Core Viewpoint - Urea futures experienced a slight increase of 0.62%, with the main contract closing at 1779.00 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the market despite current challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The main urea futures contract reached a peak of 1782.00 yuan during trading, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - Urea prices from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are reported between 1680-1720 yuan per ton, with limited low-price transactions due to a cold market atmosphere [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply remains stable with no significant production halts planned, and daily production is around 200,000 tons [2]. - Agricultural demand is improving, with a notable increase in compound fertilizer factory operations and inventory levels, although actual purchasing remains limited [2][3]. - Short-term fluctuations in the UR2605 contract are expected to remain within the 1750-1800 yuan range, influenced by stable production and limited agricultural demand during the traditional off-season [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels have decreased to below one million tons, with expectations of continued inventory reduction as pre-holiday purchasing increases [2]. - The recovery of some production facilities is anticipated to support domestic urea output, although the overall impact on production levels is expected to be limited [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has more low - price transactions, demand has improved, and the futures price has rebounded. However, the rebound is limited due to sufficient upstream supply [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The spot price continued to weaken, but low - price transactions in the market were good, and some factories stopped selling [1][2][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the historical average. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired plants, the daily production of upstream plants will fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal cost has slowed down, and downstream demand needs to be verified [1] - The operating load of compound fertilizer factories has increased. After the end of environmental inspections last week, enterprise equipment gradually resumed production, and some equipment in Northeast China started operation. Some equipment's operating load has reached a relatively high level [1] - Due to increased downstream terminal purchasing speed and reserve demand, inventories have been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decrease this week [1][8] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,630 yuan/ton, closed at 1,654 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The trading volume was 229,335 lots (- 4,980 lots). Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 5,923 lots and the short position increased by 1,272 lots [2] - **Spot**: The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,570 to 1,620 yuan/ton. Low - end prices have better transactions, while high - end prices have a general trading atmosphere [1][4] - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 24 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% [8] - **Supply**: On November 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 205,900 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.85% [9] - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 28, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.65 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.6% [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the urea market have improved, with continuous inventory reduction despite high daily production, and the futures price continues to rebound. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and closed lower, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading sentiment has improved recently, with good orders received by factories and firm spot prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5]. - The supply side remains loose, with previously shut - down plants resuming production, and the output is expected to continue to increase. The price of coal raw materials continues to rise, but the increase is gradually narrowing [1]. - The operating load of compound fertilizer plants decreased this week due to environmental inspections in North China. After the inspections end, the operation will improve. The raw material prices have increased significantly, driving up the cost. Currently, it is in the late stage of the wheat fertilizer season, and the winter storage policy for compound fertilizers is advancing. The finished product inventory of factories is in the digestion stage of autumn fertilizers [1]. - Downstream procurement has increased. Although the price has been rising, the inventory has continued to decline this week, but the decline rate has narrowed compared with the previous period. In October 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.2 million tons, and from January to October 2025, it was about 4.01 million tons, a significant increase of about 3.754 million tons compared with 256,000 tons in the same period of 2025 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1665 yuan/ton, closed at 1663 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.06%. The trading volume was 249,090 lots, a decrease of 1817 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 669 lots, and short positions decreased by 1566 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 477 lots, GF Futures had a net long position of + 375 lots, CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 1550 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1019 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The trading sentiment in the spot market has improved, with good orders received by factories and firm prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 19, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.91% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 21, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% [11].