9月22日，这位Universa Investments的掌门人近日在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，他预见美股在短期内可能继续走高， 标普500指数或将"相当快地"触及 8000点 ，这意味着较当前水平有约20%的上涨空间。Spitznagel指出，美联储降息等因素为市场进一步上行创造了理想条件。 美国"黑天鹅"基金经理Mark Spitznagel认为，当前美国的市场环境类似于"咆哮的二十年代"即将终结时的狂热，美股将迎来一轮大幅上涨，但一场剧烈的调整 也正在酝酿，随后可能迎来自1929年以来最严重的一次崩盘。 然而，他警告称，这轮上涨将是灾难的前奏。 Spitznagel将当前的市场状况与1929年进行了比较，认为多年来联邦政府对市场和经济的反复干预，导致风险像 干燥的引火物一样不断累积，最终可能引发一场猛烈的"火焰风暴"。 Spitznagel是《黑天鹅》作者Nassim Nicholas Taleb的得意门生，他的对冲基金以其独特的尾部风险对冲策略而著称，该策略并非预测市场时点，而是在市场 乐观、对冲成本低廉时买入保护。这种策略使其在雷曼兄弟破产、2015年"闪电崩盘"以及新冠疫情引发的市场熔断中为客 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国利率波动率骤降，正让华尔街一种热门的金融市场动荡对冲策略陷入困境。 近年来，各大银行一直在开发并销售"保护性量化投资策略（QIS）"，这类策略与市场对利率波动的长期预期挂 钩。此类产品本质是"系统性交易组合"，以互换合约形式售予对冲基金、养老金等机构，为其抵御重大经济风险提 供"保险"。 多数QIS策略围绕"10年/20年期互换期权"（10-year/20-year swaptions）构建——这类10年期期权允许投资者签订20 年期利率互换合约。它们既是应对利率波动的保护工具，也能反映市场对未来波动率的预期。 彭博汇编数据显示，当前各类资产的波动幅度普遍收窄，上述互换期权所隐含的波动率正迎来2023年11月以来的最 大单月跌幅。LumRisk的数据显示，这意味着大量旨在从合约波动率飙升中获利的QIS策略，本月已录得2.6%的平 均亏损。 长端利率波动率近期暴跌 表面看这一亏损幅度不大，但在利率交易与QIS领域已是显著。巴克莱集团策略师表示，波动率骤降正将原本的防 御性头寸转化为亏损来源，并将这种"预期波动率暴跌"现象描述为"波动性末日（volma ...

Core Viewpoint - Mark Spitznagel, known as the "crash hunter," warns that the current market resembles the early stages of 1929, suggesting a potential significant downturn after a period of optimism [3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Spitznagel believes the current bull market may face severe consequences due to repeated government interventions, likening it to a forest fire that has been quickly extinguished, leading to an accumulation of dry branches [3] - He predicts that the S&P 500 index could soon reach 8000 points, approximately 20% higher than its opening on Monday [3] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index often rises significantly before a bear market, with an average annual return of 26% in the 12 months leading up to bear markets since 1980 [4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Institutional investors' exposure to stocks has reached its highest level since November 2007, while American households' stock allocation has surpassed levels seen during the internet bubble [5][6] - The risk premium required for investment-grade bonds has fallen to its lowest level since 1998, indicating a shift away from caution among investors [6] - Spitznagel emphasizes that the greatest risk for investors is not the market itself, but their own behavior, suggesting that many fail to maintain a long-term perspective [7] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Spitznagel advocates for purchasing tail-risk protection tools, such as out-of-the-money put options, which may incur losses most of the time but can yield substantial returns during extreme market downturns [6] - He advises retail investors against frequently adjusting their portfolios in response to panic headlines, as this approach can be costly [7]