Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that urea was fluctuating strongly due to export disturbances, while this week's view is that with exports finalized, urea has returned to the domestic fundamental situation [3] - Currently, the domestic supply of urea is abundant, with the daily average output rising to around 195,000 tons, the highest level in the same period. The overall demand is showing a downward trend, and the market sentiment is generally stable. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, and the market is mainly weak [3] - India has tendered for 2 million tons of urea again, with a tender closing date of September 2nd and a shipping date at the end of October. Under the background of relaxed domestic exports, it has a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Overview**: Market sentiment has been average since the weekend. The ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas have risen, but the trading volume has been mediocre. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong have led the increase, and those in Henan have followed suit. The ex - factory prices in areas around the delivery area are weakly stable, and those in the Northeast are expected to decline. Overall, the short - term trend is weak, but the Indian tender provides some support [3] - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, focus on the bottom; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell put options on price declines [3] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (August 14 - 20), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%; that of gas - based urea was 75.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [4] - **Demand**: In the 34th week of 2025 (August 15 - 21), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64 percentage points. As of August 22, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 270 tons or 29.35%. As of August 20, the pre - order days of domestic urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 days or 3.66% [4] - **Inventory**: As of August 20, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons or 6.95% from the previous week. The sample inventory at ports was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons or 7.97% from the previous week [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal stopped rising and declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 200 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 430 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the urea market enters a waiting period. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side centralized maintenance leading to lower operating rates and daily output, and demand - side trade - related export pick - up preventing significant short - term inventory build - up. However, export information is uncertain. The main concerns are spot trading and overall commodity sentiment [3][4]. - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. Domestic demand is weak due to pre - empted agricultural demand and high inventories of middle - stream traders. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, there is still significant long - term pressure on urea, and the price center may gradually decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (Urea Main Contract 09)**: The closing price was 1,737 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,733 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the trading volume was 155,952 lots (down 108,465 lots), the open interest was 222,192 lots (down 1,691 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 500 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 540.519 million yuan (down 374.532 million yuan) [2]. - **Basis**: The Shandong regional basis was 63 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 77 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and the Dongguang - to - futures basis (cheapest deliverable) was 23 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The UR09 - UR01 spread for Henan Xinlianxin was 38 (1,810) (down 320) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of some enterprises changed. For example, Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,500 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and Shanxi Fengxi was 1,660 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 84.49% (down 1.68 percentage points), and the daily output was 195,610 tons (down 3,900 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 million tons, a decrease of 77,400 tons from the previous week, a 7.06% week - on - week decrease. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases [3]. - Short - term: The spot market has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The market is in a waiting period due to expected marginal improvement in fundamentals in early July and uncertain export information [3][4]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main issues. Domestic demand is weak because of pre - empted agricultural demand and high - inventory middle - stream traders, and long - term price pressure is high [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].