Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the tone of the monetary policy statement and dot plot will be crucial for future market direction [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut has surged from 66% last month to 90% currently, indicating strong market expectations for a dovish path [2] - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut, it may lead to a "hawkish cut," potentially keeping gold prices under pressure [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data, including the U.S. employment report and JOLTS job openings data, will be released before the rate decision, particularly focusing on hiring trends from September to October [2] Group 3: Global Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties are providing potential support for gold prices, as tensions between countries increase the appeal of safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have faced resistance above $4250 and are currently in a slight correction phase, with market participants awaiting policy guidance [3] - The MACD indicator shows diminishing momentum, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend, with critical support at $4180 and possible declines to the $4155-$4120 range if broken [3] - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve signals further easing, gold prices could aim for the $4220-$4250 resistance zone [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around 3900 points with a trading volume increase of approximately 200 billion, indicating that the main funds are still in the accumulation phase rather than the rally phase [1] Market Analysis - The market is in the fourth wave of adjustment, and it is crucial to break the 3927 gap rather than just maintaining above 3900 points [1] - If the index can surpass 3927 in the next two days, it may prevent a fifth wave of pullback; otherwise, a fifth wave correction is likely to occur [1] Outlook for December - There is no need to be overly pessimistic about December, as signals of easing from both the Federal Reserve and domestic sources are expected [1] - Even if a fifth wave pullback occurs, it is not anticipated to be significant in scale [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights ongoing inflation pressures indicated by PCE data, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to signal any early easing of monetary policy, thus providing solid support for the US dollar [3] - The Trump administration has implemented a new round of tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from multiple economies, including Canada and India, starting August 1, which may impact global supply chains and corporate costs [3] - The US labor market remains robust, as indicated by the latest initial jobless claims at 218,000, slightly below market expectations and previous values, which may support the Fed's current policy stance [3] Group 2 - The current trading of spot silver shows a downward trend, with a daily head and shoulders pattern and a four-hour free-fall pattern, indicating a bearish outlook if it fails to rebound above $36.70 [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $36 and $35.80, while resistance levels are noted at $37.10 and $37.50 [4] - The short-term trading of spot silver is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on the $36.20 and $35.60 support levels [4]