Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China shows signs of stabilization, with new home prices in major cities experiencing a shift from decline to stability or slight increases, indicating a potential recovery in the housing sector [1][2]. Group 1: New Home Prices - In February, new home prices in first-tier cities remained stable, with Beijing and Shanghai both increasing by 0.2%, while Guangzhou remained unchanged and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% [1]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 10, while 7 cities saw prices remain stable, marking a total increase of 9 cities compared to the previous month [1]. - Second and third-tier cities experienced a slight decline in new home prices, with decreases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Second-Hand Home Prices - In February, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1%, a reduction in the decline by 0.4 percentage points, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [1]. - The second-hand home prices in second and third-tier cities fell by 0.4% and 0.5%, with the rate of decline also narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Factors contributing to the positive performance of new home prices include significant discounts from developers, the introduction of desirable properties, and increased viewing activity in key cities, which supports price stabilization [2]. - The "reverse Spring Festival" effect in hot first and second-tier cities has driven up viewing enthusiasm, while developers' reduced discounting efforts have led to a narrowing of price declines [2]. - The ongoing demand for low-priced second-hand homes and the stabilization of mid-priced homes are beneficial for both new and second-hand home markets, promoting a healthy cycle in the real estate sector [3].

Group 1 - The real estate market in China is showing positive changes in January 2026, with a recovery in market confidence supported by policy measures [1][2] - The second-hand housing market has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with a 16% month-on-month rise and a 33% year-on-year increase, totaling approximately 810 million square meters in key cities [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities is reported at 12,905 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 0.85%, but the rate of decline has narrowed [1] Group 2 - Various favorable policies have been introduced in January 2026, including tax reductions on housing transactions, which have effectively lowered transaction costs and stimulated demand [2] - Approximately 50 new real estate policies have been implemented across the country, indicating a high frequency of policy support aimed at stabilizing market expectations [2] - The confidence index among real estate agents has increased by 12.39%, driven by improved transaction conditions in core cities and clear policy signals [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a gradual release of demand in March 2026, particularly in core cities, as high-quality land parcels become available [3] - The upcoming "small spring" market in March is anticipated to attract high-net-worth individuals, especially for high-end new properties, while the price decline for entry-level second-hand homes is expected to slow down [3] - The transaction volume for entry-level second-hand homes is projected to increase from March to April 2026, as market conditions improve [3]

Group 1 - In January 2026, Shenzhen's second-hand residential transactions exceeded 5,000 units for the first time in eight months, with 5,281 units transacted, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.96% and a month-on-month increase of 6.88% [1] - The recorded volume of second-hand homes in Shenzhen reached 6,802 units in January 2026, marking a 45.5% year-on-year increase and a 2.9% month-on-month increase, indicating a continuous upward trend [1][2] - The average price index for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen fell by 0.97% month-on-month and 6.00% year-on-year in January 2026, creating space for increased transaction volumes [2] Group 2 - Factors supporting the January market include improved market confidence due to successful sales of high-priced properties in December 2025 and government actions to mitigate negative market sentiment [2] - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 has led some buyers to advance their purchasing decisions, further stimulating demand in the second-hand market [2] - The limited supply of new residential properties has redirected some demand towards the second-hand market, with monthly new home sales remaining below 2,000 units since June 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - The real estate policy is shifting towards stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, with expectations for demand to gradually release in March 2026 [3] - The growth in second-hand transactions, combined with price stabilization in core areas, suggests that the Shenzhen market may see a genuine stabilization in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is rapidly recovering, with signs of a "small spring" in the market, particularly in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2][4][9]. Group 1: Beijing Market - In February 2025, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 11,876 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.6% compared to 6,332 units in February 2024, despite a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% from January 2025 [3]. - The market showed a significant recovery in the second half of February, with weekend transactions exceeding 1,000 units per day, indicating a "small spring" trend [3]. - The number of listings in Beijing increased from approximately 146,000 before the Spring Festival to around 153,000 after, with about 50% of second-hand homes experiencing price increases [3]. Group 2: Guangzhou Market - Guangzhou's second-hand housing market saw a year-on-year increase of 29.04% in February 2025, with 6,278 units signed, and a total area of 62.21 million square meters, reflecting a 26.90% increase [5]. - The market is expected to continue its recovery, with projections indicating that March 2025 could see transaction volumes exceed 10,000 units [5][6]. - The manager's index in Guangzhou rose significantly by 43.29 points to 72.73, indicating increased confidence and anticipated demand in March [6]. Group 3: Shenzhen Market - Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions have shown a continuous growth trend for three weeks, with recorded transactions of 824 units in the sixth week, a 3069.2% increase, and 1,408 units in the eighth week, an 11.7% increase [8]. - The market has returned to pre-holiday levels, with a consistent weekly transaction volume exceeding 1,000 units [8]. - The overall sentiment in core cities, including Shenzhen, indicates a strong recovery in prices, with nearly 49.48% of sampled communities experiencing price increases in January [8].