说起央行把通胀目标定在2%，很多人可能会觉得这数字挺随意，就跟买东西讨价还价最后定个整数似的。但其实这背后有不少实打实的经济学道理和历史 教训。咱们从头说起，这个目标最早不是从哪个大经济学家论文里蹦出来的，而是从新西兰这么个小国家开始的。 高通胀像现在2022-2023年那会儿，好多国家通胀破8%，老百姓买东西贵了，工资追不上，穷人更穷。企业成本涨，投资缩水，经济乱套。但零通胀或通缩 更可怕。 那是上世纪80年代末，新西兰经济正闹腾得厉害，高通胀、高失业、高赤字，三高齐全。平均通胀率常年超10%，老百姓日子过得提心吊胆，企业也规划不 了长远。1984年政府换届后，开始大刀阔斧改革，放松管制、卖国有企业啥的，目的就是稳住经济。 到了1989年，新西兰通过了储备银行法案，这法案简单粗暴，就一条核心：央行唯一任务是保持价格稳定。没多久，1990年3月，时任财政部长和央行行长 唐·布拉什签了第一份政策目标协议，把通胀定在0%到2%区间。 为什么是这个范围？据布拉什后来回忆，当时也没啥高深的模型，就是觉得零通胀太冒险，容易滑到通缩去，得留点缓冲。结果这事儿成了全球央行政策的 开山鼻祖。 执行起来可没那么轻松，央行猛加息 ...

2025年8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表主旨演讲，围绕当日同步发布的 最新版《关于长期目标与货币政策策略的声明》(以下简称《共识声明》)，系统阐述了2025年美联储货 币政策框架的演进情况。作为美联储货币政策的核心指导性文件，《共识声明》自2012年由时任美联储 主席伯南克主导制定以来，已历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订。 核心内容有哪些？ 底层逻辑是什么？ 对我国相关改革提供了哪些启示？ 中国农业银行金融市场部高级经济师邢炜近日撰文对上述问题进行了梳理和分析。 美联储货币政策框架的演进脉络：基于《共识声明》的几次关键调整 《共识声明》自2012年制定以来，历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订，形成了"确立框架-调 整框架-回归最初框架"的演进轨迹。2012年，《共识声明》首次确立，搭建通胀目标制及双重使命平衡 的基础框架；2020年，《共识声明》首次修订，引入平均通胀目标制和就业缺口规则应对有效利率下限 (ELB，核心是指政策利率下降到该水平后，继续降息无法有效刺激经济)约束；2025年，《共识声明》 第二次修订，放弃特殊规则回归平衡双重使命的初始逻辑 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].

（原标题：加纳出台新的外汇管理体制） 据《城市新闻室》11月12日报道，加纳央行推出了一项新的外汇操作框架，旨在提高透明度，增强 市场信心，并确保该国外汇市场的稳定。新框架旨在明确指导央行外汇干预的目标、原则和操作流程。 它将采取基于规则的"约束下的自由裁量权"方法，确保干预措施遵循透明的、预先公布的标准，而不是 临时行动。 加纳央行周二发表声明指出，此举强化了其在通胀目标制下对宏观经济稳定的承诺，并维持了灵活 的、市场决定的汇率制度。根据该框架，加纳央行的外汇业务将追求三大核心目标： 1. 储备积累——建立强大的缓冲机制，抵御外部风险； 2. 波动性管理——在不固定汇率的前提下，降低短期过度波动； 3. 市场中性中介——以透明的方式引导外汇流入，包括来自黄金购买计划和出口缴款要求的资金， 使其流入市场，且不影响货币走势。 该框架的一大特点是其基于规则、透明的市场操作方式。加纳央行将对外汇交易进行竞争性、浮动 利率、固定金额的拍卖，以确保效率和公平性。拍卖金额将提前公布，结果将于当日发布。 为进一步加强问责制，中央银行将在每月结束后五个工作日内公布汇总的月度外汇操作数据，并区 分其各项操作目标。此举有望使市场 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's rate cut pace, arguing that the U.S. does not face inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift in policy focus, prioritizing employment concerns over inflation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises [2] - The Great Depression in 1929 highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that expanded its role in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of stabilizing prices and promoting maximum employment was formalized in the 1977 Federal Reserve Reform Act [3] Group 3 - The 1970s stagflation challenged the prevailing economic theories, leading to a new focus on both inflation and employment [3] - Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker implemented aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which solidified the Fed's dual mandate in practice [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained more flexible [4][5] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for its short-term focus, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the risks of the Fed's low-interest rate policies and lack of regulatory oversight [6] - The complexity of the current economic landscape poses significant challenges for the Fed in assessing market conditions and risks [6][7] Group 5 - Chairman Powell acknowledged the current economic challenges, highlighting the dual risks of weak employment and rising inflation [7] - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in balancing immediate issues with long-term risks, complicating its policy decisions [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's slow and insufficient rate cuts, arguing that "there is no inflation" in the U.S. [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a policy shift by prioritizing employment concerns over inflation, reflecting a broader consensus among the government and investors on evaluating Fed policies through inflation and employment metrics [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises, evolving its role over time [2] - The 1929 Great Depression highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that enhanced its authority in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of "stable prices" and "full employment" was formally established in 1977, marking a significant shift in U.S. economic policy thinking [3][4] Group 3 - Paul Volcker's tenure as Fed Chairman began in 1979 with inflation at 13%, leading to aggressive interest rate hikes that ultimately curbed inflation but caused a deep recession [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained flexible, allowing for a clearer framework for monetary policy [4] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for focusing too much on short-term economic fluctuations, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the Fed's failures in recognizing systemic risks, as it relied on the belief in market self-correction [5][6] - Current economic complexities, including globalization and technological changes, present significant challenges for the Fed in balancing employment and inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Since the late 1990s, Japan's economy has been trapped in a "two-decade deflation," leading the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to become a "laboratory" for cutting-edge monetary policy, with "manufacturing inflation" becoming a priority for its monetary policy [1][7]. Group 1: Evolution of BOJ's Policy Framework - The BOJ's monetary policy framework has evolved through three main stages from 1955 to the present, reflecting changes in economic conditions and financial markets [2][8]. - From 1955 to 1970, the BOJ employed a quantity-based monetary policy framework characterized by strong regulation, including capital controls and fixed exchange rates [2][9]. - The period from 1971 to 1990 saw a transition towards financial liberalization and a shift from quantity-based to price-based frameworks, although quantity remained dominant [15][22]. - Since 1991, the BOJ has engaged in unconventional policy experiments, moving towards a long-term easing cycle, particularly after the asset bubble burst [28][35]. Group 2: Transition from Quantitative Easing to Comprehensive Monetary Easing - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 prompted the BOJ to implement a zero interest rate policy, which was later reversed incorrectly before the internet bubble burst [3][44]. - In March 2001, the BOJ initiated a quantitative easing policy (QEP) with a focus on increasing reserve balances and committing to maintain the policy until core CPI stabilized above 0% [3][81]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the BOJ adopted a comprehensive monetary easing (CME) approach, expanding its asset purchases and adjusting its policy tools to address ongoing economic challenges [3][35]. Group 3: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing - Under Governor Kuroda's leadership from 2013, the BOJ's monetary policy can be divided into three phases, starting with the introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) [4][36]. - The first phase emphasized increasing base money through long-term government bond purchases, while the second phase introduced negative interest rates to combat deflation [4][36]. - The third phase involved Yield Curve Control (YCC), where the BOJ maintained flexibility in its bond purchases while targeting specific yield levels [4][36]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the continued appreciation of the yen have influenced the BOJ's policy decisions and economic outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has fully initiated the normalization process of its unconventional monetary policy, marking the third such attempt in this century, with significant implications for interest rates, the yen exchange rate, and the economy [2][8]. Group 1: Evolution and Mechanism of BOJ's Unconventional Policies - Since the implementation of the zero interest rate policy in 1999, the BOJ has led the world in unconventional monetary policy experiments, evolving through three dimensions: interest rates, quantity, and quality [2][8]. - The transition from the zero interest rate policy to quantitative easing (QEP) in 2001 included all three dimensions, with a focus on term premiums initially, and later on risk premiums [2][8]. - The QQE+ policy introduced in 2013 further expanded these dimensions, aiming to lower nominal interest rates and improve financial conditions to support economic recovery [2][12]. Group 2: Effectiveness Assessment of BOJ's Policies - The QQE+ policy has significantly improved Japan's financial conditions, with estimates showing a reduction of approximately 100 basis points in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield since its implementation [3][15]. - Quantitative research indicates that without the QQE+ policy, Japan's real GDP would have been 0.9-1.3 percentage points lower, and core-core CPI inflation would have been 0.6-0.7 percentage points lower [3][51]. - The policy has helped Japan escape the "deflation trap," with a notable decline in loan rates and corporate bond financing rates, alongside a depreciation of the yen [3][25][33]. Group 3: Normalization of Unconventional Policies - The BOJ has officially started the normalization process, with the first step being the cancellation of negative interest rates and the abandonment of the QQE+YCC framework in March 2024 [4][66]. - The BOJ plans to gradually reduce its bond purchases, aiming for a target of approximately 30 trillion yen by early 2026, while also adjusting its asset purchase strategies to respond to rising long-term interest rates [5][66]. - The central bank's future interest rate targets are estimated to be between 1% and 1.5%, aligning with its 2% inflation goal [5][66].

Group 1 - Hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards China [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief strategist for China believes the recent A-share rally is driven by improved liquidity, with funds moving from bonds and deposits to the stock market [1] - HSBC has raised its year-end target for the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points, citing abundant domestic liquidity and a potential 5% to 7% upside [1] Group 2 - Barclays and Societe Generale predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's shift in tone regarding employment risks [2] - Bank of America suggests that if the dollar weakens and the UK economy improves, the British pound could strengthen, with a forecast of GBP/USD reaching 1.45 in Q4 [2] Group 3 - Canadian dollar is under pressure due to trade uncertainties and expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, with the currency hitting a three-month low [3] - Citigroup expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, maintaining confidence in its long-term predictions [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as Powell's comments align with their expectations [6] - China International Capital Corporation estimates that potential funds from household deposits entering the market could range from 5 to 7 trillion yuan [6] Group 5 - Huatai Securities indicates that the current economic conditions suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with two additional cuts likely in Q4 [7] - China Merchants Macro reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely bottomed out in June-July, with expectations for a rebound driven by global inventory cycles and oil prices [8] Group 6 - China Merchants Strategy recommends focusing on the entire rare earth sector, especially smaller companies, following new regulations that allow more firms to obtain mining quotas [9] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and performance [10] Group 7 - Huatai Securities maintains that coal prices are likely to remain supported due to high demand and supply constraints, suggesting a focus on companies with stable cash flows and high dividends [8] - Guotai Junan expects the Asian metallurgical coal market to continue recovering in Q3 2025, supported by inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in China [9] Group 8 - China Merchants Macro identifies September as a potential observation window for the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lead to a comprehensive revaluation of Chinese assets [17][18] - The report suggests that if the yuan returns to the 6 range, it would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equities, particularly in consumer sectors [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the gold industry stocks, particularly driven by the recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts and a flexible inflation targeting framework [2][3] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (up 8.56%), Hunan Silver (up 7.14%), and Zijin Mining (up 5.54%) [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and the prevailing economic conditions are seen as supportive factors for gold prices, with analysts suggesting that the market may experience upward momentum rather than downward [2] Group 2 - The Northeast Securities analysis indicates that low volatility and economic weakness combined with rising inflation and potential rate cuts create a favorable environment for gold prices to rise [2] - The article emphasizes that the largest gold stock ETF (517520) serves as an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the gold sector, allowing them to capture the benefits of rising gold prices and share in the growth of quality gold mining companies [3] - The investment in the Yongying Gold Stock ETF and its linked funds (A class: 020411 / C class: 020412) is presented as a strategy to effectively diversify individual stock risks while participating in the overall gold industry [3]