Workflow
就业指标
icon
Search documents
内需主导,民生为先【华福宏观•陈兴团队】
陈兴宏观研究· 2026-03-05 07:12
Economic Growth and Inflation - The government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, allowing for flexibility in policy implementation while aiming for better outcomes [2] - The CPI target for 2026 remains at 2%, with a focus on controlling inflation and improving corporate profitability and household income expectations [2] Employment Stability - The target for urban new employment in 2026 is maintained at over 12 million, with the urban survey unemployment rate aimed to stay around 5.5% [3] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a deficit rate around 4% and increasing the deficit scale to 5.89 trillion yuan [6] - Local special bond quotas are set at 4.4 trillion yuan, and the issuance of long-term special government bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan to support key initiatives [6] Efficiency of Fiscal Funds - The fiscal policy structure will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of fund usage, with an emphasis on supporting consumption, investment in human capital, and ensuring livelihood [9] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, utilizing structural monetary policy tools to support domestic demand and key sectors such as technology and small enterprises [9] Consumer Promotion - The government will enhance consumer policies, including support for low-income groups and the promotion of service consumption, aiming for sustainable growth in domestic demand [12] Investment Focus - The investment strategy will prioritize both "investment in material" and "investment in people," with an increase in central budget investment and support for social capital investment [13] New Economic Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of the real economy, with plans to support traditional industries and develop emerging sectors such as integrated circuits and aerospace [14] Real Estate Market - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by optimizing supply and enhancing housing security for newly married and multi-child families [14]
下周五非农恢复正常时间公布
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-03 05:32
Core Viewpoint - Investors are anticipating a series of new data releases next week, particularly focusing on December's employment indicators, starting with the ADP report on Wednesday and culminating with the non-farm payroll data on Friday, marking the first release since September of the previous year [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% according to Capital Economics [1] - Citigroup predicts a further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.7% [1]