Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a weak and stable state, mainly due to the game between downstream holiday shutdown and upstream holiday order absorption. Before the Spring Festival, it will mainly maintain a weak and stable state. After the Spring Festival, as it gradually enters the peak farming season, the downstream demand for urea will reach the peak of the year. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved high today, with a decline at the end of the session. The market is mainly stable, and holiday orders have not been fully filled. The ex - factory quotes for small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. The fundamentals are stable, with factories mainly fulfilling previous pending orders. The daily output has reached 210,000 tons, with few shutdown plans and many restart plans on the agenda. If there is no positive news, the spot is expected to reduce prices to attract orders. [1][3] - The compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, but the increase is limited before the holiday. The inventory data continues to decrease, mainly due to agricultural pick - up. It is expected that inventory will be depleted before the Spring Festival, and there will be an increase during the holiday. [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1775 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, and closed down at the end of the session, finally closing at 1776 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.17%. The trading volume was 221,626 lots (-1,184 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 578 lots, and short positions decreased by 875 lots. [2] - On February 6, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, an increase of 25 compared to the previous trading day. [2] Spot - The market is mainly stable today, and holiday orders have not been fully filled. The ex - factory quotes for small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. [1][3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis has strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract is -16 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton). [6] Supply - On February 6, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210,000 tons, the same as yesterday, with an operating rate of 85.26%. [7] Inventory and Orders - As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. The pre - sale order days were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 33.84%. [12] Downstream - From January 30 to February 6, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to last week. The average weekly production capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points compared to last week. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The current supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows that agricultural demand is mainly sporadic purchases, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise, which will increase the demand for urea in the future. However, the current market sentiment is low, and factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. The inventory has started to decline, and the anti - involution measures in the coal market support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is generally on the sidelines. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited due to the potential increase in industrial demand [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly in summer. Agricultural demand is sporadic, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise. The inventory has started to decline, and the coal market's anti - involution measures support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is cautious. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1,749 yuan/ton, closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume decreased by 7,152 lots to 115,300 lots. Among the top 20 institutional positions, the long - position decreased by 4,077 lots, and the short - position decreased by 5,702 lots. Some institutions increased or decreased their net long or short positions. Spot: The spot market sentiment cooled, and prices stabilized. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][5] Basis and Supply - Demand Data - Basis: Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the September contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On August 7, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.62%. Demand: From August 1 to August 7, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the previous week, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [9][10][14] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]