中国发展改革报社记者 | 季晓莉 政府"停摆"消耗了公众对政府和政客的信任。据美国一项调查，1958年，73%的美国人表示他们总是或 大多数时候信任联邦政府，如今这一数字只有22%。美国舆论认为，两党以"更大的敌意和恶意"把"党 争推到了新高度"，凸显美国愈演愈烈的政治极化，同时给美国民众带来了更大伤害。 当地时间9月30日晚，由共和党起草的暂时维持政府运转的临时拨款法案在美国国会参议院未能获得通 过所需的60票，联邦政府从美国东部时间10月1日零时起开始"停摆"，至本文截稿日期为止尚未恢复正 常运转。这是美国联邦政府近7年来的首次"停摆"。 美国媒体说，这场"停摆"将成为一场旷日持久、你死我活的两党之争，与之前相比将产生更大的经济和 政治影响。有市场平台预测，眼下这场"停摆"持续超过10天的概率为69%。"停摆"不仅给美国经济带来 负面影响，也给全球市场带来连锁反应，波及全球贸易、金融稳定，动摇市场对美国经济治理能力的信 心。 两党纷争"剧情"不同根源不变 美国联邦政府运转资金来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10月1日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款 法案。但由于近年来两党争斗激烈，往往无法及时达成一致，国会 ...

2025年9月26日，在白宫的一场记者会上，一场针对科技巨头的政治清算正在发酵，特朗普看似针对联邦调查局前局长科米的表态，实则拉 开了美国政坛对科技巨头微软"秋后算账" 的序幕。 莉萨·莫纳科的职业生涯与特朗普的政治命运交织已久。1968年出生于波士顿精英家庭的她，父亲是哈佛医学院资深教授，母亲在公共政策 领域颇具影响力。 这种家庭背景使她自幼便跻身美国东北部学术与政治圈层。奥巴马执政时期，她历任助理司法部长、总统首席反恐顾问，直接参与《外国 情报监视法》的执行。 政治清算的延续：从司法系统到科技巨头 拜登任内，莫纳科重返司法部担任副部长，主导了对特朗普"通俄门""国会山骚乱"等案件的调查，还推动起诉苹果公司垄断、调查丹麦银 行洗钱案，这些行动均被特朗普视为"政治迫害"。 2025年2月，特朗普重返白宫后立即撤销了莫纳科的安全许可，禁止其接触机密信息和进入联邦设施。此次施压微软解雇莫纳科，不过是这 一政治清算的延续。特朗普在记者会上声称，莫纳科在微软担任国际商务领导人期间，可能利用其接触的政府合同信息危害国家安全。 但分析人士指出，这一指控缺乏实质性证据，更多是特朗普对政敌的个人报复。 特朗普的政治清算不仅针 ...

随着民主党和共和党谈判破裂，美国政府被迫"关门"。 据新华社报道，当地时间10月1日0时，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员被迫无薪 休假，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到影响。此前，美国两党因医保福利方面分歧， 未能就新的临时拨款法案达成一致。 此次美国政府停摆基本在预期中。央视新闻报道称，当地时间9月30日晚，白宫管理和预算办公室 （OMB）主任沃特发布备忘录，指示各政府机构开始执行其"有序停摆"的预案。不受影响的部门包括 军方、联邦调查局和国土安全部等执法部门、联邦航空管理局和邮政局等。 警惕"财政悬崖" 美国联邦政府因两党政治博弈而关门在历史上并不少见。20世纪70年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民 主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有二十多次。 上一次也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在2018年年底至2019年年初，特朗普第一任期内，民主党反对特朗普 提出的美墨边境墙项目拨款，两党在移民问题上争斗不休，导致政府关门五周。当时大约四分之一的联 邦政府机构"关门"持续五周，殃及80多万名政府雇员，经济损失估计超过100亿美元。 政治极化现象愈演愈烈 随着政治极化加剧， 美国政府" ...

如果说将来真的有一天，在二十一世纪中叶，和二十世纪的剧本一样，人类可以回到上一个世纪90年代 的全球化水平。到时候有机会组织一个活动庆祝的话，我就会把王菲《Eyes On Me》这首歌当做主题 曲。一个来自北京的姑娘，在香港出道，唱着一首日本人写的英文歌曲。然后感动了全世界无数游戏玩 家。 但我们现在的世界不是如此，之前说过，在标志性的政治人物被暗杀之后，对事情的处理有且只有两种 做法，而它们之间的分歧巨大。 要么是大家意识到，之前的分歧太大，大家用恶毒的语句攻击彼此，最后走上肉体毁灭的道路，是时候 停下来。然后双方共同谴责这种行为 这是在短期的可能性。 而在长期，没有例外，政治极化几乎从来不会因为暗杀而结束，这是肉体消灭没有意义的地方，拉宾遇 刺之后，和平并没有持续，帕尔梅遇刺之后，瑞典今天还是面对开放移民和福利社会的矛盾。 今天的情况我觉得不会有两样，在Charlie Kirk的纪念仪式上，他的遗孀原谅了杀害他的人，无论这是 不是作秀，我都尊重这种宽容，我从来不相信超过15个人的集会上，存在有任何绝对真实的事情。凡事 论迹不论心。而Trump用戏谑的语气说""I hate my opponent and ...

Group 1 - The assassination of Charlie Kirk, a key political ally of Trump, highlights the severe political turmoil in the U.S. [1][5] - Kirk was a significant figure in mobilizing young voters and minority support for Trump, contributing to his electoral success [3][5] - The incident raises concerns about the increasing political violence in the U.S., with parallels drawn to previous assassination attempts against Trump [5][8] Group 2 - Trump's ongoing conflicts with the Federal Reserve, particularly with Chairman Jerome Powell, reflect his attempts to exert influence over monetary policy [7] - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump has sparked market volatility and criticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [7] - The political environment surrounding Trump is becoming increasingly complex, with multiple legal challenges and controversies affecting his administration [8]

Core Points - The assassination of Charlie Kirk marks a significant escalation in political violence in the United States, reflecting a deepening political polarization and the normalization of hate politics [3][20][26] - Kirk's death has sparked a divided response on social media, with conservative figures mourning him while left-leaning individuals mock his demise, indicating a troubling trend of dehumanization in political discourse [12][14][15] Group 1: Incident Overview - Charlie Kirk was shot and killed during a public speaking event in Utah, attended by approximately 3,000 people [1][2] - The shooting is being investigated by the FBI, with initial assessments suggesting it was a single perpetrator act, and the motive remains unclear [2][3] - Utah's governor labeled the incident a "political assassination," and former President Trump ordered flags to be flown at half-staff in Kirk's honor [2][8] Group 2: Charlie Kirk's Background - Kirk, born in 1993, became politically active after the 2008 financial crisis and co-founded Turning Point USA at the age of 18 to promote conservative views among youth [4][5] - He transformed Turning Point USA into a well-funded media organization, gaining millions of followers through social media and his radio show [5][6] - Kirk's confrontational style and controversial statements have made him a polarizing figure, appealing to many young conservatives while inciting significant opposition [5][6][21] Group 3: Political Climate and Reactions - The political landscape has become increasingly hostile, with both parties condemning violence while maintaining their ideological frameworks [11][12] - Social media has amplified the divide, with many on the left openly mocking Kirk's death, reflecting a broader trend of dehumanization in political rhetoric [12][14][15] - The incident highlights the fragility of civil discourse and the potential for political violence to escalate further, as seen in the reactions from both sides of the political spectrum [20][24][26]

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold exhibits three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial asset, with prices positively correlated to inflation and negatively correlated to the US dollar and real interest rates[3] - Since 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened due to central banks increasing gold reserves, reflecting declining trust in the US dollar[3] - The supply of gold is relatively stable due to resource scarcity and long exploration and extraction cycles, while demand has shifted from investment to strategic allocation, changing the pricing anchor from "real interest rates" to "central bank purchases"[7] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly after the freezing of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict[8] - As of 2024, the US federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 124.3%, indicating a growing risk to the dollar's credibility and prompting countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold[8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, suggesting a strong and growing demand for gold[10] Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks and political polarization are expected to continue, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increasing central bank demand for gold[9] - The military expenditure of major countries is at historical lows as a percentage of GDP, providing a safety net against potential declines in gold prices[9] - The average annual net gold purchases by central banks from 2022 to 2024 reached 1,059 tons, accounting for 23% of global gold demand, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics[34]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The election of independent candidate Karol Nawrocki as Poland's new president marks a significant political shift, with expectations of continued political polarization and competition in the country [1][4]. Group 1: Election and Political Context - Karol Nawrocki won the presidential election in early June with a narrow margin, officially taking office on August 6 [1]. - His victory was supported by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), which previously held power from 2015 to 2023 and is now the largest opposition party [4]. - The voter turnout for the election reached a record high of 71.63%, indicating a politically polarized society [4]. Group 2: Political Ideology and Background - Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian from Gdańsk, is seen as a defender of nationalist conservative values, emphasizing national and cultural identity [2][4]. - His political platform includes strengthening national sovereignty, opposing excessive EU intervention, and advocating for judicial reforms while maintaining traditional Catholic values [4]. Group 3: Political Stalemate - Nawrocki faces a political stalemate as the Law and Justice Party holds the most seats but lacks a majority, while the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk governs with a majority [5]. - The ongoing conflict between the presidency and the government is expected to continue, particularly regarding judicial reforms and relations with the EU [5][8]. Group 4: Foreign Policy Implications - Nawrocki's presidency may lead to a shift in Poland's foreign policy, with closer ties to the U.S. and a more skeptical stance towards the EU [10]. - He has maintained strong connections with the U.S. Republican Party and has received commitments for continued U.S. military presence in Poland [10]. - Nawrocki supports Ukraine against Russian aggression but is cautious about unconditional geopolitical commitments regarding NATO membership for Ukraine [11].

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating political drama in the U.S. surrounding gerrymandering, particularly in Texas, where Republicans are redrawing congressional districts while Democrats resist through various means [1] - The historical context of gerrymandering is highlighted, tracing back to the early 19th century with the term "Gerrymander" originating from Massachusetts [1] - The article emphasizes the detrimental effects of gerrymandering on democracy, leading to a situation where elected officials manipulate voter demographics to secure their positions, undermining true public representation [2] Group 1 - Gerrymandering has become a common tactic for both major political parties in the U.S., with recent actions in Texas and California illustrating this trend [1][2] - The judicial system, particularly the U.S. Supreme Court, has largely avoided substantive rulings on gerrymandering cases, effectively legitimizing the practice [2] - The manipulation of electoral rules has resulted in a disconnect between popular votes and actual representation, leading to increased public disillusionment with the political system [2] Group 2 - The zero-sum game mentality between the two parties has extended beyond elections, causing dysfunction within the U.S. governance system [2] - Legislative gridlock has become common, with significant issues like budgetary disputes and immigration reform being stalled due to partisan conflicts [2] - The article notes that extreme political polarization has led to increased violence and threats against politicians, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s self-image as a democratic leader [3]