2025年8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表主旨演讲，围绕当日同步发布的 最新版《关于长期目标与货币政策策略的声明》(以下简称《共识声明》)，系统阐述了2025年美联储货 币政策框架的演进情况。作为美联储货币政策的核心指导性文件，《共识声明》自2012年由时任美联储 主席伯南克主导制定以来，已历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订。 核心内容有哪些？ 底层逻辑是什么？ 对我国相关改革提供了哪些启示？ 中国农业银行金融市场部高级经济师邢炜近日撰文对上述问题进行了梳理和分析。 美联储货币政策框架的演进脉络：基于《共识声明》的几次关键调整 《共识声明》自2012年制定以来，历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订，形成了"确立框架-调 整框架-回归最初框架"的演进轨迹。2012年，《共识声明》首次确立，搭建通胀目标制及双重使命平衡 的基础框架；2020年，《共识声明》首次修订，引入平均通胀目标制和就业缺口规则应对有效利率下限 (ELB，核心是指政策利率下降到该水平后，继续降息无法有效刺激经济)约束；2025年，《共识声明》 第二次修订，放弃特殊规则回归平衡双重使命的初始逻辑 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].