2025年8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表主旨演讲，围绕当日同步发布的 最新版《关于长期目标与货币政策策略的声明》(以下简称《共识声明》)，系统阐述了2025年美联储货 币政策框架的演进情况。作为美联储货币政策的核心指导性文件，《共识声明》自2012年由时任美联储 主席伯南克主导制定以来，已历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订。 核心内容有哪些？ 底层逻辑是什么？ 对我国相关改革提供了哪些启示？ 中国农业银行金融市场部高级经济师邢炜近日撰文对上述问题进行了梳理和分析。 美联储货币政策框架的演进脉络：基于《共识声明》的几次关键调整 《共识声明》自2012年制定以来，历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订，形成了"确立框架-调 整框架-回归最初框架"的演进轨迹。2012年，《共识声明》首次确立，搭建通胀目标制及双重使命平衡 的基础框架；2020年，《共识声明》首次修订，引入平均通胀目标制和就业缺口规则应对有效利率下限 (ELB，核心是指政策利率下降到该水平后，继续降息无法有效刺激经济)约束；2025年，《共识声明》 第二次修订，放弃特殊规则回归平衡双重使命的初始逻辑 ...

Pimco全球经济顾问、美联储前副主席Richard Clarida在一份报告中说，美联储似乎将在近期下调政策利 率，不过会采取谨慎的态度。鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上备受期待的演讲没有让市场失望， 美联储推出修订后的货币政策框架也没有让美联储观察人士感到意外。从长期来看，美联储重申了其对 双重使命的承诺，同时只对其货币政策框架进行了细微的澄清。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走低，为期三天的杰克逊霍尔研讨会将于周四开始。现货黄金下跌0.2%，报每盎 司3,343.43美元。Kitco.com高级分析师Jim Wyckoff报告表示，预计美联储主席鲍威尔周五的讲话将是对 该央行货币政策框架的最新说明。他表示："鲍威尔的讲话可能会就美国联邦公开市场委员会在9月份降 息方面的支持力度为市场提供新的视角。"利率在更长时间内保持高位通常会削弱不计息黄金的吸引 力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and reform of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and economic conditions post-COVID-19, highlighting the need for reassessment and potential changes to better achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [1][21]. Group 1: Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework is established by the "Federal Reserve Act," focusing on dual goals of maximum employment and price stability, with significant autonomy in its design and implementation [2][3]. - The initial framework, released in January 2012, prioritized price stability, setting a long-term inflation target of 2% based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) [3][4]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Environment - Post-2012, the U.S. economy faced below-potential growth and signs of long-term stagnation, leading the Fed to lower its long-term GDP growth forecast from 2.5% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2016 [4]. - The overall interest rate trend declined, with the Fed reducing its estimate of the neutral federal funds rate from 4.25% to 2.5%, limiting its ability to lower rates during economic downturns [4][5]. Group 3: Reassessment and Reform of the Framework - In 2019, the Fed initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, which was further influenced by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [6][7]. - Key adjustments included redefining the 2% inflation target as a flexible average inflation target (FAIT) and shifting focus from "deviating" from maximum employment to addressing gaps below maximum employment [7][8]. Group 4: Limitations of the Current Framework - The current framework allows for a 2% inflation target to be achieved under asymmetric conditions, but the assumption that inflation below 2% is the new normal has proven incorrect [10]. - The framework's reliance on past employment conditions to adjust policy may lead to delays in response, as seen in the Fed's decision-making during periods of rising inflation [13][14]. Group 5: Impact of the Framework on Recent Inflation - The Fed's historically accommodative monetary policy, including lowering rates to 0-0.25% and implementing quantitative easing, contributed to significant inflation increases post-pandemic [15][16]. - The transition from high unemployment and low inflation to low unemployment and high inflation highlighted the inadequacies of the current framework, as the Fed maintained low rates despite rising inflation [16][17]. Group 6: Future Prospects for Monetary Policy Framework Reform - The limitations of the current framework have raised concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. monetary policy and the stability of the bond market, prompting legislative scrutiny and potential reforms [21][22]. - The establishment of a congressional working group indicates a bipartisan interest in reassessing the Fed's dual mandate and decision-making processes, which may lead to significant changes in the monetary policy framework [23][24].