摘要 第一，根据美国劳工部8月1日公布数据，7月美国就业数据显著走低。7月新增非农7.3万人，低于预期的10.4万人。此外，前两月数据显著下修，5月和6月 数据共下修25.8万人，5月数据下修12.5万人至1.9万人，6月数据下修13.3万人至1.4万人。由于几天前公布的美国二季度GDP数据、7月"小非农"ADP就业 数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二，为何非农数据波动那么大？实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的 统计方法vs越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（NBD）的技术性失真。NBD模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近 年的复杂宏观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因，在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法 立即适应，从而使得初始就业数据偏离实际情况，带来后续大幅修正；三是BLS调查问卷收集率低，这一问题一直存在质疑但持续没有解决；当然，对于 7月份数据来说，这一因素可能并非关键，近三个月的数据收集率相对稳定。四是近年美国经济政策的方差较大，比如移民政策、关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].