着大幅下跌。三天后，伦敦金累计下跌超过900 美元，跌到了4700美元左右；白银跌幅更严重，三天内下跌超过30%。 2月2日国内市场开盘后，沪银期货主力合约直接跌停，沪金期货跌幅超过10%，A股多只黄金相关股票 也触及跌停。 面对黄金投资里的贪婪与恐惧，我们需要认清金价剧烈波动背后的真实原因，守住普通人的资产底线。 2026年1月29日北京时间凌晨，伦敦金价涨到了5598美元/盎司，创下了历史新高。但没人想到，这个峰 值只维持了28分钟。 这个决定本身不算意外，但美联储主席鲍威尔随后的一句话，彻底改变了市场预期。他说"通胀回落速 度不及预期，不急于继续降息"，就是这句话，让市场原本期待的3月份降息彻底落空。 黄金本身是不产生利息的资产，不像债券那样能拿利息，也不像股票那样能分红。当市场利 ...

全球金融风向，似乎又一次变了。 过去，人们常把美国国债当作最安全的投资，说是"雷打不动"，可如今，这块"金字招牌"正在褪色。 中国再次大幅减持美债，让持仓降到17年来最低点，甚至被美国媒体形容为"腰斩"；与此同时，中国的黄金储备一个月比一个月多，稳稳攀上新高。 反观美国，债务飙升、党派内斗、贸易关税争议不断，特朗普在内部和外部同时被"围攻"。 过去十几年，中国是美国最大的债权国之一。 那时候，美国动不动"印钞救市"，我们买它的国债，既为了稳汇率，也是为了管理外汇储备。 但从2013年到达峰值后开始，中国的操作就越来越耐人寻味：不急不躁，悄悄地减持。 到今年，美债持仓降到了大约6800多亿美元，对比当年最高1.3万亿美元，几乎整整砍掉了一半。 这不是一次两次的小动作，而是一场持续几年、节奏稳、方向明的战略调整。 很多人会问，为什么要减？主要有两个原因。 首先就是美国的债越发不安全，利率起起落落、赤字越来越大。 过去人们觉得美国不会赖账，但俄乌冲突之后，大家发现，美元是可以"被武器化"的。 俄罗斯的外汇储备不是照样被美国冻结了吗？这一下子让全球都学聪明了。 然后就是中国外储结构要优化，不能老把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。 ...

2026年2月10号，美国财政部长贝森特急急忙忙出来喊话，说中美关系挺好，就算是竞争对手，也绝对 不能脱钩断链。 说真的，贝森特这波喊话，明眼人一看就知道是慌了。2月10号，他在巴西的一场CEO论坛上视讯演 讲，嘴上说着中美关系"非常稳妥"，转头就强调"不寻求脱钩"，还加了句"要去风险"。这话听着矛盾， 其实藏着满满的求生欲。 就在三天前，中国刚公布数据：1月持有的美债跌到6826亿美元，创2008年以来最低；黄金却连续15个 月增持。这一减一增，为啥把贝森特急成这样？咱们到底在算什么账？ 美财长连夜喊话 贝森特哪是在乎中美关系稳不稳，分明是在乎咱们手里的美债卖不卖。要知道，中国以前可是美国最大 的海外债主，手里的美债最多的时候，能顶得上不少国家一年的GDP。现在倒好，咱们一路减持，直接 跌到6826亿美元，相当于回到17年前——2008年金融危机那会儿的水平，等于把手里一半的美债都给卖 了。 6826亿美债，咱真的离场了？ 可能有人没概念，咱们减持的幅度到底有多大？2013年的时候，咱手里的美债冲到过1.32万亿的峰值， 稳坐美国海外债主的头把交椅；从2021年开始，咱减持的速度就明显加快，2025年有一个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

编辑：[太阳] 过去72小时，金价剧烈波动——先急速飙升，又突然暴跌。这并非普通市场震荡，而是投资者对美元信 心动摇的信号。面对压力，美国试图转移责任，但全球对美元的信任裂痕已难以忽视。接下来，是修复 预期，还是危机蔓延？ 黄金过山车 要说2026年1月这场金融风暴，没点心理准备的人还真扛不住。咱们不管是在哪，只要盯着全球金融市 场，眼里全是那个让人窒息的屏幕数字。 这场黄金"电锯式"行情，其实就是新年金融市场给大家的当头一棒。所有人都在问：到底怎么了？而当 大家还在废墟里数着损失的时候，美国财长贝森特在电视上亮相了，脸上带着紧张又强装镇定的表情。 谁才是"替罪羊"？ 这三天黄金的走势可以说是史无前例——简直像在坐电梯，刚还在5000美元，下一秒就冲到5600美元， 让多头和空头全都傻眼。 谁见过金价能这样涨？老手都开始手心出汗，交易室一片死寂，所有人都盯着那根K线直冒冷汗，生怕 一眨眼就错过了什么天大的事。 可还没等大家反应过来，雪崩就来了。没半天工夫，金价就像被谁一脚踢下山坡，20%的跌幅像刀一样 割在每个人心头。什么叫"断头铡"？这就是现实版——数字不是慢慢掉，是直接塌了下来。 屏幕上一片红，账户上直接 ...

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to wait for stabilization. Gold's long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, while short - term market adjustments are ongoing. Silver has short - term adjustment pressure despite long - term positive factors [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. Although it has short - term fluctuations, long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing pressure on rebounds. Short - term observation is advised, and long - term, buying on dips is recommended [1][10]. - Lead is under pressure due to losses in domestic lead smelting and weak terminal demand [1]. - Tin, aluminum, and nickel are all facing pressure on rebounds in the short term due to various factors such as supply and demand imbalances [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish, but risks should be carefully considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver spot and futures markets showed signs of stabilization after a short - term rebound, but the sustainability needs further observation. The US employment market has challenges, with the ADP employment data in January significantly falling short of expectations [2]. - **Reasons for the Plunge**: The sharp drop in precious metals is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives in the short term, combined with excessive price increases leading to high volatility and forced liquidation [3]. - **Long - term Support**: The three pillars supporting the gold price - central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty - remain stable. The long - term risk is still upward, but the short - term market needs time to adjust [3]. - **Future Influencing Variables**: The Fed's policy path, Trump's policy uncertainty, and AI technological progress will determine the future trend of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: In China, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1080 and silver around 21000. Continue to focus on reducing volatility [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of copper showed high - level oscillations. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all declined to some extent, while the spot price of electrolytic copper increased [4]. - **Industry Logic**: The global copper mine shortage continues, with strikes in Chilean copper mines intensifying the shortage. The processing fee of copper concentrate has reached a new low. The supply of refined copper is expected to slow down, while the demand in the power, new energy vehicle, and big data center sectors is growing [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits in a timely manner, and maintain long - term positions. In the short term, Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend under pressure [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc production increased in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak and inventory is accumulating. Although traditional demand is weak, emerging fields may offset some of the demand gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks. In the long term, consider buying on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [24200, 25200], and LME zinc on the range of [3250, 3350] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The overseas bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina industry has inventory pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel price faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel showed a slight rebound [15]. - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. The domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season with increasing inventory [16]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [17]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the increase narrowing at the end [19]. - **Industry Logic**: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and start - up rate are both declining, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand side may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for three weeks. However, regulatory risks are high [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to increased regulatory risks and trampling risks, hold positions cautiously within the range of [14500 - 156000] [21].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Gold: ★☆☆, representing a bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to rebound. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and the reshaping of the global order has not reversed, but in the short - term, it is mainly about capital games. Precious metals have entered a high - level consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait and see for now until volatility decreases. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical situations and a series of economic data including non - farm payrolls this week. Tonight, focus on US ADP employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data [1] 3. Summary Based on Related News - Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown [2] - Fed's Barkin: Rate cuts support the job market, and the task of combating inflation still has the last step to go; Governor Mille: Interest rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. No over - interpretation of metal market price fluctuations. In the long run, hopes for a smaller Fed balance - sheet size [2] - US officials said the US military shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Lincoln. The White House: Despite Iran's request to adjust the location and form of the talks, the US - Iran talks are still planned to be held this week, and the US still retains military options. It is reported that Iranian armed speedboats tried to stop a US - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz but failed. Iranian diplomatic sources: Iran has entered the highest level of defensive alert and is ready for any situation [2]