居民财富搬家

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中国居民财富搬家路线图暨非银金融行业投资机会:存款潮涌,逐险而行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 11:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [2] Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is likened to "living water" for wealth, facilitating an influx of incremental funds into risk assets. The continuous decline in deposit rates encourages clients to seek higher returns and diversified allocations, prompting financial institutions to innovate products that meet varying risk-return needs [3][4] - The non-bank financial sector presents significant investment opportunities due to performance elasticity, with the capital market entering a valuation recovery phase. The report outlines three phases of a bull market: valuation repair, hot sector rotation, and valuation bubble [3][4] - The report highlights a clear trend of increasing fixed-term deposits among residents, with the proportion exceeding 70% in early 2023 and projected to reach 72.28% by 2025, indicating a shift in savings behavior [16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Section: Turning Point of Wealth Migration - The report discusses the ongoing trend of wealth migration among residents, emphasizing the shift towards riskier assets as deposit rates decline [3][4] 2. Macro Trends: Sources of Increased Risk Appetite - The report identifies that the decline in deposit rates and the search for higher returns are driving residents to explore various financial products, including bank wealth management and public funds [3][4] 3. Asset Management Section: Adjustments in the "Dumbbell Structure" - The report notes that the asset management sector is experiencing a shift as residents move from traditional savings to more diversified investment products, reflecting a broader trend in wealth management [3][4]