长江期货尿素周报： 供求宽松 关注边际改善 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 1 市场变化：价格：受尿素现货报价下调及出货情况不佳影响，盘面市场预期支撑减弱，尿素价格先强后弱。9月5日 尿素2601合约收盘价1713元/吨，较上周下调33元/吨，跌幅1.89%，期间最低跌至1706元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日 均价1699元/吨，较上周下调28元/吨，跌幅1.62%。基差：9月5日河南市场主力基差-14元/吨，周度基差运行区间 （-35）—（-3）元/吨。价差：9月5日9-1价差-51元/吨，周度运行区间（-73）—（-50 ）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率79.13%，较上周降低2.6个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率71.15%，较 上周降低0.65个百分点，尿素日均产量18.27万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投降温，价格以稳为主，截至9月4日，山西 晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价840-900元/吨，山西阳泉地区S1-1.5无烟洗块含税价760-800元/吨，均较上周同期 收盘价格重心持平。需求端全国农业需求此阶段较分散。复合肥企业产能运行率33.08% ...

Group 1 - In July, urea prices experienced a spike followed by a decline due to macroeconomic factors, with expectations of maintaining volatility in August as fundamentals become crucial [1] - High supply remains the primary pressure on urea prices, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, marking a historical high compared to previous years [4] - As of August 7, urea enterprise inventory reached 783,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, indicating sustained high supply levels [4] Group 2 - Demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve in August, becoming the main driver of demand as production ramps up for the autumn season, with compound fertilizer operating rates rising to approximately 34%, a 14 percentage point increase from previous lows [5] - Recent adjustments in export policies have allowed for partial exports of urea to India, with price floors set at $470/ton for small granules and $490/ton for large granules, potentially providing support to the market [6] - The raw material side remains relatively strong, with coal prices increasing from around 620 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.87%, which may lead to increased production costs for urea [7] - Overall, despite high supply acting as a key suppressive factor, support from raw materials, domestic demand, and exports may lead to a "top-down, bottom-up" volatile market for urea in August [7]