文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 一 、 省级两会何时召开？ 省级两会通常在农历春节前召开完毕。 今年 春节在 2 月中旬，因此 省级两会集中在 1 月下旬到 2 月上旬。但到 1 月下旬即可初步把握 2026 年省级两会的整体基调。 一方面， GDP 占比过半省份明确在 1 月召开两会。 截至目前，已有 17 省市明确在 1 月召开人代会。 2024 年， 这 17 省 GDP 合计在全国占比 57.3% 。 另一方面， 6 个经济大省中，有 4 个经济大省明确于 1 月召开两会 。在每年省级两会中，我们尤其关注经济大省情 况，因为全国 GDP 高度集中在这 6 个省份中， 2024 年 GDP 合计占比 44.4% 。其中浙江作为经济强省率先开局 （ 1 月 14 日），河南、山东、广东则分别将于 1 月 26 日、 1 月、 1 月下旬召开人代会。江苏召开时间为 2 月上 旬，四川还待定。 二、省级两会关注什么？ 1 、未来五年 GDP 目标：是否设置目标、是否为区间目标。目前而言，已召开会议的长沙为区间目标， "未来五 ...

❖ 省级两会关注什么？ 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 地方两会的"信息点" ❖ 省级两会什么时候召开？ 省级两会通常在农历春节前召开完毕。今年春节在 2 月中旬，因此省级两会集 中在 1 月下旬到 2 月上旬。但到 1 月下旬即可初步把握 2026 年省级两会的整 体基调。 一方面，GDP 占比过半省份明确在 1 月召开两会。截至目前，已有 17 省市明 确在 1 月召开人代会。2024 年，这 17 省 GDP 合计在全国占比 57.3%。 另一方面，6 个经济大省中，有 4 个经济大省明确于 1 月召开两会。在每年省 级两会中，我们尤其关注经济大省情况，因为全国 GDP 高度集中在这 6 个省 份中，2024 年 GDP 合计占比 44.4%。其中浙江作为经济强省率先开局（1 月 14 日），河南、山东、广东则分别将于 1 月 26 日、1 月、1 月下旬召开人代会。江 苏召开时间为 2 月上旬，四川还待定。 1、未来五年 GDP 目标：是否设置目标、是否为区间目标。目前而言，已召开 会议的长沙为区间目标，"未来五年主要预期目标：地区生产总值年均增长 5%- 5.5%"，此前"十四五"时 ...

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary for stabilizing employment, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihoods [2][4][5] - The target aligns with China's actual economic conditions and development laws, and is considered achievable [2][3][4] - Factors supporting this target include the ongoing recovery of the economy, the rise of new industries, and supportive macroeconomic policies [3][4] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Target - The CPI growth target has been adjusted down to around 2%, marking the first time it has been set below 3% since 2004 [6][8] - This adjustment reflects the current economic situation, where deflationary pressures are more significant than inflationary ones [6][7] - The government aims to improve supply-demand relationships and stabilize prices through various policies [6][8] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate is proposed to be set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [9][10] - This marks the highest deficit level since the implementation of proactive fiscal policies in 2008, indicating a strong commitment to economic recovery [9][10] - The increased fiscal spending will focus on social welfare, technological innovation, and infrastructure investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the special tone of the recent National Two Sessions, highlighting the effects of previous economic stimulus and the anticipation of upcoming stimulus measures, reflecting a unique expectation from the public [5]. Summary by Sections National Two Sessions Overview - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC) held their sessions on March 3 and March 4, respectively, with significant data shared, including a GDP exceeding 134 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 5% [3]. - The sessions are characterized by a focus on current macroeconomic changes and hot topics, with a closer connection to recent updates compared to previous years [3][4]. Key Agenda Items - The CPPCC session will last six days, focusing on reviewing reports and discussing government work [9]. - The NPC session will last seven days, with key agendas including the review of government work reports and budget plans for 2025 [11]. Economic Targets and KPIs - The expected GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, with a potential CPI target down to 2% and a fiscal deficit rate projected to rise to 3.8%-4% [15][17]. - The GDP growth target reflects a slight decrease from the previous year's average growth target of 5.3% [17]. Economic Stimulus Measures - The fiscal spending plan includes a projected deficit of 5.5 trillion yuan and an increase in broad fiscal funds by approximately 2 trillion yuan, reaching 12 trillion yuan [21]. - Special bonds are expected to be issued for significant projects, including 1.5-2 trillion yuan for long-term special bonds and 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan for bank capital injections [21]. Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth in 2024, while investment and exports contribute 25.2% and 30.3%, respectively [28][30]. - The focus on consumption is expected to increase, with many local governments prioritizing domestic demand and consumption in their annual goals [33]. Industry Focus - The article highlights emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and digital economy as key areas of interest for future growth [44]. Public Interest Proposals - Various proposals from NPC representatives focus on enhancing public welfare, including suggestions for paid leave policies, tax adjustments, and support for elderly care, reflecting a growing concern for social issues [49].