Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, reaching 148.5100 with a gain of 0.09% as of the latest report [1] - Japan's core inflation rate for July decreased to 3.1% from 3.3% in June, but remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors showed strong activity, with the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, indicating robust growth in manufacturing [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market as highlighted in the FOMC meeting minutes [2] - The market is cautious about potential hawkish signals from Fed Chair Powell, which could indicate a preference for maintaining high interest rates or further rate hikes to control inflation [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands indicating fluctuations around the mid-band of 147.797 [3] - A breakout above the upper band at 149.604 could lead to further gains, while a drop below the lower band at 145.990 may accelerate declines [3] - The MACD shows signs of consolidation, with a lack of directional breakout, and the RSI is at 51.585, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a "pre-event" atmosphere with the dollar rising, while gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks are showing limited movement near historical highs, indicating a potential adjustment in positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased to 80%, down from 100% previously [3] - Analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to deliver a "hawkish signal" during his speech, with concerns about inflation and slowing employment suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [4][5] Group 2 - Citi's dollar positioning indicator has shifted from a slight short to neutral, indicating that investors currently lack a clear net long or short bias, suggesting a market that is beginning to accept a more "hawkish" Fed [6] - The market is not waiting for surprises but is instead digesting the risks of potential disappointment from Powell's speech, with expectations that he may use ambiguous language to prompt market speculation [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]