2025年全年来看，国内尿素日产高点接近21万吨。据金联创统计，2025年我国尿素年度平均开工率在 82.70%，平均日产量在19.61万吨，2025年国内尿素产量总计7156.29万吨，较2024年（6608.13万吨）增 加约548.16万吨，增长率8.29%。 2026年就新增产能及重启装置推算，日产高点22万吨也不是没有可能。持续高供应已是既定事实，是常 量，当然也一定会压制行情上涨幅度，但不是说行情一定就不可以涨。那尿素市场的变量在哪呢？政 策、成本、情绪、需求、库存、价格中枢所处的位置等等都是尿素行情的驱动因素。行情的波动一定是 多因素影响的结果，只盯着日产21万吨、22万吨，去判断未来走势本就过于片面。 来源：中国能源网 尿素现货全面停售，期货主力站上1800元/吨，现货端仅仅局部的窄幅松动，市场情绪又迎来大反转！ 今日山东、河南、河北、山西、安徽、江苏等区域捷报频传，尿素工厂或封单停售或二调涨价，市场再 现欣欣向荣的局面。尿素市场可谓"东方不亮西方亮"，那涨势是否持续？可参考以下几点： 1、日产虽高，但已既定 2、库存低位，工厂挺价 4、需求谨慎，择机入场 四季度以来，尿素工厂货源流向以复合肥 ...

Group 1 - In July, urea prices experienced a spike followed by a decline due to macroeconomic factors, with expectations of maintaining volatility in August as fundamentals become crucial [1] - High supply remains the primary pressure on urea prices, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, marking a historical high compared to previous years [4] - As of August 7, urea enterprise inventory reached 783,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, indicating sustained high supply levels [4] Group 2 - Demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve in August, becoming the main driver of demand as production ramps up for the autumn season, with compound fertilizer operating rates rising to approximately 34%, a 14 percentage point increase from previous lows [5] - Recent adjustments in export policies have allowed for partial exports of urea to India, with price floors set at $470/ton for small granules and $490/ton for large granules, potentially providing support to the market [6] - The raw material side remains relatively strong, with coal prices increasing from around 620 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.87%, which may lead to increased production costs for urea [7] - Overall, despite high supply acting as a key suppressive factor, support from raw materials, domestic demand, and exports may lead to a "top-down, bottom-up" volatile market for urea in August [7]