特朗普上任一年后，数字表面下的经济现实，如同一杯分层鸡尾酒，上层浮着AI巨头带来的股市泡沫，下层沉淀着普通美国人日益艰难的就业困境。 去年底发布的2025年度就业报告显示，美国就业增长为过去十年来最疲软的一年，数据甚至比特朗普接任时的就业市场更加严峻。美联储官员更指出，此前 月度数据可能每月虚增了约6万个岗位。 如果将这部分水分挤掉，2025年全年的就业增长可能接近于零。2026年初的招聘市场依旧冰冷，社交媒体上"#安静辞职"和"就业冰河期"成为职场人共鸣的 热词。 2025年标普500指数却在AI七巨头的推动下创下37次历史新高，但与此同时，全球多个主要股市的涨幅均跑赢美股。 2025年美国就业市场的真相隐藏在数字的游戏背后。面对尴尬的就业数据，白宫试图从不同角度进行解读，有官员暗示增长疲软是因为政府砍掉了"没有生 产力"的政府岗位，属于结构性优化。 一个耐人寻味的现象是就业增长近乎停滞的同时，美国失业率却并未出现灾难性飙升，仅从4.1%温和上升至4.4%。 这种看似矛盾的现象背后有一个关键机制在发挥作用。 特朗普政府通过严厉的移民限制和驱逐政策，大幅减少了劳动力供应。简单来说，找工作的人数虽然在减少，但能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent stability of the US dollar is misleading, as underlying risks are accumulating, with significant declines earlier in the year and temporary support factors now appearing weak [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The US dollar experienced a nearly 11% decline from January to April, followed by a brief recovery due to strategic concessions on tariffs and stable employment data [1]. - Recent tariff measures introduced by President Trump, particularly on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are raising concerns about economic protectionism and potential price increases [1][2]. - The US employment market is showing signs of fatigue, with non-farm payroll reports failing to exceed 100,000 for three consecutive months, historically a recession indicator [2][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with recent resignations and potential political influences on monetary policy [2]. - Speculation about future Fed leadership includes candidates who may prioritize political objectives over traditional monetary policy, potentially undermining the credibility of the Fed [2][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The reduction in short positions against the dollar suggests a temporary stabilization, but ongoing fundamental deterioration and rising political risks indicate clear downward pressure on the dollar [3][4]. - The euro is largely reacting to US macroeconomic changes, with limited upward movement despite some narrowing of interest rate differentials [3]. Group 4: Summary of Risks - The foundations supporting the dollar's recent resilience—tariff adjustments, temporary stability from Powell, and reliable employment data—are now crumbling, leading to increased risks for the dollar [4][5]. - The market is now focused on which negative factor will trigger the dollar's downward trend first [5].