在达到目标并维持信誉之前，重新'锚定'(通胀预期)是非常困难的，"贝森特表示。他也承认了家庭对负 担能力的担忧——这种焦虑在11月举行的非大选年选举中显现，并导致了共和党的失利。 这位财政部长表示，"我们理解美国民众正在承受痛苦。"物价水平"已经变得非常高"，他将此归咎于拜 登政府。他认为，通胀现在"开始回落"，部分原因在于租金的下降——而他认为，租金的上涨是由无证 移民的激增所驱动的。 今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于71.76一线上方，今日开盘于71.46美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报72.10美元/盎司，上涨0.91%，最高触及72.70美元/盎司，最低下探71.31美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特(Scott Bessent)支持这样一种观点：一旦美国可持续地将物价涨幅控制回2% 的水平，就应重新考虑美联储的2%通胀目标。" 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银价格在早盘中交易中继续上涨，持续刷新历史新高，主看涨趋势在短期内占据主导地位，交易 伴随着支撑性的小趋势线，且由于交易高于EMA50，正压持续存在，同时相对 ...

2025年12月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高 | 2 | | 铜：美元持续回落，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：外盘突破前高，上行动能充足 | 13 | | 钯：跟随铂继续上行 | 13 | | 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 | 15 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 黄金：通胀温和回落 白银：再创新高 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、中共中央总书记对央企工作作出重要指示强调，充分认识职责使命 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has injected approximately $10 billion into the foreign exchange market since January 2025 to stabilize the cedi exchange rate, part of a broader strategy to meet dollar demand rather than solely defending the cedi [1] - The funding for this intervention comes from unexpected gains from the domestic gold purchasing program, which has not utilized the central bank's foreign exchange reserves [1] - As of December 2024, Ghana's international reserves stood at $9.1 billion, increasing to $11.4 billion by October 2025, with projections suggesting reserves may exceed $12 billion by year-end [2] - The cedi appreciated by 13.9% against the dollar by the end of October 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 32.2% [2] - The BoG has approved a new foreign exchange business framework aimed at guiding its foreign exchange operations, reinforcing its commitment to macroeconomic stability under an inflation-targeting regime [2] - The new framework aims to support reserve accumulation, reduce excessive short-term volatility in the foreign exchange market, and facilitate market-neutral foreign exchange flows [2][3] - Future foreign exchange interventions will follow a "discretionary under structured constraints" approach, ensuring that interventions do not target specific exchange rate levels but address market failures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a 2% inflation target by central banks is rooted in historical economic lessons and practical considerations, originating from New Zealand's experience in the late 1980s [2][4][20] Group 1: Historical Context - New Zealand faced severe economic issues in the 1980s, including high inflation exceeding 10%, leading to significant reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy [2][4] - The Reserve Bank Act of 1989 mandated that the central bank's sole focus was to maintain price stability, resulting in the first inflation target of 0% to 2% [4][6] - This model inspired other countries, with Canada, the UK, and the European Central Bank adopting similar targets in subsequent years [6][10] Group 2: Economic Rationale - A 2% inflation target serves as a buffer against deflation, allowing for more flexible monetary policy, as nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero [8][10] - The target helps manage nominal rigidity, particularly in wages, allowing for real wage adjustments without nominal cuts [10][20] - It also accounts for measurement biases in consumer price indices, which often overstate inflation, making a 2% target effectively closer to a 1% real inflation rate [10][20] Group 3: Global Adoption and Variations - Over 40 central banks globally have adopted similar inflation frameworks, with variations based on local economic conditions, such as China's flexible approach and India's target of 4% ± 2% [6][13][20] - The 2% target has proven effective in stabilizing economies, as seen in the U.S. and Japan, where it helped navigate through economic downturns [11][17] Group 4: Current Debates and Future Considerations - Recent discussions among economists suggest reevaluating the 2% target due to changing global dynamics, including supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices [15][20] - Some propose increasing the target to 3% or 4% to provide more policy space, while others caution against the risks of higher inflation impacting lower-income populations [15][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions in 2020 and 2025, reflecting responses to changing economic conditions and challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Evolution of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" has undergone two major revisions since its inception: the first in 2020 introduced an average inflation targeting and employment gap rules, while the second in 2025 reverted to a more balanced dual mandate approach [2][3]. - The 2025 update removed the emphasis on the effective lower bound (ELB) as a defining feature of the economic landscape and abandoned the average inflation targeting strategy, returning to a traditional symmetric inflation target [3][4]. Group 2: Underlying Logic of the Framework - The evolution of the Federal Reserve's framework is a dynamic response to the primary economic contradictions of specific stages, adapting to the economic environment post-2008 financial crisis and the subsequent low-growth, low-inflation context [4]. - The 2025 revision is a response to the post-pandemic economic landscape, characterized by global supply chain disruptions and structural labor market shortages, indicating a shift away from the low-inflation era [4]. Group 3: Short-term vs Long-term Policy Divergence - The revised framework shows a clear divergence in the Federal Reserve's short-term and long-term policy orientations, balancing risks associated with economic cycles [4]. - Long-term strategies focus on normalizing policy tools and anchoring inflation at a 2% target, while short-term strategies prioritize employment stability and risk management [4]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Policy - The evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework offers valuable insights for domestic reforms, emphasizing the need for continuous optimization of monetary policy to align with the dynamic nature of the real economy [5][6]. - It highlights the importance of forward-looking approaches in policy design, avoiding linear extrapolation from past data, and ensuring adaptability to structural changes in the economy [6]. - The framework should be tailored to local economic characteristics, considering factors such as development stage, economic structure, and financial market maturity [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana has introduced a new foreign exchange operation framework aimed at enhancing transparency, boosting market confidence, and ensuring stability in the foreign exchange market [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections New Framework Objectives - The new framework outlines three core objectives for the Bank of Ghana's foreign exchange operations: 1. Reserve accumulation to build a strong buffer against external risks 2. Volatility management to reduce excessive short-term fluctuations without fixing the exchange rate 3. Market-neutral mediation to transparently guide foreign exchange inflows, including funds from gold purchase programs and export payment requirements, without affecting currency trends [2] Operational Characteristics - The framework will employ a rules-based, transparent market operation approach, including competitive, floating-rate, fixed-amount auctions for foreign exchange transactions to ensure efficiency and fairness - Auction amounts will be announced in advance, and results will be published on the same day [2] Accountability and Transparency - To enhance accountability, the central bank will publish a summary of monthly foreign exchange operation data within five working days after the end of each month, detailing the objectives of various operations - This initiative is expected to provide market participants and the public with clearer insights into the Bank of Ghana's decision-making, thereby boosting confidence in the foreign exchange market [3] Context and Performance - The introduction of the new framework coincides with the Ghanaian cedi becoming one of the best-performing currencies in sub-Saharan Africa, attributed to prudent policy management and sustained foreign exchange inflows [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's rate cut pace, arguing that the U.S. does not face inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a shift in policy focus, prioritizing employment concerns over inflation [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises [2] - The Great Depression in 1929 highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that expanded its role in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of stabilizing prices and promoting maximum employment was formalized in the 1977 Federal Reserve Reform Act [3] Group 3 - The 1970s stagflation challenged the prevailing economic theories, leading to a new focus on both inflation and employment [3] - Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker implemented aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which solidified the Fed's dual mandate in practice [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained more flexible [4][5] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for its short-term focus, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the risks of the Fed's low-interest rate policies and lack of regulatory oversight [6] - The complexity of the current economic landscape poses significant challenges for the Fed in assessing market conditions and risks [6][7] Group 5 - Chairman Powell acknowledged the current economic challenges, highlighting the dual risks of weak employment and rising inflation [7] - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in balancing immediate issues with long-term risks, complicating its policy decisions [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's slow and insufficient rate cuts, arguing that "there is no inflation" in the U.S. [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a policy shift by prioritizing employment concerns over inflation, reflecting a broader consensus among the government and investors on evaluating Fed policies through inflation and employment metrics [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to provide financial support to the banking system and prevent systemic crises, evolving its role over time [2] - The 1929 Great Depression highlighted the limitations of the Fed, leading to reforms that enhanced its authority in monetary and credit regulation [2] - The dual mandate of "stable prices" and "full employment" was formally established in 1977, marking a significant shift in U.S. economic policy thinking [3][4] Group 3 - Paul Volcker's tenure as Fed Chairman began in 1979 with inflation at 13%, leading to aggressive interest rate hikes that ultimately curbed inflation but caused a deep recession [4] - The Fed adopted an inflation target of 2% in the 1990s, while employment targets remained flexible, allowing for a clearer framework for monetary policy [4] Group 4 - The dual mandate framework has been criticized for focusing too much on short-term economic fluctuations, neglecting structural economic issues [5] - The 2008 financial crisis exposed the Fed's failures in recognizing systemic risks, as it relied on the belief in market self-correction [5][6] - Current economic complexities, including globalization and technological changes, present significant challenges for the Fed in balancing employment and inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Since the late 1990s, Japan's economy has been trapped in a "two-decade deflation," leading the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to become a "laboratory" for cutting-edge monetary policy, with "manufacturing inflation" becoming a priority for its monetary policy [1][7]. Group 1: Evolution of BOJ's Policy Framework - The BOJ's monetary policy framework has evolved through three main stages from 1955 to the present, reflecting changes in economic conditions and financial markets [2][8]. - From 1955 to 1970, the BOJ employed a quantity-based monetary policy framework characterized by strong regulation, including capital controls and fixed exchange rates [2][9]. - The period from 1971 to 1990 saw a transition towards financial liberalization and a shift from quantity-based to price-based frameworks, although quantity remained dominant [15][22]. - Since 1991, the BOJ has engaged in unconventional policy experiments, moving towards a long-term easing cycle, particularly after the asset bubble burst [28][35]. Group 2: Transition from Quantitative Easing to Comprehensive Monetary Easing - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 prompted the BOJ to implement a zero interest rate policy, which was later reversed incorrectly before the internet bubble burst [3][44]. - In March 2001, the BOJ initiated a quantitative easing policy (QEP) with a focus on increasing reserve balances and committing to maintain the policy until core CPI stabilized above 0% [3][81]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the BOJ adopted a comprehensive monetary easing (CME) approach, expanding its asset purchases and adjusting its policy tools to address ongoing economic challenges [3][35]. Group 3: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing - Under Governor Kuroda's leadership from 2013, the BOJ's monetary policy can be divided into three phases, starting with the introduction of Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) [4][36]. - The first phase emphasized increasing base money through long-term government bond purchases, while the second phase introduced negative interest rates to combat deflation [4][36]. - The third phase involved Yield Curve Control (YCC), where the BOJ maintained flexibility in its bond purchases while targeting specific yield levels [4][36]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the continued appreciation of the yen have influenced the BOJ's policy decisions and economic outlook [5].