融券方面，华利集团8月26日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出2300.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额12.41 万元；融券余量2.60万股，融券余额140.27万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，中山华利实业集团股份有限公司位于广东省中山市火炬开发区世纪一路2号，成立日期2004 年9月2日，上市日期2021年4月26日，公司主营业务涉及运动鞋履的开发设计、生产与销售。主营业务 收入构成为：运动休闲鞋89.53%，运动凉鞋/拖鞋及其他8.31%，户外靴鞋2.07%，其他(补充)0.09%。 8月26日，华利集团涨0.65%，成交额1.61亿元。两融数据显示，当日华利集团获融资买入额1488.27万 元，融资偿还1258.72万元，融资净买入229.55万元。截至8月26日，华利集团融资融券余额合计1.09亿 元。 融资方面，华利集团当日融资买入1488.27万元。当前融资余额1.08亿元，占流通市值的0.17%，融资余 额超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 分红方面，华利集团A股上市后累计派现79.36亿元。近三年，累计派现54.85亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华利集团 ...

华利集团 (300979. SZ) 纺织制造 买入(维持) 评级: 分析师:张潇 执业证书编号: S0740523030001 Email: zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师: 邹文婕 相关报告 1、《H1 盈利能力受新工厂爬坡拖累, 拟进行高额中期分红》2025-08-11 2、《Q2盈利能力有望逐步改善,新 客户进入快速放量期》2025-05-06 3、《预计关税影响有限，期待阿迪放 量》 2025-04-14 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20.114 | 24.006 | 26.671 | 30.469 | 34.497 | | 增长率 yoy% | -2% | 19% | 11% | 14% | 13% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3.200 | 3,840 | 3.498 | 4.346 | 4.9 ...

事件：公司披露25H1 业绩，利润端短期有所承压。25H1 实现营业收入126.6 亿元，同比+10.36%；归 母净利润16.6 亿元，同比-11.42%。25Q2 实现营业收入73.1 亿元，同比+9.0%；归母净利润9.02 亿元， 同比-17.3%。 欧洲区客户实现高增。分产品看，25H1 运动休闲鞋收入113.4 亿元，同比+10.78%；运动凉鞋/拖鞋及其 他收入10.5 亿元，同比+74.35%，户外鞋靴收入2.6 亿元，同比-57.31%。判断产品品类结构变化主要系 部分客户产品品类结构调整所致。分地区看（按客户总部所在地划分），北美客户收入98.9 亿元，同 比-0.43%；欧洲客户收入23.97 亿元，同比+88.94%；其他地区客户收入3.64 亿元，同比+45.87%。判断 欧洲客户收入大幅增长主要受阿迪达斯、On 等高潜客户推动。量价拆分来看，25H1 销量1.15 亿双，同 比+6.1%；人民币口径单价约110.09 元，同比约+3.6%。25Q2 销量约0.66 亿双，同比约+6.5%；人民币 口径单价约110.72 元，同比约+2.4%。 Q2 盈利能力受新工厂爬坡影响。25H ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that new customers are driving growth, with improvements in gross margin from new factories in Q2 compared to Q1, while emphasizing the need to monitor subsequent terminal sales and the ramp-up progress of new factories [1][3] Group 2 - Investment recommendations maintain EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.02, 3.57, and 4.27 yuan, respectively, with a target price set at 66.5 yuan based on a PE of 22, which is above the industry average, and a rating of "Buy" is upheld [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 902 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, with a gross margin of 21.08%, down 7.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] - New customers are identified as the main growth driver, with revenue from North America, Europe, and other regions showing year-on-year changes of -0.43%, +88.94%, and +45.87%, respectively, while product categories such as sports leisure shoes and outdoor boots showed varied performance [2] Group 3 - The new factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, and China shipped 3.73 million, 1.99 million, and 670,000 pairs, respectively, in H1, with overall ramp-up progress aligning with company expectations, although gross margins have declined due to many new factories still in ramp-up stages [3] - The overall gross margin for new factories improved in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating a positive trend as operational maturity increases, but caution is advised due to customer hesitance in placing orders amid economic uncertainties in the U.S. [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.661 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.06% to 1.671 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company is experiencing a phase of pressure on profitability due to the transitional efficiency of new factories and a decline in orders from older factories, leading to a temporary drop in gross margin [8][10]. - The company is successfully diversifying its customer base, with significant contributions from new clients like On and New Balance, and a successful partnership with Adidas [9]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the basic earnings per share (EPS) was 1.43 yuan, and the diluted EPS was also 1.43 yuan [4]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) stood at 10.34% [4]. - The company’s total production capacity reached 116.71 million pairs, with a utilization rate of 95.78% [10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.54 billion, 4.07 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [13]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 26.325 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.688 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 10.7% respectively [15][19].

Group 1 - The core stock price of Huali Group reached 52.63 yuan, an increase of 1.39% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 33,525 hands, with a transaction amount of 175 million yuan [1] - Huali Group operates in the textile and apparel sector, specializing in the research, design, production, and sales of sports shoes, including casual sports shoes and outdoor boots [1] Group 2 - The company serves a global customer base that includes several well-known sports brands [1] - The National Sports Administration is developing policy documents to promote event economy, which will enrich event supply [1] - Data indicates that the Jiangsu Urban Football League has driven multi-scenario consumption of 38 billion yuan across Jiangsu [1] Group 3 - According to the disclosed semi-annual report, Huali Group's profit exceeded 100 million yuan in the first half of the year [1] - On August 20, the net inflow of main funds into Huali Group was 8.82 million yuan, while the net outflow over the past five days was 33.76 million yuan [1]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market is facing challenges with a projected decline in global high-end personal luxury goods market size by 1% to €364 billion in 2024, and further expected decline of 2%-5% in 2025 due to economic downturn and geopolitical tensions [2] - High-end brands are shifting towards a more minimalist aesthetic, reducing logo prominence and focusing on classic tailoring, which may lead to decreased brand recognition and increased homogenization [3] - The rise of functional clothing, such as sun-protective garments, reflects a growing health consciousness and outdoor lifestyle among consumers, with the Chinese apparel industry producing over 70 billion pieces annually [4] - Adult women are increasingly purchasing larger children's clothing sizes due to issues with women's sizing and pricing, indicating a demand for better fit and value in women's fashion [5] - Luxury brands are increasingly investing in film and entertainment to enhance cultural influence, with companies like Saint Laurent and LVMH establishing film production arms [6] - Emerging brands are focusing on natural fibers and traditional craftsmanship, creating unique aesthetic identities amidst a trend of logo-less luxury [8] - The new consumer giants are leveraging emotional value and community recognition to thrive in a competitive market, with brands like Labubu and Mxue Ice City gaining traction [9] - South Asian culture is becoming a source of inspiration for luxury fashion, with brands incorporating traditional craftsmanship into their collections [10] - Street retail is gaining importance as brands seek to connect with consumers through community engagement and experiential shopping [12] - High-end sports brands are taking over core shopping districts as luxury brands withdraw, with a focus on experiential retail [13] - L'Oréal's CEO emphasizes the company's diverse portfolio beyond luxury, highlighting growth in emerging markets and a commitment to innovation [14] - COS has successfully repositioned itself as a mid-range brand by balancing quality and affordability, appealing to the rational consumer [15] - Bosideng reported strong financial performance with an 11.6% revenue increase to ¥25.902 billion and a 14.3% net profit increase to ¥3.514 billion, driven by technological empowerment and supply chain optimization [16] - Nike's new Ava Rover shoe combines technology and design for urban exploration, showcasing a trend towards high-performance casual footwear [17] - Luxury brands are embracing digital transformation through KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) to enhance consumer engagement and trust [18] - Daydream launched an AI shopping assistant for personalized fashion recommendations, indicating a shift towards technology-driven retail experiences [20] - The luxury sector lost approximately 15 million customers last year, with a significant decline in sales expected in 2024, highlighting the need for brands to rebuild consumer trust [21] - Local luxury brands are gaining popularity, driven by emotional value and competitive pricing, as international brands face challenges [22] - Decathlon's new store in Nanjing adopts an innovative operational model focusing on community engagement and sustainability [24] - Shein is preparing for a potential IPO in Hong Kong, navigating geopolitical risks and supply chain transparency issues [25] - Baozun's acquisition of Sweaty Betty's China operations reflects a strategy to enhance its e-commerce portfolio amid competitive pressures in the activewear market [26] - Pop Mart's expansion into jewelry with its popop brand has generated consumer interest, though market volatility raises questions about long-term sustainability [28]

Core Viewpoint - Skechers has agreed to be acquired by Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital for over $9 billion, marking the end of its more than 20-year public listing and transitioning to a private company [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price is set at $63 per share, and the deal has been unanimously approved by Skechers' board, expected to close in the third quarter of this year [1] - Following the announcement, Skechers' stock price surged by 25%, achieving the highest intraday increase in over seven years [1] Group 2: Market Context - The strategic shift is seen as a response to the complex international trade environment, particularly the increasing tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have significantly pressured U.S. footwear companies like Skechers [2][4] - Skechers has not provided revenue guidance for the upcoming quarter due to the unpredictable nature of the current environment, as stated by CFO John Vandermore [2] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - Skechers has warned that U.S. government tariff policies could substantially increase operational costs, leading to price hikes and reduced sales [4] - A coalition of 76 footwear brands has expressed concerns to the White House, stating that the tariffs pose a "survival threat" to the footwear industry [4] Group 4: Performance in China - Skechers operates nearly 3,500 stores in China, its largest overseas market, and despite a poor performance this year, it continues to show strong growth globally [5] - The company projects nearly $9 billion in sales for 2024, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, with revenue nearly doubling over the past five years [5] - Skechers has indicated that the privatization will not impact its operations in China, where it aims to continue exploring new growth opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded dividend expectations, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency [6]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 3.71, 4.22, and 4.83 yuan respectively, with a target price of 66.51 yuan based on an 18x PE valuation for 2025 [2][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 20.11 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.46 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating consistent profitability [2][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.97 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 16% [6][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 22.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027, reflecting a stable but slightly decreasing profitability trend [10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.5 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [10].