1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market sentiment is strong. The futures price opened high and closed low but still rose during the day, and the spot price also increased. Although it is the period of gas - head device shutdown, the daily output remains above 190,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and traders replenish stocks in a timely manner. The compound fertilizer plant's start - up rate decreased this period, while other industrial demand gradually resumed. The urea inventory continued to decline, mainly in the Northeast and Northwest regions, and the inventory in the main delivery area increased slightly. The Indian tender continued to stimulate the market sentiment, and the urea price may continue to rebound, but there is still an oversupply gap and obvious upward pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1696 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, rose during the day, and finally closed at 1708 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.67%. The trading volume was 162,527 lots (- 2001 lots). The net long positions of some major futures companies decreased, and the net short positions of some increased. On December 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,177, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: The spot price increased, the trading atmosphere was good, and some factories stopped selling. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 28 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [6] - **Supply Data**: On December 18, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,100 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 79.99% [9] - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% [10] - **Pre - sale Order Days**: As of December 17, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.09% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From December 13th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous week [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]