南华期货尿素产业周报 ——偏弱震荡 2025/11/02 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 跟随宏观阶段性利多出尽，尿素弱势回落。从现货角度来看多地雨水暂停，秋收、秋播陆续推进，农业尿 素走货适当增加，尿素企业出货适当好转,虽然多数仅维持产销弱平衡，但相较于前期的惨淡已经有较大好 转。内需方面，内需偏弱是目前价格下跌的主要矛盾，复合肥及工业需求均较为疲软，对价格驱动同样有限 因此中期趋势偏弱。在期货高升水的格局下，期现贸易商采购积极性较强。因此虽然前期宏观与产业共振带 动期货反弹，但后期来看，在出口配额消失的背景下，尿素仍面临较大压力。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 sou ...

——现货磨底 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响尿素走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：一是季节性的需求淡季，二是出口预期的结束。我们认为尿 素或维持震荡走势。我们可以看到，近期尿素价格走势和现货情况呈现了高度的相关性，后期需要关注现货 成交情况。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 source： 南华研究,同花顺 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 source： 南华研究 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 南华期货尿素产业周报 * 远端交易预期 截止本周国内尿素日产20.01万吨，下周潞安大颗粒、赤天化装置陆续恢复，金象装置检修，天泽检修计划或 有推迟，预计下周国内尿素日产量继续小幅提 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Urea futures opened low and moved high with an upward trend today. Spot prices have been declining since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with increased orders. In terms of fundamentals, Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the production is expected to decline slightly. After the weekend price - cuts, the trading became smooth, and the futures turning positive stimulated downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing demand has ended, and industrial purchases are the main downstream demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to keep rising this month, increasing the demand for urea. Currently, domestic demand is insufficient, but there are expectations of improved industrial demand. The inventory de - stocking has reached an inflection point and started to accumulate last week. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and future market trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories and export conditions. The 09 contract is approaching delivery with limited upward and downward space [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high today. Spot prices dropped since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were successful with more orders received. Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan's long - cycle shutdown may lead to a slight production decline. After the weekend price - cuts, trading became smooth, and the futures' rise spurred downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing is over, and industrial purchases are dominant. The compound fertilizer factories' operating rate is rising and expected to continue, increasing urea demand. There are expectations of improved industrial demand despite current insufficient domestic demand. Inventory started to accumulate last week, and the market is volatile. The 09 contract has limited space as it nears delivery [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1714 yuan/ton, closed at 1733 yuan/ton with a 1.11% increase, and the trading volume was 142200 lots (- 489 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 945 lots and short positions increased by 1061 lots. For example, Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 1002 lots, while Guangfa Futures' decreased by 720 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 2570 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' decreased by 596 lots [2] Spot - Spot prices have been falling since the weekend. Upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with more orders. The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable but weak, and the futures closing price slightly declined. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 27 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On August 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 187,600 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12] Warehouse Receipts - On August 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]