美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指下跌0.38%，纳指微涨0.13%，标普500指数跌幅0.09%。科技股走势 分化，特斯拉与谷歌涨幅超1%，Meta下跌超1%，摩根大通因支出预期拖累股价重挫4.66%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌1.37%，百度跌幅达4.71%，小鹏汽车与理想汽车跌幅均超3%。贵金属板块 表现强势，COMEX黄金期货上涨，再度站上4200美元；白银期货大涨，一度超61.5美元，创年内新 高。 来源：同壁财经 相关ETF： 全球科技龙头：纳斯达克ETF（513300） 美股核心宽基：标普ETF（159655） 市场聚焦于美联储即将于今晚公布的利率决议，目前降息25个基点的概率近90%。市场普遍预期本次降 息已无悬念，但可能会释放鹰派信号。 ...

今日周二(12月9日)亚洲时段，黄金价格震荡于4195美元/盎司附近。市场聚焦本周美联储会议，普遍预 期将降息25个基点，但货币政策声明及点阵图是否释放鹰派信号成关键。若美联储暗示未来降息有限， 或引发美元反弹，对金价构成压力。当前，投资者对此次降息的押注明显增加，市场情绪趋于谨慎，静 待美联储政策指引。 摘要今日周二(12月9日)亚洲时段，黄金价格震荡于4195美元/盎司附近。市场聚焦本周美联储会议，普 遍预期将降息25个基点，但货币政策声明及点阵图是否释放鹰派信号成关键。若美联储暗示未来降息有 限，或引发美元反弹，对金价构成压力。当前，投资者对此次降息的押注明显增加，市场情绪趋于谨 慎，静待美联储政策指引。 MACD柱状图动能缩减，快慢线或向下交叉，暗示短期趋势震荡偏弱。若金价跌破4180美元支撑，可能 下探4155-4120美元区间；反之，若美联储释放宽松信号，金价有望冲击4220-4250美元压力带。 目前，黄金走势取决于政策面，市场对降息节奏存在分歧。未来方向关键在于点阵图是否明确宽松空 间。 【要闻速递】 若美联储措辞中性或强硬，黄金或延续调整；若传递宽松信号，则有望重拾上行动力。 在数据层面，美 ...

周一(12月8日)亚洲时段，现货黄金早盘维持上行趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4209.08美元/盎司，上 涨0.29%，最高触及4213.01美元/盎司，最低下探4195.31美元/盎司。市场普遍预期美联储即将在12月会 议降息的推动。然而，美国通胀仍高于目标水平，且经济数据偏强，使美元存在反弹压力，从而可能削 弱金价涨势，但全球央行继续增持黄金，中期基本面依然维持多头。 道明证券策略主管指出，市场对降息的信心增强导致美元小幅走弱，这对黄金构成利好。经济数据显示 美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比涨幅放缓，加之此前公布的就业数据疲软，强化了市场对政策转向的预 期。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储在下周会议上降息25个基点的概率高达86.2%。 机构预测，金价今年将在每盎司4200至4,500美元区间交投，明年可能进一步升至4500至5000美元。不 过，实物需求方面，印度和中国的黄金买盘因等待价格回调而有所减弱。 调查显示，对未来一周金价走势预期，13位分析师意见分歧明显，其中46%看好上涨，46%预计横盘， 仅8%预测下跌；而在163位散户投资者中，69%持看涨情绪，15%看跌，16%预期盘整。这 ...

今日周一(12月8日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于57.80一线上方，今日开盘于58.31美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报57.93美元/盎司，下跌0.59%，最高触及58.61美元/盎司，最低下探57.52美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 点阵图方面，三个月前中位数预计2025年降息两次，2026-2027年各一次。若本次降息后2026-2027年预 期减少，可能被视为鹰派信号；反之，若预期持平或增加，且长期点阵图下移，则为鸽派，施压美元。 本周美联储利率决议备受瞩目，FOMC预计将指标隔夜利率区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银中长期看涨不变，短期继续看冲高下跌为主。每次靠近新高或刷新新高都是回落的机会，下方 重点支撑54-55。市场等待价格回落至50天均线下方时再考虑相关操作机会，而50美元水平恰好处于50 天均线下方区域，这一价位或值得关注。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长Scott Bessent(贝森特)表示，今年迎来"非常强劲"的假日购物季，预测全年实际GDP增长 3%。 数据显示，前三个月经济同比收缩0.6%，第二季度增长3.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reveals internal divisions among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, but highlighted growing disagreements among its members [1]. - Board member Milan advocated for a more significant cut of 50 basis points to address potential economic downturns, while Kansas Fed President Schmidt preferred to maintain current rates [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Fed Chair Powell indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing uncertainty about future rate cuts despite the recent decision, with the September PCE inflation rate at 2.8%, above the Fed's long-term target [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with no large-scale weakness detected, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to avoid premature policy easing that could raise inflation expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that while the Fed has room for further monetary easing, the pace may slow significantly, potentially shifting from "action at every meeting" to "quarterly adjustments" [5]. - This change reflects the complexity of economic fundamentals and the Fed's intention to minimize excessive market volatility [5]. Group 4: Impact of Rate Cuts - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy may be limited, particularly in real estate and interest-sensitive consumer sectors, due to a weakened refinancing effect [7]. - Relying solely on interest rate tools may not achieve the desired economic boost, indicating that structural policy measures may become crucial in the future [7]. Group 5: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed plans to officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, ceasing the monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and continuing to reinvest in maturing MBS and short-term Treasury bills [8]. - This decision aims to alleviate market concerns about liquidity and marks a transition towards the normalization of monetary policy, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [8].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to rise, reaching 148.5100 with a gain of 0.09% as of the latest report [1] - Japan's core inflation rate for July decreased to 3.1% from 3.3% in June, but remains above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the coming months [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors showed strong activity, with the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, indicating robust growth in manufacturing [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market as highlighted in the FOMC meeting minutes [2] - The market is cautious about potential hawkish signals from Fed Chair Powell, which could indicate a preference for maintaining high interest rates or further rate hikes to control inflation [2] Group 3 - The USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, with Bollinger Bands indicating fluctuations around the mid-band of 147.797 [3] - A breakout above the upper band at 149.604 could lead to further gains, while a drop below the lower band at 145.990 may accelerate declines [3] - The MACD shows signs of consolidation, with a lack of directional breakout, and the RSI is at 51.585, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a "pre-event" atmosphere with the dollar rising, while gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks are showing limited movement near historical highs, indicating a potential adjustment in positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased to 80%, down from 100% previously [3] - Analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to deliver a "hawkish signal" during his speech, with concerns about inflation and slowing employment suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [4][5] Group 2 - Citi's dollar positioning indicator has shifted from a slight short to neutral, indicating that investors currently lack a clear net long or short bias, suggesting a market that is beginning to accept a more "hawkish" Fed [6] - The market is not waiting for surprises but is instead digesting the risks of potential disappointment from Powell's speech, with expectations that he may use ambiguous language to prompt market speculation [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, impacting market sentiment towards gold [1] - Gold has failed to break free from its oscillating market conditions, indicating ongoing volatility [1] - The futures market is being analyzed for potential strategies to position ahead of upcoming trends in gold and oil [1] Group 2 - A senior futures researcher is providing in-depth analysis of the current market landscape [1] - The focus includes forward-looking assessments of the fundamentals of gold, oil, and other commodities [1]

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]