宏观专题报告 美联储将迎来供给侧改⾰者 !如何理解 Warsh（沃什）的货币政策框架？ 2026 年 1 ⽉ 31 ⽇ （ü）美联储资产负债表和 QE：Warsh 历来批评量化宽松（QE），但这不意味着他就 任后会⼤规模的对美联储持有的各种资 产进⾏缩 减。结合其对货币、财 政、通 胀 间关系 的理解来看，缩表的本质还是 为了更好的进⾏降 息， 并控制通胀预期。 （ß）货币与财政的关系：Warsh 认为财政部在尊重货币政策的前提 下应和美联储协 作，以清晰而审慎地向市场描述未来的资产负债表规模和所期望实现的⽬标。但同时， 美联储与财政部的合作也可能意味着，如果没有 Bessent 的 同意与配合，Warsh 也不 会开启⼤规模的量化紧缩。 （´）通 胀 ：对 于 Warsh 来说，" 通 胀 是 ⼀种选择"。其关于缩表的论述本质上是为了 通 过 控 制货币 数 量 和稳定通胀预期来 控 制通胀 ， 也 即缩表有利于通胀预期的稳定。 Warsh 并不会因为担忧近期的通胀⻛险而拒绝降 息， 他也表达过 在 AI 提升⽣ 产效率 的情况下，这类进步会在通胀稳定下⽀持更⾼的增⻓。 （Æ）⾦ 融 监 管 ：Warsh ...

Core Viewpoint - The assessment of Kevin Warsh's potential leadership at the Federal Reserve is influenced by his past views, which are seen as a positive sign for the U.S. market facing rising risk premiums [1] Group 1: Background and Experience - Warsh served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, a period that included the credit boom, the 2008 financial crisis, and the early recovery phase [1] - His comments during this time focused on credibility, restraint, and institutional constraints in shaping monetary policy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Views - Warsh has expressed skepticism about maintaining prolonged loose monetary policies and has publicly opposed aggressive balance sheet policies [1] - He has a high tolerance for market volatility if it helps maintain price discovery mechanisms [1] Group 3: Economic and Institutional Leadership - Controlling inflation is viewed by Warsh as a prerequisite for sustainable growth, rather than a variable factor optimized for employment [1] - His recent comments are particularly relevant for the market and the U.S. dollar, reflecting investor concerns about institutional credibility and government risk [1] - Warsh emphasizes that the economic and institutional leadership of the U.S. is fundamental to the dollar's status as a reserve currency, which he believes is a privilege earned through credibility, not a negotiable asset [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as a crucial pillar for U.S. economic stability, with a call for policy decisions to be based on professional judgment rather than political cycles [2] - There are multiple experienced candidates for leadership positions within the Federal Reserve, which is expected to maintain policy continuity regardless of who is appointed [2] - The investigation regarding the construction costs of the Federal Reserve headquarters is characterized as a routine information check rather than a substantive accusation against the central bank's operations [3] Group 2: Trade Policy - The administration retains operational flexibility in trade policy, indicating that unified tariff measures could still be implemented even in the face of unfavorable judicial rulings [3] Group 3: Housing Policy - A new housing finance arrangement is being considered, allowing residents to use part of their 401(k) retirement funds for down payments, aimed at alleviating down payment pressures while protecting long-term retirement assets [3][4] - Housing affordability has become a significant concern for voters, influencing policy priorities, especially in the context of high home prices and mortgage rates [4] - The government is engaging with major banks regarding credit card products, with potential measures that could advance without relying on congressional legislation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for interbank funding and bond supply in the first quarter of 2026, emphasizing that concerns over long-term bond supply do not contradict the continuation of loose funding conditions, with the central bank likely maintaining low interest rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Funding Conditions - The continuation of loose funding conditions and concerns over long-term bond supply are not contradictory; the current issue is not a lack of liquidity but rather insufficient demand for long-term bonds from institutions [1]. - The central bank's willingness to support interbank funding is crucial; despite seasonal factors and government bond issuance, the central bank's ability to smooth funding fluctuations is expected to remain strong [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - Since the second half of 2024, the central bank has been iterating its monetary policy framework to enhance liquidity management, which is expected to lead to a stable and relatively loose funding environment in early 2026 [3]. - The central bank may employ various tools, such as large-scale MLF operations or adjustments in reserve requirements, to manage liquidity effectively [3]. Group 3: Deposit Rates and Market Reactions - The article predicts that the central bank's actions will lead to a decline in deposit rates, with a significant portion of fixed-term deposits maturing in the first quarter of 2026, which could further lower rates [3]. - The one-year deposit rate is expected to stabilize around 1.60-1.65%, with a downward trend anticipated as favorable factors emerge [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar is experiencing a consolidation trend against the US dollar, with market attention on the potential for intervention by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [1] Exchange Rate Analysis - Analysts from Malayan Banking Berhad noted that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the Singapore dollar has risen to 1.8% above the midpoint of its NEER fluctuation range, indicating a risk of potential intervention [1] - The current exchange rate for USD/SGD is reported at 1.2804, showing little change [1] Monetary Policy Framework - The MAS's monetary policy framework focuses on managing the Singapore dollar against a basket of trade-weighted currencies (SGD NEER), ensuring that the SGD NEER remains within the predetermined range [1]

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting led by the Governor of the People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of implementing the central economic work conference's spirit and aligning with the national financial system's requirements to ensure effective macroeconomic management and financial governance [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted that despite external pressures and internal challenges, China's economy has made significant progress, achieving major social and economic development goals, marking a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8]. - The meeting underscored the need for the People's Bank of China to guide its work by Xi Jinping's thoughts, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress, and adhere to a stable yet progressive work approach [2][8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The meeting called for the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [4][10]. - It was emphasized to enhance financial support for the real economy, particularly in areas like expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [4][10]. - The meeting also stressed the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks, maintaining financial stability, and ensuring a balanced approach to economic growth and financial risk prevention [4][11]. Group 3: Institutional and Structural Reforms - The meeting outlined the need to strengthen the central bank's institutional framework, improve the monetary policy system, and enhance the execution and transmission of monetary policies [3][9]. - It was noted that a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and mechanisms for systemic financial risk prevention should be established to ensure a resilient financial market [3][9]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Financial Openness - The meeting highlighted the importance of advancing high-level financial openness and maintaining national financial security, including promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and developing a robust cross-border payment system [5][11]. - It was also mentioned that the People's Bank of China should actively participate in global financial governance reforms and enhance bilateral and multilateral financial cooperation [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, clarifying misconceptions about the Fed's inflation target and its monetary policy framework, particularly the abandonment of the average inflation targeting approach established in 2020 [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections Economic Conditions - Powell highlighted the recovery of the labor market post-pandemic, noting a decline in job growth to an average of 35,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 per month in 2024 [1][3]. - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, but labor supply is shrinking, influenced by changes in immigration policy [1][3]. - Economic growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending also decreasing [1][3]. Inflation Insights - The total PCE index increased by 2.6% over the past 12 months, while core PCE rose by 2.9%, with a 1.1% rebound in commodity prices [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, stating that current policy rates are 100 basis points lower than a year ago but still restrictive [3][5]. Policy Framework Update - Powell announced a shift in the monetary policy framework, moving away from the flexible average inflation target established in 2020, which allowed for periods of inflation below 2% to be compensated by higher inflation later [5][15]. - The new framework directly targets a 2% inflation rate annually, removing the compensatory mechanism due to the challenges posed by high inflation during the pandemic [5][15]. - Powell reiterated that the 2% target remains a cornerstone for price stability and supports flexible economic decision-making [5][15]. Miscommunication and Market Reaction - A misleading screenshot circulated on social media, suggesting that the Fed had completely abandoned the 2% inflation target, leading to widespread panic and speculation about a potential dollar collapse [5][7]. - The misinformation gained traction, particularly in the cryptocurrency community, with many interpreting it as a bullish signal for Bitcoin [7][9]. - Following Powell's speech, the stock market initially dropped by 0.5% but rebounded the next day, indicating a mixed market reaction to the news [7][9]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The event highlighted the importance of accurate information dissemination in the digital age, as the rapid spread of misinformation can significantly impact market confidence [9][20]. - Powell's commitment to a transparent review of the Fed's framework every five years aims to maintain clarity and stability in monetary policy [9][20]. - Overall, the adjustments made by the Fed are seen as a response to lessons learned from the pandemic, with a focus on maintaining price stability and avoiding prolonged high inflation [20].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing several key measures to enhance financial stability and support economic recovery, including the resumption of government bond trading, credit repair policies for individuals, and the optimization of the digital currency management system [3][4][7][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The PBOC will resume open market operations for government bonds to enhance monetary policy tools and improve the bond market's functionality [3]. - The central bank plans to implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit records, particularly for those who have repaid debts affected by the pandemic [4]. - The PBOC aims to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity remains ample in the financial system [10]. Group 2: Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC is focused on building a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to monitor the relationship between macroeconomic performance and financial risks [5]. - There will be an emphasis on assessing the systemic importance of financial institutions and implementing additional regulatory measures as needed [6]. Group 3: Digital Currency and Financial Innovation - The PBOC is optimizing the management system for digital currency, encouraging more commercial banks to participate in its operations [7]. - The central bank is exploring mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific circumstances [8]. Group 4: Regulation of Virtual Currencies - The PBOC will continue to combat the operation and speculation of virtual currencies within the country, maintaining a cautious approach towards stablecoins and their associated risks [9].