1月28日周三，美联储公布了2026年首场议息会议的结果：维持当前联邦基金利率目标区间在3.50%-3.75%不变。虽然特朗普总统通过司法部传票、解职威胁 以及物色接班人等手段持续施压，但美联储依然选择了长暂停。 | 调性变了：从温和转向强劲 这次美联储的声明里，有一个词的变化非常关键。上个月他们对美国经济的描述还是温和，这个月直接升级到了强劲。 这种措辞的提升，实际上是给"不降息"找了一个坚实的台阶。美联储官员认为，既然劳动力市场已经趋于稳定，招聘未见疲软，那就不急着降息。数据显 示，失业率微降至4.4%，而去年11月的通胀率为2.8%，离2%的目标还有距离。 这其实是美联储在释放"鹰派"信号：既然大家都有活干，物价还没跌到预期，那大家指望的大放水就得再等等。这不仅是管钱袋子，更是美联储在向市场展 示其决策的"一致性"，不受政治博弈的干扰。 | 暂停降息：利息成本的长暂停 | 警惕：11年来最低的消费者信心 虽然美联储说经济强劲，但世界大型企业联合会的数据显示，1月美国消费者信心指数已经跌至11年来的最低水平。 一边是官方口中的"强劲增长"，一边是普通老百姓对经济的"悲观预期"。因为企业新增岗位寥寥，即便退 ...

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, the Nasdaq slightly up by 0.13%, and the S&P 500 down by 0.09% [1] - Technology stocks showed divergent trends, with Tesla and Google both rising over 1%, while Meta fell by more than 1%. JPMorgan's stock plummeted by 4.66% due to spending expectations [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.37%, with Baidu dropping 4.71%, and both Xpeng Motors and Li Auto falling over 3% [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector performed strongly, with COMEX gold futures rising to over $4200, and silver futures surging to over $61.5, reaching a new high for the year [1] - Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The market widely expects this rate cut to be a certainty but may release hawkish signals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, but the tone of the monetary policy statement and dot plot will be crucial for future market direction [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations - The probability of a rate cut has surged from 66% last month to 90% currently, indicating strong market expectations for a dovish path [2] - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut, it may lead to a "hawkish cut," potentially keeping gold prices under pressure [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data, including the U.S. employment report and JOLTS job openings data, will be released before the rate decision, particularly focusing on hiring trends from September to October [2] Group 3: Global Uncertainties - Global geopolitical uncertainties are providing potential support for gold prices, as tensions between countries increase the appeal of safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have faced resistance above $4250 and are currently in a slight correction phase, with market participants awaiting policy guidance [3] - The MACD indicator shows diminishing momentum, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend, with critical support at $4180 and possible declines to the $4155-$4120 range if broken [3] - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve signals further easing, gold prices could aim for the $4220-$4250 resistance zone [3][4]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently on an upward trend, with spot gold reported at $4209.08 per ounce, up 0.29%, and a high of $4213.01 per ounce [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 86.2% for a 25 basis points cut [1] - Analysts predict gold prices will trade between $4200 and $4500 per ounce this year, potentially rising to $4500 to $5000 next year, although physical demand from India and China has weakened due to price corrections [1] Group 2 - A survey shows a split in expectations for gold price movements, with 46% of analysts bullish, 46% expecting sideways movement, and only 8% predicting a decline; among retail investors, 69% are bullish [2] - The market's sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's decisions indicates that future gold price movements will heavily depend on the dovish or hawkish signals from the Fed [2] - Ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Ukraine regarding territorial and security issues may also impact market sentiment [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to closely monitor the dot plot and statements from Fed Chair Powell, as these will influence short-term market direction [3] - Recent trading in the gold market has shown consolidation, with fluctuations between $4162 and $4265 per ounce, indicating potential downward pressure this week [3] - Specific trading strategies suggest short positions if gold prices rise to $4230, with targets set at $4220, $4210, and $4200, while lower support levels are identified at $4190 and below [3]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently trading above $57.80, with a recent opening at $58.31 per ounce and a current price of $57.93, reflecting a decrease of 0.59% [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a "very strong" holiday shopping season, forecasting a 3% growth in real GDP for the year, despite a 0.6% contraction in the economy over the first three months [1] - Consumer confidence has increased by 4.5% month-on-month in December to 53.3, although it remains down 28% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with the FOMC expected to lower the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% [3] - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of two rate cuts in 2025 and one each in 2026 and 2027, with potential adjustments signaling hawkish or dovish stances depending on future projections [2] Group 3 - The medium to long-term outlook for international silver remains bullish, while short-term trends suggest a pattern of rising to new highs followed by pullbacks, with key support levels identified between $54 and $55 [4] - Market participants are advised to wait for prices to drop below the 50-day moving average before considering operational opportunities, with the $50 level being a significant point of interest [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reveals internal divisions among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, but highlighted growing disagreements among its members [1]. - Board member Milan advocated for a more significant cut of 50 basis points to address potential economic downturns, while Kansas Fed President Schmidt preferred to maintain current rates [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Fed Chair Powell indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing uncertainty about future rate cuts despite the recent decision, with the September PCE inflation rate at 2.8%, above the Fed's long-term target [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with no large-scale weakness detected, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to avoid premature policy easing that could raise inflation expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that while the Fed has room for further monetary easing, the pace may slow significantly, potentially shifting from "action at every meeting" to "quarterly adjustments" [5]. - This change reflects the complexity of economic fundamentals and the Fed's intention to minimize excessive market volatility [5]. Group 4: Impact of Rate Cuts - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy may be limited, particularly in real estate and interest-sensitive consumer sectors, due to a weakened refinancing effect [7]. - Relying solely on interest rate tools may not achieve the desired economic boost, indicating that structural policy measures may become crucial in the future [7]. Group 5: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed plans to officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, ceasing the monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and continuing to reinvest in maturing MBS and short-term Treasury bills [8]. - This decision aims to alleviate market concerns about liquidity and marks a transition towards the normalization of monetary policy, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [8].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, reaching 148.5100 with a gain of 0.09% as of the latest report [1] - Japan's core inflation rate for July decreased to 3.1% from 3.3% in June, but remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors showed strong activity, with the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, indicating robust growth in manufacturing [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market as highlighted in the FOMC meeting minutes [2] - The market is cautious about potential hawkish signals from Fed Chair Powell, which could indicate a preference for maintaining high interest rates or further rate hikes to control inflation [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands indicating fluctuations around the mid-band of 147.797 [3] - A breakout above the upper band at 149.604 could lead to further gains, while a drop below the lower band at 145.990 may accelerate declines [3] - The MACD shows signs of consolidation, with a lack of directional breakout, and the RSI is at 51.585, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a "pre-event" atmosphere with the dollar rising, while gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks are showing limited movement near historical highs, indicating a potential adjustment in positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased to 80%, down from 100% previously [3] - Analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to deliver a "hawkish signal" during his speech, with concerns about inflation and slowing employment suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [4][5] Group 2 - Citi's dollar positioning indicator has shifted from a slight short to neutral, indicating that investors currently lack a clear net long or short bias, suggesting a market that is beginning to accept a more "hawkish" Fed [6] - The market is not waiting for surprises but is instead digesting the risks of potential disappointment from Powell's speech, with expectations that he may use ambiguous language to prompt market speculation [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]