Group 1 - The U.S. job market is experiencing a "no firing, no hiring" trend as 2025 approaches, with job stability becoming a major concern for workers [1][3] - According to a Mercer survey, job stability is now the second biggest concern for U.S. workers, following the ability to pay monthly living expenses, reflecting a disconnect between individual perceptions and macroeconomic data [3][4] - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, yet many Americans feel economic pressure due to high inflation and rising living costs, leading to increased anxiety about job security [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with new job creation concentrated in the healthcare sector [4] - A Michigan University consumer confidence survey indicated that 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, contributing to a nearly 30% decline in consumer confidence compared to the previous year [5][6] - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to only lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for indebted Americans [7] - The household debt report shows that mortgage balances account for the largest share of debt at $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [7][8] - The credit market is exhibiting "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from a booming stock market, while low-income families face financial pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging "no firing, no hiring" trend in the U.S. job market as 2025 comes to a close, highlighting concerns over job stability amid rising household debt and economic uncertainty [3]. Employment Stability Risks - According to a Mercer survey, job stability has become the second biggest concern for U.S. workers in 2025, following the ability to cover monthly living expenses [4]. - The fear of unemployment has surged from the seventh position in 2023 to the second position in 2025, indicating a significant shift in worker priorities [4]. - Despite a reported GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3, there is a disconnect between macroeconomic data and individual experiences, with many feeling economic pressure due to high inflation and market volatility [5]. Household Debt Reaches New Highs - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [8]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates only once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for indebted Americans [8]. - The largest portion of household debt is mortgage debt, totaling $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [8]. Economic Outlook and Consumer Sentiment - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with a concentration of new jobs in the healthcare sector [6]. - Consumer confidence has declined significantly, with a nearly 30% drop in the consumer confidence index compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. - A survey indicated that 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise further in the coming year, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economy [6].