Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced extreme volatility during the 2026 Spring Festival, with prices plummeting from a historic high of $5,600 to a low of $4,400, marking the largest single-day drop in 43 years. This fluctuation was influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 29, 2026, gold prices reached an unprecedented $5,598 per ounce, representing a more than 70% increase compared to early 2025 [3]. - Just two days later, on January 31, gold prices fell sharply, dropping from $5,400 to $4,700 in just 28 minutes, with a closing drop of 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline since 1983 [3][4]. - By February 2, gold had further declined to $4,402, resulting in a total drop of nearly $1,200 from the peak [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair created market panic, as he is perceived to have a hawkish stance, contrary to expectations of a dovish candidate who would support rate cuts [4]. - Prior to the drop, gold prices had surged 21% in two weeks, indicating a strong correction pressure due to the rapid increase [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and significant purchases by central banks, which totaled 863 tons in 2025, were key drivers of the initial price surge [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts are divided on future gold prices, with bullish forecasts suggesting prices could reach $6,200 to $6,300 by mid to late 2026, driven by central bank purchases and ongoing concerns about the US dollar [11]. - Conversely, cautious predictions estimate prices will stabilize between $4,450 and $4,550, indicating that current prices may be overextended [11]. - Consumer behavior showed a split response, with a 15% increase in demand for gold jewelry during the 2026 Spring Festival, while investment behaviors varied, with some opting to buy gold bars and others selling to lock in profits [12][14]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The gold pricing logic appears to be shifting, as traditional correlations with US Treasury yields have weakened, suggesting that geopolitical risks and central bank purchases are now more influential [9]. - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war, with significant price fluctuations indicating a stalemate between bullish and bearish sentiments [14]. - The ongoing dynamics reflect broader economic anxieties and a gradual shift away from reliance on a single currency, as central banks increase their gold holdings [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal challenges faced by the Trump administration, highlighting the disconnect between its aggressive foreign policy and the deteriorating domestic situation, particularly in terms of legal and financial stability. Group 1: Legal and Policy Challenges - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for imposing tariffs, stating it exceeded his authority [1][2]. - Following the ruling, the White House quickly issued an executive order to withdraw tariffs based on IEEPA, but this was seen as a temporary measure rather than an admission of fault [3][4]. - The administration then shifted to using the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for temporary tariffs, indicating a continued reliance on executive power to impose taxes [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The Supreme Court's decision could lead to the refund of approximately $170 billion in tariffs, which is significant given that the annual tariff revenue before Trump's presidency was around $90 billion [14][15]. - The U.S. national debt has surged to $38 trillion, the highest among all countries, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [17][18]. - Recent data showed a decline in foreign ownership of U.S. debt, indicating a loss of trust among international investors [20][21]. Group 3: Economic and Political Dynamics - The article emphasizes the growing political division within the U.S., with the potential for continued legislative paralysis as the midterm elections approach [35][36]. - The ongoing internal conflicts, including the standoff between Trump and the Federal Reserve, reflect a broader systemic dysfunction in U.S. governance [30][32]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is experiencing a "high friction operating state," where various branches of government are unable to effectively collaborate, leading to economic stagnation [46]. Group 4: Global Perception and Soft Power - Traditional allies like Japan and South Korea are adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [40]. - The article argues that the U.S. is losing its soft power as its ability to influence global markets diminishes, with other nations becoming more cautious in their dealings with the U.S. [47]. - The perception of U.S. strength is eroding, as evidenced by the lack of significant reactions from global markets to U.S. tariff policies [47].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden and drastic drop in gold and silver prices has shattered market expectations for continued price increases, driven by a combination of policy shifts, debt crises, and investor panic [1][3][45]. Market Reaction - Gold prices plummeted by $380 within 28 minutes, marking a significant market event that led to a cumulative drop of over $900 in three days, with silver experiencing a decline of more than 30% [7][9][20]. - Major state-owned banks in China raised investment thresholds for gold, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted margin requirements for silver contracts in response to the market turmoil [11][45]. Policy Impact - The catalyst for the price drop was the Federal Reserve's announcement on January 29 to maintain interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, coupled with Chairman Powell's statement indicating no urgency to lower rates further [13][15]. - This shift in policy expectations led to a reversal of the previous bullish sentiment surrounding gold, which had seen a price increase of over 28% in the preceding year [18][20]. Investor Behavior - The rapid decline was exacerbated by profit-taking among investors who had seen gains of 20% to 30%, triggering a chain reaction of automated sell-offs once key price levels were breached [26][27]. - The phenomenon of "liquidation" led to a vicious cycle of selling, where rational individual actions collectively resulted in irrational market behavior, culminating in a panic sell-off [27][45]. Broader Economic Context - The underlying issues include concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, which has reached $38 trillion, and the increasing skepticism regarding the long-term credibility of the dollar [39]. - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold as a hedge against the risks associated with the dollar, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months [35][39]. Investment Strategy - For ordinary investors, the focus should be on using idle funds for gold investment as a risk hedge rather than seeking high returns, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational approach during market volatility [41][43][46].

Core Viewpoint - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe investment is diminishing, with significant reductions in holdings by China and other countries, indicating a shift in global financial dynamics [1][3][15]. Group 1: China's Actions - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a 17-year low, described as "halved" by U.S. media, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves [3][7]. - From a peak of approximately $1.3 trillion, China's U.S. Treasury holdings have decreased to around $680 billion, marking a strategic adjustment over several years [5][7]. - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is driven by concerns over the safety of U.S. debt, characterized by rising interest rates and increasing deficits [7][9]. Group 2: Global Trends - Other countries, including India and Poland, are also increasing their gold reserves while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings, signaling a broader loss of confidence in U.S. debt [15]. - The trend of diversifying reserves away from U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a response to the weaponization of the dollar, particularly highlighted by the freezing of Russian foreign reserves [9][19]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Asset - China has consistently increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, surpassing 74 million ounces, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold as a secure asset [17][19]. - Gold is viewed as a unique asset that does not rely on external guarantees, making it a preferred choice amid credit crises and geopolitical tensions [19][21]. - The increasing importance of gold is underscored by its status as a universally accepted "hard currency," providing a hedge against uncertainties in the international financial system [21][26]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, with rising concerns about inflation and economic stability as the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between raising interest rates and controlling inflation [32][34]. - Political divisions within the U.S. Congress are impacting economic policies, with internal opposition to tariff plans that could harm the economy and international relations [30][34]. - The decline in the dollar's value, with a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index over the past year, reflects a broader loss of confidence in the U.S. financial system [32][34]. Group 5: Future Financial Landscape - The ongoing dynamics between the dollar and gold, as well as U.S. debt and reserves, represent a significant shift in the global financial landscape, potentially leading to a more multipolar reserve system [36]. - China's proactive policies and strategic adjustments position it as a leader in this evolving financial environment, emphasizing the need for countries to build diverse and secure reserve systems [26][36].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's urgent remarks about U.S.-China relations reflect concerns over China's significant reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings, which have dropped to their lowest level since 2008, while simultaneously increasing gold reserves for 15 consecutive months [1][3][9]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Debt Holdings - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the importance of not decoupling from China, indicating a sense of urgency regarding China's selling of U.S. debt [3][7]. - China's U.S. Treasury holdings have decreased to $682.6 billion, a significant drop from a peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013, marking a strategic shift in asset management [5][20]. - The reduction in U.S. debt holdings has led to China losing its status as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, a position now held by Japan [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Crisis - The total U.S. national debt has reached $38 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.4 trillion in 2025, highlighting a growing fiscal challenge for the U.S. government [7][24]. - The U.S. government's reliance on issuing more debt to cover expenses has raised concerns about the sustainability of its fiscal policies [20][24]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Shift - China has strategically shifted from holding U.S. debt to increasing gold reserves, which now total approximately 2,308 tons, as a safer asset [11][18]. - The strategy includes lending U.S. dollars to developing countries, allowing them to repay U.S. debts while facilitating trade in local currencies, thereby reducing reliance on the dollar [13][14][28]. - This approach not only mitigates risk but also promotes the international use of the Chinese yuan, enhancing its global standing [14][28]. Group 4: Global Currency Dynamics - A broader trend is emerging where multiple countries are reducing their U.S. debt holdings, with nations like India and Saudi Arabia also selling off U.S. Treasuries [26][28]. - The global shift away from the dollar is evident, as countries seek alternative currencies and assets, such as gold and local currencies, for trade [24][28]. - The U.S. may face challenges in maintaining its dominance in global finance as countries increasingly look for alternatives to the dollar [28][29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, dollar credit crises, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized as a "roller coaster" market, influenced by the rapid price increases and subsequent corrections expected to last for 2-3 months [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, driven by motives such as reserve diversification, hedging against geopolitical risks, and enhancing monetary confidence management [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold prices is anticipated from slow variables like Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases, alongside short-term catalysts from geopolitical conflicts and currency credit concerns [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented volatility in gold prices, which reflects a significant loss of confidence in the US dollar and raises questions about the future stability of the financial system [1][9][25] - Gold prices surged from $5000 to $5600 within a short period, followed by a dramatic drop of 20%, indicating extreme market reactions and investor panic [3][5][7] - The US Treasury Secretary, Bessent, attributed the volatility to "speculative trading" and foreign markets, particularly China, while avoiding mention of US debt issues or the credibility of the dollar [11][12][15] Group 2 - The article highlights a strategic shift in global central banks, particularly China's, which has been accumulating gold for 15 consecutive months, indicating a move away from reliance on the dollar [20][23] - The current financial turmoil is seen as a failure of trust in the dollar system, with many countries preparing for a potential shift in the global monetary order by stockpiling gold [25][29] - The emergence of alternative currencies and decentralized payment systems suggests a growing complexity in the financial landscape, where trust in a single currency is diminishing [27][31]

1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for stabilization [1] - Silver: Not recommended to participate [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Hold an empty position and wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - For precious metals, the recent sharp adjustment is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives, along with forced liquidations. However, the long - term support factors for gold remain stable [1][3]. - Copper is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, but long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][7]. - Zinc is facing weak demand and inventory accumulation in the short term, while long - term supply challenges may bring opportunities [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation and seasonal demand weakness [1][14]. - Nickel prices are relatively weak due to high inventory and weak consumption in the off - season [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile, and it is advisable to hold an empty position due to regulatory and market risks [1][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets of gold and silver are in short - term adjustment. Gold prices on SHFE dropped by 3.15% and COMEX by 3.78%. Silver prices on SHFE dropped by 13.85% and COMEX by 19.84%. The gold - silver ratio has increased significantly [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The sharp drop in precious metals is a result of over - speculation in the short - term and forced liquidations. The long - term support factors for gold, such as central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty, remain intact. However, short - term market volatility needs to be digested [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold to stabilize, and avoid participating in silver in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of domestic gold around 1060 and silver around 19000, and continue to monitor the decline in volatility [1][4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai copper main contract dropped by 1.34%, LME copper by 1.42%, and COMEX copper by 3.48%. Trading volume increased by 18%, while open interest decreased by 5%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and copper concentrate processing fees have reached a new low. Domestic smelters plan to cut production, and refined copper supply is slowing. Although in the demand off - season, long - term demand from power, new energy, and other sectors is expected to support copper prices [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in copper cautiously in the short term, and keep a long - term perspective. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [99000, 103000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The price of Shanghai zinc main contract dropped by 0.40%, and LME zinc by 0.21%. Trading volume decreased by 5.68%, and open interest decreased by 10.97%. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with social inventories increasing [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. However, emerging industries may offset some of the decline in traditional demand [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce positions in the short term, control risks, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long term, consider buying on dips. The range for Shanghai zinc is [24000, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3250, 3300] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of LME aluminum dropped by 1.21%, Shanghai aluminum main contract by 2.38%, and alumina main contract by 1.20%. Open interest in both aluminum and alumina decreased. Inventories increased, with SHFE aluminum inventory increasing by 10.01% and SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increasing by 2.33% [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but demand is in the off - season. Alumina prices are under pressure due to overseas bauxite prices and inventory issues [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The price of LME nickel dropped by 0.84%, Shanghai nickel main contract by 2.29%, and stainless steel main contract by 0.11%. Open interest in nickel increased slightly, while that in stainless steel decreased. Inventories showed a mixed trend, with SMM pure nickel social inventory increasing by 6.56% [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production in 2026, but the actual supply is uncertain. Domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the stainless steel market is in the off - season with weak demand and increasing inventory [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see, and pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is [120000 - 145000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract LC2605 dropped by 9.81%, and trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of lithium carbonate and related products also declined, while the basis increased significantly [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant production is declining, and supply is expected to be tight. Demand may pick up due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustments, but regulatory risks are high [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold an empty position, with the range of [12500 - 140000] yuan/ton [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to wait for stabilization. Gold's long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, while short - term market adjustments are ongoing. Silver has short - term adjustment pressure despite long - term positive factors [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. Although it has short - term fluctuations, long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing pressure on rebounds. Short - term observation is advised, and long - term, buying on dips is recommended [1][10]. - Lead is under pressure due to losses in domestic lead smelting and weak terminal demand [1]. - Tin, aluminum, and nickel are all facing pressure on rebounds in the short term due to various factors such as supply and demand imbalances [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish, but risks should be carefully considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver spot and futures markets showed signs of stabilization after a short - term rebound, but the sustainability needs further observation. The US employment market has challenges, with the ADP employment data in January significantly falling short of expectations [2]. - **Reasons for the Plunge**: The sharp drop in precious metals is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives in the short term, combined with excessive price increases leading to high volatility and forced liquidation [3]. - **Long - term Support**: The three pillars supporting the gold price - central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty - remain stable. The long - term risk is still upward, but the short - term market needs time to adjust [3]. - **Future Influencing Variables**: The Fed's policy path, Trump's policy uncertainty, and AI technological progress will determine the future trend of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: In China, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1080 and silver around 21000. Continue to focus on reducing volatility [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of copper showed high - level oscillations. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all declined to some extent, while the spot price of electrolytic copper increased [4]. - **Industry Logic**: The global copper mine shortage continues, with strikes in Chilean copper mines intensifying the shortage. The processing fee of copper concentrate has reached a new low. The supply of refined copper is expected to slow down, while the demand in the power, new energy vehicle, and big data center sectors is growing [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits in a timely manner, and maintain long - term positions. In the short term, Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend under pressure [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc production increased in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak and inventory is accumulating. Although traditional demand is weak, emerging fields may offset some of the demand gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks. In the long term, consider buying on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [24200, 25200], and LME zinc on the range of [3250, 3350] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The overseas bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina industry has inventory pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel price faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel showed a slight rebound [15]. - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. The domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season with increasing inventory [16]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [17]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the increase narrowing at the end [19]. - **Industry Logic**: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and start - up rate are both declining, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand side may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for three weeks. However, regulatory risks are high [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to increased regulatory risks and trampling risks, hold positions cautiously within the range of [14500 - 156000] [21].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Gold: ★☆☆, representing a bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to rebound. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and the reshaping of the global order has not reversed, but in the short - term, it is mainly about capital games. Precious metals have entered a high - level consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait and see for now until volatility decreases. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical situations and a series of economic data including non - farm payrolls this week. Tonight, focus on US ADP employment and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data [1] 3. Summary Based on Related News - Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown [2] - Fed's Barkin: Rate cuts support the job market, and the task of combating inflation still has the last step to go; Governor Mille: Interest rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year. No over - interpretation of metal market price fluctuations. In the long run, hopes for a smaller Fed balance - sheet size [2] - US officials said the US military shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Lincoln. The White House: Despite Iran's request to adjust the location and form of the talks, the US - Iran talks are still planned to be held this week, and the US still retains military options. It is reported that Iranian armed speedboats tried to stop a US - flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz but failed. Iranian diplomatic sources: Iran has entered the highest level of defensive alert and is ready for any situation [2]