资料来源： Wind、钢联、隆众石化、海证期货研究所 储备需求支撑，尿素期价呈现较强抗跌性 2 ——尿素周度行情分析 海证期货研究所 2025年11月21日 现货市场价格走势 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2024-11-21 2025-02-21 2025-05-21 2025-08-21 东北地区 山西地区 河北地区 河南地区 山东地区 江苏地区 安徽地区 福建地区 1 储备需求支撑，尿素期价呈现较强抗跌性 01合约期货价格走势 ➢ 本周尿素主力01合约震荡上扬，盘面价格呈现较强抗跌性。截止周四收盘UR2601合约报收于1665元/吨。 尿素01合约山东地区基差情况 尿素01&05价差走势情况 ➢ 现货市场：本周尿素现货市场各地区价格小幅上调，东北集中采购带动国内尿素交投有所好转。受此影响工厂订 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2301合约 2401合约 2501合约 2601合约 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 05-12 06-11 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]

【冠通期货研究报告】 温和上涨 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 24 日 手。其中，宏源期货净多单+691 手、中泰期货净多单+779 手；国泰君安净空单 +2256 手，中信期货净空单-4124 手。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开高走，日内偏强。期货连续偏红，市场跟涨购买心理明显， 市场交投情绪尚可。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1520-1560 元/吨，价格涨幅多在 10-20 元/吨，河北工厂报价仍偏高端。基本面 来看，日产趋势小幅减少，但后续依旧有装置复产及新装置的投产，天然气限气 前，日产暂时不会大幅缩减，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端煤炭价格 走强，天然气原料企业连续亏损，中原大化已因亏损问题而检修停车，即将进入 供暖季节，预计天然气企业开工后续成下降趋势。需求端，复合肥工厂本期增加 开工负荷，环比提升 3.53%附近，同比去年偏低 2.03%，且成品库存依然在持续 去化阶段，东北地 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, prices showed a downward trend, and the weather affected downstream demand, resulting in a weak spot market, weak demand, and falling prices dragging down futures prices. Currently, the futures price has reached a new low, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of the spot market [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the market opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline. During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton. Upstream factories had many overhauls during the holiday, and the daily output slightly decreased but remained above 190,000 tons. Rainfall during the holiday affected corn harvesting and wheat sowing in North China, reducing urea demand and delaying the farming season. Downstream factories were on holiday, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories decreased significantly, and the terminal was weak due to rainfall. It is expected that factories will gradually resume production after the holiday, and terminal purchases will improve after the weather gets better. The inventory in upstream factories increased by about 17% compared with last week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1,648 yuan/ton, moved lower throughout the day, and finally closed at 1,609 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.42%. The trading volume was 310,689 lots (+43,221 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 21,894 lots, and short positions increased by 26,197 lots. Fangzheng Futures had a net long position of +2,259 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +2,059 lots, Dongzheng Futures had a net short position of +8,002 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +2,731 lots. On October 9, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,017, a decrease of 152 from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 152 in Tieling Dongbeifeng [2] - Spot: During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 39 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply data: On October 9, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.25% [9] - Downstream data: From October 4th to October 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 25.5%, a decrease of 6.96 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 65.47%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points from last week [13]

Report Overview - Research Date: September 18, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 18, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1681 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1662 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 287,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1680 yuan/ton (basis 10 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis -140 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1630 yuan/ton (basis -40 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis -20 yuan/ton) [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Prices and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally maintained a stable trend, with slight differences in some areas due to demand [6] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as planned, but the policy signals it released were complex, with both hawkish and dovish stances [7][8] 4. Market Outlook - Currently, domestic urea production has rebounded, but agricultural demand is in the off - season, industrial demand is growing slowly, and upstream factories are continuously accumulating inventory. The lowest bid in the latest Indian tender was lower than market expectations. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has reached 1165300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32600 tons. Supply is slightly stronger than demand, and enterprise inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][11]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The fundamentals showed little fluctuation, with the urea factory's production increasing last week and remaining stable this week. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened higher and moved higher today, but declined in the afternoon and closed down. The spot price was raised due to yesterday's sharp futures increase, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The market sentiment cooled after yesterday's rally, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1793 yuan/ton, moved higher, declined in the afternoon and closed at 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%. The trading volume was 208,609 lots, a decrease of 4,424 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4,156 lots, and short positions increased by 3,123 lots [2] - Spot: Affected by yesterday's sharp futures increase, today's spot price was raised, but market transactions were limited after the futures turned negative. The factory's small - particle urea ex - factory price in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1700 - 1740 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On August 20, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 80.81% [10] - Enterprise Inventory: As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. The pre - sale order days were 6.06 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The current supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows that agricultural demand is mainly sporadic purchases, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise, which will increase the demand for urea in the future. However, the current market sentiment is low, and factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials. The inventory has started to decline, and the anti - involution measures in the coal market support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is generally on the sidelines. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited due to the potential increase in industrial demand [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 7, 2025, with the spot market sentiment cooling and prices stabilizing. The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and the subsequent production is expected to decline slightly in summer. Agricultural demand is sporadic, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continues to rise. The inventory has started to decline, and the coal market's anti - involution measures support the cost of urea. Export news affects the futures price, and the downstream is cautious. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate bearishly, but the downside space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main 2509 contract of urea opened at 1,749 yuan/ton, closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The trading volume decreased by 7,152 lots to 115,300 lots. Among the top 20 institutional positions, the long - position decreased by 4,077 lots, and the short - position decreased by 5,702 lots. Some institutions increased or decreased their net long or short positions. Spot: The spot market sentiment cooled, and prices stabilized. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][5] Basis and Supply - Demand Data - Basis: Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the September contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On August 7, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.62%. Demand: From August 1 to August 7, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points from the previous week, and the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week [9][10][14] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the urea futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. Although upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill and there is little pressure to cut prices for now, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the expected end of agricultural demand around the end of June, weak demand will continue to drive the market trend. International urea's stimulating effect on the domestic market has subsided, and in the short term, urea is expected to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the development of subsequent export issues [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower today, and the market declined during the day. The supply pressure is limited even during the summer maintenance period due to the continuous release of new domestic production capacity. Agricultural demand is expected to end around the end of June, and the low operating load of compound fertilizer factories and inventory accumulation lead to insufficient willingness to purchase raw materials. Although inventory is being depleted and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased due to factors such as rainfall in North China and the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overall, the market is expected to consolidate in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton and closed at 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86%. The trading volume was 225,410 lots, a decrease of 23,795 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 17,863 lots and short positions decreased by 1,616 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed significantly [2]. - **Spot**: After the futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. However, upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill, and there is little pressure to cut prices for now. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1780 - 1810 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On June 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,581, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous trading day, with multiple delivery warehouses experiencing a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price weakened. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on June 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [10].

尿素日报 | 2025-06-06 农需不及预期，尿素大幅走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-05，尿素主力收盘1722元/吨（-52）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1840 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1850元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1870元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤660元/吨（+0），山东基差：128 元/吨（+32）；河南基差：118元/吨（+42）；江苏基差：148元/吨（+22）；尿素生产利润383元/吨（-20），出口利润 488元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2025-06-05，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-05，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 6月与7月为农业需求最旺季节，但下游农需启动不及预期，尿素盘面走低。尿素煤头企业利润尚可，检修企业依 旧偏少，装置开工率高位运行，未来尿素日均产量仍处于较高水平。下游工业需 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is weak, with urea export inspections underway and domestic urea exports proceeding in an orderly manner. Downstream industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine has weakened, while agricultural demand shows signs of starting but is weaker than expected. Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits, with few maintenance enterprises and high - level device operating rates. The daily urea output will remain at a high level. The urea export window is open, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased, leading to increased willingness of factories to ship goods to ports and rising port inventories. It is recommended to continuously monitor the start of downstream agricultural demand for urea and relevant export policies [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [7][8][16] 2. Urea Production - Covers the weekly urea production and the loss of urea device maintenance [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [22][24][26] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Contains FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of domestic urea, price differences, and export and disk export profits [29][34][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Comprises the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises [49][45] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [48][51][54] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On June 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,761 yuan/ton (- 12). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,870 yuan/ton (0), and in Jiangsu was 1,900 yuan/ton (0). The price of small - sized anthracite was 660 yuan/ton (0). The basis in Shandong was 109 yuan/ton (+ 12), in Henan was 89 yuan/ton (+ 12), and in Jiangsu was 139 yuan/ton (+ 12). The urea production profit was 403 yuan/ton (0), and the export profit was 487 yuan/ton (0) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.83% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 98.06 million tons (+ 6.32), and the port sample inventory was 20.50 million tons (+ 0.20) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of June 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.09% (+ 2.52%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.98% (- 3.51%), and the number of days of pre - received orders from urea enterprises was 5.88 days (- 0.06) [1]