Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for the chemical sector, particularly urea, is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract rising by 1.18% to 1797.00 yuan/ton as of February 9 [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, as of February 9, Shandong Ruixing's small granular urea price has been raised to 1780 yuan/ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation; Shandong Alliance's small granular urea is quoted between 1770-1800 yuan/ton, with actual transactions varying by region [2] - On the supply side, East China Futures analysis indicates that daily production has increased, leading to sustained pressure, while overall demand support is insufficient due to reduced compound fertilizer operations and weak expectations, alongside a lackluster export market and limited port demand [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, representing a 2.79% decline; the port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons, marking a 14.58% rise [2] - Looking ahead, Wukuang Futures believes that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, combined with expectations of improved operations at the end of January, indicating that bearish expectations for urea's fundamentals are approaching, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rallies [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The startup of Hengam's 1.1 million tons/year urea plant has been delayed due to nationwide protests and their political implications, impacting the urea supply chain [1]. Industry Insights - As of January 14, the price of small granular urea in Shandong is quoted at 1710-1740 RMB/ton, while medium granular urea from Shandong Hualu Hengsheng is priced at 1730 RMB/ton [1]. - The daily production of urea in the industry is reported at 199,400 tons, showing a decrease of 2,600 tons day-on-day, but there are expectations for supply improvement as gas companies are anticipated to resume production [1]. Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures suggests that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, and with expectations of a recovery in operations by the end of January, bearish expectations for urea fundamentals are imminent, recommending profit-taking on high prices [2]. - Guantong Futures indicates that in the absence of significant changes in fundamentals, the market is stabilizing after previous emotional fluctuations, with prices supported by continuous inventory depletion; urea is expected to consolidate in the short term while maintaining a strong outlook in the medium to long term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market sentiment is strong. The futures price opened high and closed low but still rose during the day, and the spot price also increased. Although it is the period of gas - head device shutdown, the daily output remains above 190,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and traders replenish stocks in a timely manner. The compound fertilizer plant's start - up rate decreased this period, while other industrial demand gradually resumed. The urea inventory continued to decline, mainly in the Northeast and Northwest regions, and the inventory in the main delivery area increased slightly. The Indian tender continued to stimulate the market sentiment, and the urea price may continue to rebound, but there is still an oversupply gap and obvious upward pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1696 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, rose during the day, and finally closed at 1708 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.67%. The trading volume was 162,527 lots (- 2001 lots). The net long positions of some major futures companies decreased, and the net short positions of some increased. On December 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,177, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Spot**: The spot price increased, the trading atmosphere was good, and some factories stopped selling. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1590 - 1670 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 28 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [6] - **Supply Data**: On December 18, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,100 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 79.99% [9] - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% [10] - **Pre - sale Order Days**: As of December 17, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.09% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From December 13th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous week [12]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term outlook for urea is weak, while medium - term outlook is oscillatory [2] - The driving force is neutral in the short - term, with spot trading weakening and futures prices under oscillatory pressure. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2] - In terms of valuation, there may be policy pressure on urea. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025 it was 664 tons. There are also planned new capacities in 2026 [23] - **Production**: From December 4 - 10, 2025, China's urea production was 1385400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons with limited change [2] - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory cash - flow cost line has risen [29] - **Profit**: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state [34] - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened [40] Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal demand for agriculture is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals show certain trends in capacity utilization, production cost, inventory and production profit [53][54][55] - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production profit, market price, production volume and capacity utilization [57][58] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [60] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On December 10, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.2342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.36%. Inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][66] - **Port Inventory**: China's urea port sample inventory was 123000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%, with some ports receiving more goods [2][66] International Urea - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and the CFR price in Brazil [19][70][71][72][73]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 on a scale ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers of urea are currently neutral. The demand - side factors such as reserve and export have led to a temporary improvement in the urea fundamentals, but the future upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The continuous reduction of visible inventory supports the price [2][3]. - In the short - term, the spot price of urea is strong due to continuous high trading volume, while the futures price is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, so its upward trend slows down. However, supported by the strong spot, the futures price is in a pattern of oscillation with an upward - shifting price center [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,692 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,690 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The trading volume was 120,620 lots, an increase of 34,553 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 209,553 lots, a decrease of 9,749 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,765 tons, a decrease of 122 tons; the trading volume was 407.808 million yuan, an increase of 118.24 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 12 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the difference between UR01 - UR05 was - 56, an increase of 9 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, while the prices of Shanxi Fengxi and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi areas remained unchanged. The industry's operating rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons [1]. [Industry News] - On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2]. - In terms of valuation, in the short - term, the valuation range of urea has shifted upward. The static valuation pressure on the futures is around 1,700 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the support for the 01 contract is estimated to be in the range of 1,580 - 1,600 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers of urea are currently neutral, with the subsequent upward movement of the drivers depending on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. The continuous reduction of visible inventory supports the price [2][3] - The short - term valuation range of urea has shifted upward. The static valuation pressure above the futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and the support below the 01 contract is expected to be at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of urea was 1,677 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,678 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 173,436 lots, an increase of 14,693 lots, and the open interest was 223,887 lots, a decrease of 7,026 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,587 tons, an increase of 406 tons, and the trading volume was 581,995 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 53,412 ten - thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 7, up 11; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 66, down 7 [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained stable, while the prices of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side operating rate was 84.10%, up 0.99 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.10%. The inventory of enterprises in some regions decreased, while that in some regions increased [2] - The demand side, with the superposition of reserves and exports, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, and its valuation is also high. The trend remains weak, but due to many important macro - events recently, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium - term, there is a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices both domestically and internationally over the years, including basis trends of different manufacturers and monthly spreads such as 5 - 9, 1 - 5, etc., as well as domestic and international spot price trends of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20] 2. Domestic Supply 2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 million tons, with many enterprises having new capacity or device resumption [24] 2.2 Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including different types such as normal maintenance, policy - based maintenance, fault - based maintenance, and loss (cost) - based maintenance. The loss of production volume varies among different enterprises [27] 2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, and production volume of coal - based and gas - based urea in China [28][29] 2.4 Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and historical cost trends of different production processes of urea [31] 2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, and the report shows the profit trends of different production processes of urea over the years [36] 2.6 Net Import (Export) - After the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 [42] 3. Domestic Demand 3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, with strong demand in some months. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [48][51][55] 3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate, cost, inventory, and profit trends of compound fertilizers [57] - **Melamine**: It shows the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate trends of melamine [58][59][60] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for wood - based panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. The report provides relevant export and real - estate construction and completion data [61][62] 4. Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1615400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, 2025 (week 42), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% [63][66] 5. International Urea - The report shows the historical price trends of large - granular urea FOB in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and large - granular urea CFR in Brazil [69][70][71][72][73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that urea was fluctuating strongly due to export disturbances, while this week's view is that with exports finalized, urea has returned to the domestic fundamental situation [3] - Currently, the domestic supply of urea is abundant, with the daily average output rising to around 195,000 tons, the highest level in the same period. The overall demand is showing a downward trend, and the market sentiment is generally stable. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, and the market is mainly weak [3] - India has tendered for 2 million tons of urea again, with a tender closing date of September 2nd and a shipping date at the end of October. Under the background of relaxed domestic exports, it has a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Overview**: Market sentiment has been average since the weekend. The ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas have risen, but the trading volume has been mediocre. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong have led the increase, and those in Henan have followed suit. The ex - factory prices in areas around the delivery area are weakly stable, and those in the Northeast are expected to decline. Overall, the short - term trend is weak, but the Indian tender provides some support [3] - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, focus on the bottom; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell put options on price declines [3] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (August 14 - 20), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%; that of gas - based urea was 75.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [4] - **Demand**: In the 34th week of 2025 (August 15 - 21), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64 percentage points. As of August 22, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 270 tons or 29.35%. As of August 20, the pre - order days of domestic urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 days or 3.66% [4] - **Inventory**: As of August 20, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons or 6.95% from the previous week. The sample inventory at ports was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons or 7.97% from the previous week [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal stopped rising and declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 200 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 430 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the urea market enters a waiting period. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side centralized maintenance leading to lower operating rates and daily output, and demand - side trade - related export pick - up preventing significant short - term inventory build - up. However, export information is uncertain. The main concerns are spot trading and overall commodity sentiment [3][4]. - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. Domestic demand is weak due to pre - empted agricultural demand and high inventories of middle - stream traders. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, there is still significant long - term pressure on urea, and the price center may gradually decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (Urea Main Contract 09)**: The closing price was 1,737 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,733 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the trading volume was 155,952 lots (down 108,465 lots), the open interest was 222,192 lots (down 1,691 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 500 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 540.519 million yuan (down 374.532 million yuan) [2]. - **Basis**: The Shandong regional basis was 63 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 77 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and the Dongguang - to - futures basis (cheapest deliverable) was 23 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The UR09 - UR01 spread for Henan Xinlianxin was 38 (1,810) (down 320) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of some enterprises changed. For example, Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,500 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and Shanxi Fengxi was 1,660 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 84.49% (down 1.68 percentage points), and the daily output was 195,610 tons (down 3,900 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 million tons, a decrease of 77,400 tons from the previous week, a 7.06% week - on - week decrease. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases [3]. - Short - term: The spot market has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The market is in a waiting period due to expected marginal improvement in fundamentals in early July and uncertain export information [3][4]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main issues. Domestic demand is weak because of pre - empted agricultural demand and high - inventory middle - stream traders, and long - term price pressure is high [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].