尿素日报：情绪偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内上涨。今日现货价格上涨，交投氛围良好，部分 工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1590- 1670 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，虽位于气头装置停产期间， 但日产暂无大幅度下滑，依然在 19 万吨以上运行，农业需求处于淡季阶段，贸 易商适时补库。本期复合肥工厂开工环比下行，主要系部分地区环保检查导致 开工负荷下行，另一方面，复合肥价格增高后下游发运能力变差，工厂主动降 低负荷，东北工厂依旧保持冬储生产节奏，其他工业需求端因环保检查的结束 而逐渐复工，尿素下游依然有韧性。本期尿素库存继续去化，但主要集中在东 北西北地区，主交割区库存小幅增加。印标继续刺激市场情绪，尿素价格有延 续反弹，但过剩的缺口依然存在，上方压力明显。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1708 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 1.67%，持仓量 162527 手（-2001 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-3106 手， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]