证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 08 月 05 日 美国 7 月非农："修订风波"暴露美国就业市场脆弱性 [Table_Author] 杨见一 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320525050001 证书:S1320523020004 核心观点： 7 月美国非农就业大幅低于预期；失业率维持 4.2%。美国 7 月非农新增 7.3 万人，大幅不及预期的 10.6 万人，前值 1.4 万人；失业率小幅回升至 4.2%，预期为 4.3%，前值 4.1%。数据公布同时，劳工部调整 5-6 月新增 非农就业数据，5 月由初值公布的 13.9 万下调至 1.9 万，6 月由初值的 14.7 万下修至 1.4 万，合计下修 25.3 万人，幅度空前。修订后，近三月 平均新增就业仅有 3.5 万，大幅低于一季度平均的 11.1 万，反映此前就业 强劲或被系统性高估，引发市场避险。数据公布后，市场重新押注美联储 9 月、10 月各降息 25bps，降息路径大幅上移。 有关数据大幅度下修，劳工部官方仅给出两个常规解 ...

赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇、赵宇、李欣越（赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 美国7月就业数据弱于市场预期，引发市场震动，核心问题在于5、6月就业的大幅下修。就业下修的背后是统计因素，还是经济走弱？联储9月降息是否已 是"板上钉钉"？ 热点思考：美国劳动力市场：脆弱的"紧平衡" 一问：美国非农数据的"预期差"？并不是7月有多差，而是5、6月没有那么好。7月非农新增就业略弱于预期，但关键是5、6月就业人数下修12.5、13.3万 人。结构上，就业下修主要集中在政府部门。5-7月非农就业数据卸下了美国劳动力市场"紧平衡"的"伪装"。 二问：5、6月就业为何被大幅下修？统计因素难以解释，主因是就业市场转弱。市场猜测"统计因素"是此次非农下修的主因。但是，经分析发现，企业生 死假设、季调、回复率均无法完全解释就业下修。历史上，非农下修往往对应着经济走弱的背景，对于此次数据或更具解释力。 五问：9月美联储会否降息？7月非农数据发布后，市场定价9月降息25bp的概率升至80%。7月非农发布之后，市场呈现"衰退交易"：美债利率、美元指数 回落，金价上涨，美股下跌，市场认为9月降息的概率已高达80%。 ...

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3%[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, contributing to the decline in the unemployment rate[3] Employment Sector Performance - Government employment was the primary driver of the high job growth in June, adding 73,000 jobs compared to the previous month's 7,000[4] - Private sector job growth remained weak, with manufacturing jobs decreasing by 7,000 and wholesale trade jobs declining by 6,600[4] - The service sector added 68,000 jobs, but this was a slowdown from previous months[4] Structural Risks - The decrease in the labor force participation rate indicates underlying structural weaknesses in the labor market, despite the positive employment figures[5] - The rising number of unemployed individuals, despite a falling unemployment rate, suggests potential future challenges for the job market[5] - Immigration policies may lead to a continued decline in labor supply, potentially increasing unemployment rates without a corresponding rise in the unemployment rate[5] Market Implications - The strong employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year, with markets now betting on no rate cut in July and one cut each in September and December[5] - However, the long-term outlook for rate cuts has decreased significantly, reflecting increased risks to the U.S. economy[5] - The ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs may complicate the fulfillment of market expectations for rate cuts[5]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing market forecasts[2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, while the labor participation rate decreased from 62.4% to 62.3%[2] - Hourly wage growth was lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month, compared to the forecast of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly cooled, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 25.3% to 4.7% and September from 91% to 70.7%[2] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock markets and the dollar index rose, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased[2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.77%, the Nasdaq by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 by 0.83%[2] Group 3: Employment Market Analysis - The employment market conditions index, based on 15 employment-related indicators, recorded 0.389, slightly better than the previous months but weaker than the end of last year[4] - Employment growth breadth remains at a cycle low since 2015, with the monthly employment diffusion index dropping from 51.8% to 49.6%[4] - Government sectors contributed 50% of the new jobs, with significant growth in education and healthcare services, while private sector job growth was below expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll report for May showed resilience in the labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 126,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, but there was notable internal structural divergence, with the U1 unemployment rate decreasing and the U4 rate increasing [2] - Job growth in the service sector was strong, with an increase of 145,000 jobs, particularly in leisure and hospitality, as well as transportation and warehousing, while the goods-producing sector saw a decline of 13,000 jobs [2] Group 2: Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-over-year growth rate steady at 3.9% [2] - The broad increase in wages across various sectors has intensified inflation concerns, providing the Federal Reserve with more reasons to maintain a cautious stance [2] Group 3: China's Foreign Trade Performance - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total goods trade value reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports fell by 3.8% to 7.27 trillion yuan [3] - The central region of China led the growth in foreign trade, significantly outpacing the national average, supported by the "Central China Rising" strategy [3] Group 4: US-China Economic Negotiations - Following internal conflicts within the US administration, there is potential for a shift in the US's hardline stance during US-China economic negotiations, with initial meetings expected to yield positive outcomes [4] - US Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary reported productive discussions, indicating a possible easing of external pressures on China's economy [4]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the May non-farm payroll data, highlighting that while job additions slightly exceeded expectations, the overall employment market shows signs of slowing down, with a notable focus on wage growth as a positive aspect [1]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, surpassing the expected 130,000, with job growth concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and financial activities (+13,000) [2][16]. - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this stability was achieved at the cost of a declining labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.6% to 62.4% [5][22]. - The employment growth breadth has decreased, with the employment diffusion index dropping to 50%, indicating that job growth is becoming less widespread across various sectors [4][16]. Group 2: Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth in May was a highlight, with hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, also above the anticipated 3.7% [6][31]. - The article emphasizes that the wage growth is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of consumers, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, amidst rising inflation concerns [6][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8% [3][35]. - The stock market reacted positively, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising, indicating a rebound in risk appetite among investors [3][35].

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, continuing a downward trend from previous months[2] - The combined downward revision for March and April was 95,000, indicating a potential overestimation of current employment levels[2][5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%[2][10] Sector Analysis - Job growth in May was primarily driven by the service sector, which added 145,000 jobs, while government employment decreased by 22,000[8] - Manufacturing jobs saw a decline of 13,000, influenced by tariff policies[2][8] - The federal government has reduced employment by 59,000 since January, reflecting ongoing layoffs[5][8] Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%[13] - The average workweek remained steady at 34.3 hours, suggesting stable wage growth may support consumer spending[13] Market Expectations - Following the release of the May non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly adjusted to two potential cuts within the year, with the earliest possible in September[21] - Despite the overall stability in unemployment rates, the declining labor force participation and continuous downward revisions in employment data suggest a cooling job market[21] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[25][26]