萨姆法则

Search documents
宏观快评:5月美国非农数据点评:就业稳中趋弱,亮点在时薪增长
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-08 00:25
Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]
就业稳中趋弱,亮点在时薪增长——5月美国非农数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-06-07 14:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].
美国经济衰退或滞胀概率几何?|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-03-21 10:30
关于当前状况 随着这次衰退结束后经济迅速恢复并过热,通胀大幅上升,美联储为降低通胀历时1年多持续加息。 2022年特别是2023年,包括美联储在内各界普遍预测美国经济将会衰退,但结果相反,美国经济一直保 持强劲增长。去年8月,由于7月份新增就业大幅下降,失业率明显上升,再加其他因素,引起了市场恐 慌,认为失业率上升触发了"萨姆法则",预示美国经济开始衰退,但后来也没有发生,预测再次失败。 这次呢? 这次不同以往,经济数据和经济状况呈现混合、复杂的图景,其中既有大量指向衰退的信号,也有一些 保持稳健增长的指标,既有预期类的"软指标",也有实际发生的"硬指标",需要深入、细致分析辨别, 既看静态状况,更看动态趋势,剔除暂时性因素,把握趋势性因素,也就是美联储说的区别"噪音和信 号"。 目前指向衰退的既有预期类"软指标",比如亚特兰大联储预测GDP下降、消费者信心指数大幅下跌、小 企业乐观指数连续下降等,也有不少现实类的数据和动态,比如月度零售数据大幅走弱,零售商、百货 商店和快餐业、航空业最新销售及预期指引疲软,家庭债务增加,现金储备减少,贷款、信用卡拖欠率 上升,各类收入群体消费支出都更为谨慎等。鲍威尔称预期类 ...