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华利集团(300979):25H1业绩点评:新工厂爬坡顺利,新客户快速放量,静待利润率改善
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-08-24 12:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [6] - The company is experiencing a short-term pressure on profits due to the ramp-up of new factories, but it is expected that profitability will gradually improve as production capacity is released [6] - The company is diversifying its customer base, which enhances its resilience against market uncertainties [6] - The forecast for revenue growth is 11% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 13% in 2027, with net profit expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 4.96 billion yuan respectively [6][4] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Total shares: 1,167 million - Market price: 54.26 yuan - Market capitalization: 63,321.42 million yuan [1] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecast for 2023A: 20.114 billion yuan, 2024A: 24.006 billion yuan, 2025E: 26.671 billion yuan, 2026E: 30.469 billion yuan, 2027E: 34.497 billion yuan - Net profit forecast for 2023A: 3.2 billion yuan, 2024A: 3.84 billion yuan, 2025E: 3.498 billion yuan, 2026E: 4.346 billion yuan, 2027E: 4.962 billion yuan - P/E ratios: 19.8 for 2023A, 16.5 for 2024A, 18.1 for 2025E, 14.6 for 2026E, 12.8 for 2027E [4][6] Performance Analysis - The company reported a gross margin of 21.85% for H1 2025, down 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.2%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is seeing significant growth in European customer revenue, particularly from high-potential clients like Adidas and On [6]
华利集团(300979):新工厂爬坡顺利 新客户快速放量 静待利润率改善
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 12:43
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating short-term pressure on profitability despite a revenue increase. [1][2] Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [1] - In 25Q2, revenue reached 7.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with net profit of 902 million yuan, down 17.3% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for 25H1 decreased by 6.38 percentage points to 21.85%, and the net profit margin fell by 3.17 percentage points to 13.2% [2] - In 25Q2, the gross profit margin was 21.08%, down 7.05 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 12.42%, down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from sports leisure shoes in 25H1 was 11.34 billion yuan, up 10.78% year-on-year, while revenue from sports sandals/slippers and other products surged by 74.35% to 1.05 billion yuan [1] - Outdoor footwear revenue dropped significantly by 57.31% to 260 million yuan [1] - Revenue from North American customers was 9.89 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.43% year-on-year, while European customer revenue soared by 88.94% to 2.397 billion yuan [1] - The company sold 115 million pairs of shoes in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with an average price of approximately 110.09 yuan per pair, up 3.6% year-on-year [1] Customer Diversification and Strategy - The company is experiencing a shift in customer orders, with some older clients seeing a decline, but new client orders have increased significantly [2] - The top five customers now account for 71.88% of revenue, down from 76.61% the previous year, indicating a diversification strategy [2][3] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The new factories are ramping up production as expected, with output in 25H1 reaching 3.73 million pairs from the Vietnam factory, 1.99 million pairs from Indonesia, and 670,000 pairs from China [3] - The company anticipates gradual improvement in profitability as new factory margins improve [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain healthy revenue growth as it continues to expand its high-potential customer base [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to grow by 11%, 14%, and 13% year-on-year, with net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.35 billion, and 4.96 billion yuan, respectively [4]