点击小程序查看报告原文 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话被市场视为货币转松的 "鸽派"信号。但我们认为，鲍威尔的言论并没有给出降息持续性 与幅度的强指引，而只是向市场阐明美联储政策的"反应函数"——即在就业风险大于通胀时，美联储倾向降低利率。然而，在显著更高的关税税 率与收紧的移民政策之下，就业与通胀风险并存，如果通胀风险超越就业，鲍威尔仍可以使用同样的"反应函数"叫停降息。由此，市场不宜将鲍 威尔的讲话视为一系列宽松的起点，而是应认识到就业和通胀目标矛盾时，货币政策面临的挑战。若关税和移民政策进一步推升"类滞胀"压力， 使美联储进退两难，届时也不会出现真正意义上的货币宽松。市场风险偏好或将下降，波动亦将随之加剧。 鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话中表示，"由于政策处于限制性区域，经济前景和风险平衡的转变可能意味着美联储需要调整货币政 策"（Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warra ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【美联储前副主席称美联储料谨慎下调政策利率】Pimco全球顾问、美联储前副主席Richard Clarida在一 份报告中表示，美联储近期似乎会下调政策利率，但会持谨慎态度。上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨 会上备受期待的演讲令市场满意，美联储推出修订后的货币政策框架也未让美联储观察人士感到意外。 从长期来看，美联储重申了对双重使命的承诺，同时仅对其货币政策框架进行了细微澄清。 ...

记者丨吴斌 编辑丨李莹亮 "40多年前，堪萨斯城联储成功邀请沃克尔来到大提顿国家公园，我很自豪能延续这一传统。"当地时间 8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的发言意味深长。 20世纪70年代，美国通胀率曾一度高达13.3%。为遏制恶性通胀，时任美联储主席沃克尔将利率前所未 有地提高到了20%，最终遏制住了通胀，付出的代价是美国GDP增速从1978年的5.5%降至了1982年 的-1.8%。 两个时代各有特点，鲍威尔的表现可圈可点，一方面，虽然疫情暴发后美联储抗通胀的动作稍慢，鲍威 尔后知后觉，但没有出现方向性错误，其任期内数十年未见的高通胀基本被"暴力加息"浇灭，长期通胀 预期并未失控。 面向未来，鲍威尔更新了外界期待已久的美联储货币政策框架，从"灵活平均通胀目标制"（FAIT）转 向"灵活通胀目标制"（FIT），在最初的动荡后最终实现了"拨乱反正"。 在"谢幕演出"上，鲍威尔希望后人会将自己视为另一个沃克尔，留下自己的"遗产"，他的愿望能否实 现？ 误判 在疫情暴发后，鲍威尔一度判断失误，美国通胀率意外飙升至数十年未见的高位。 在2020年通胀率低于目标之后，2021年3月和4月大幅攀升。最初的通胀率 ...

来源：滚动播报 8月22日，美联储公布了其五年一次的货币政策框架审查结果。该框架是一份旨在指导其货币政策决策 的战略文件。 1、政策制定者澄清了2020年的一项转变，即官员们不会在失业率较低时加息以抑制潜在 通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们一致认为，货币政策决策不应"仅仅"基于他们对长期失业率应稳 定在何处的估计。但他表示，2020年的这一变化从未旨在"永久放弃"在劳动力市场因预期通胀上升而强 劲时加息的能力。 2、官员们删除了表示他们只会应对充分就业"不足"的措辞。长期目标和货币政策战 略声明现在更加明确地指出，"就业率有时可能高于对充分就业的实时评估，但这并不一定会对物价稳 定造成风险"。 3、美联储官员重申了2%的通胀目标以及稳定通胀预期的重要性。但政策制定者放弃了 2020年推出的"补偿策略"方案，该方案要求容忍高于目标的通胀，以弥补低于目标的时期。 4、该战略 文件现在表示，"货币政策战略旨在促进广泛经济条件下的充分就业和物价稳定。" 鲍威尔表示，这与 之前将低利率描述为"经济格局的决定性特征"的措辞形成了鲜明对比。 该框架的更新已获得联邦公开 市场委员会（FOMC）的一致批准，官员们表示，他们计 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - Japan's monetary policy framework has undergone several structural changes since the introduction of the zero interest rate policy in February 1999, primarily due to prolonged deflation and economic stagnation[1] - The direct goal of the monetary policy framework from 2013 to 2023 was to address the long-term economic stagnation and chronic deflation that followed the bursting of the economic bubble in the early 1990s[2] - The introduction of the quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) policy in April 2013 aimed to double the monetary base within two years to stabilize inflation at 2%[2] Group 2: Key Policy Components - The QQE policy was complemented by the introduction of negative interest rates in January 2016 and the yield curve control (YCC) policy in September 2016[3] - The QQE policy led to a temporary increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate to 3.7% in 2014, but it fell back to around 0% due to declining global commodity prices and an increase in the consumption tax[2] - The negative interest rate policy aimed to lower nominal interest rates below the natural rate and alter overall inflation expectations, with excess reserves divided into three categories with different interest rates[3] Group 3: Economic Impact - Japan's natural rate of interest has been on a downward trend since the 1990s, contributing to weak demand and low corporate growth expectations[2] - The prolonged deflation led to a stagnation in the normal economic cycle, where price increases, corporate profits, wage growth, and demand expansion became disconnected[2] - The structural issues in Japan's economy resulted in a shift from a capital shortage to an excess savings situation among firms, leading to "balance sheet recession" and low potential GDP growth rates[2]

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and the recent actions of two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Leadership - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] Critique of Monetary Policy - Dudley has expressed criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework established in 2020, highlighting flaws and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] Defense of Powell's Position - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and recent actions by two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Group 1 - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] - Dudley acknowledges his criticisms of the Federal Reserve, including flaws in the 2020 monetary policy framework and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing a cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2][4]. Economic Conditions - Current economic uncertainty has decreased but remains high, with the Fed's language showing no significant changes from May [1][2]. - The market is increasingly concerned about the potential economic issues arising from prolonged high interest rates, especially in the context of complex global trade dynamics and tariff policies [2][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a flexible approach to future monetary policy, closely monitoring tariff policies and inflation data as key determinants [2][3]. - Recent economic data suggests a potential for rate cuts, with May's CPI showing a year-over-year increase of 2.4% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating moderate inflation pressures [2][4]. Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, but recent non-farm payroll data showed job additions below expectations, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2][3]. - The ADP report indicated the lowest job additions in two years for May, further highlighting labor market concerns [2]. Communication Strategy - The Fed's communication strategy reflects a tendency to maintain a hawkish tone while allowing for policy flexibility, particularly in uncertain macroeconomic conditions [3][4]. - Research indicates that central banks tend to adopt conditional and scenario-based communication during high uncertainty, which helps maintain market confidence and policy flexibility [3]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed may shift its focus from inflation control to growth support, especially if inflation expectations can be effectively managed [4][5]. - A potential transition to a more flexible inflation targeting framework could indicate an increased tolerance for inflation above 2%, suggesting greater policy flexibility [5]. - Projections indicate that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026, with an expected reduction of 75-100 basis points throughout 2025 [1][5].

Group 1 - The core focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework evaluation in 2025 includes summarizing lessons from the past five years, discussing improvements in communication methods, and assessing the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework [1][2][10] - The "Consensus Statement" established in 2012 set a 2% inflation target and has remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate [2][9] - The need for periodic updates to the monetary policy framework is highlighted, as economic structures evolve over time, necessitating adjustments in strategies, tools, and communication methods [2][3] Group 2 - The transition from "average inflation targeting" back to "traditional inflation targeting" is discussed, with the recognition that regular evaluations of economic structural changes are essential [3][6] - The experience of living in a "new normal" characterized by low rates and low inflation since the 2008 financial crisis is noted, with the federal funds rate being stuck at the zero lower bound for an extended period [4][5] - The importance of anchoring inflation expectations at an appropriate low level is emphasized, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining price stability while achieving full employment [9][10] Group 3 - The Fed plans to complete the review of the "Consensus Statement" revisions in the coming months, focusing on the 2020 updates and the latest economic understanding [10][11] - There is a consensus among participants regarding the expression of "employment shortfall," indicating a shift in focus from merely preventing inflation to assessing employment conditions [5][10] - The need for improved communication regarding predictions, uncertainties, and risks is acknowledged, with an emphasis on the importance of effective communication in complex economic environments [11]