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李蓓:银行理财含权水平提升空间大,居民财富就像被蓄积起来的火焰燃料,为行情提供强劲动力
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-30 02:29
Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted a bullish market outlook driven by the reallocation of resident wealth and foreign capital inflows, suggesting a significant market rally is in the making [1][3] - Current risk appetite among domestic investors remains low, with a substantial amount of wealth concentrated in fixed-income products, indicating potential for a market reversal [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Domestic risk appetite is at a low point, with a significant portion of wealth in bank wealth management and deposits, which has decreased from a high of approximately 10% in 2018 to 2% recently [1][3] - The current configuration of wealth suggests a buildup of potential market momentum, akin to stored fuel ready to ignite upon market triggers [3] Group 2: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign capital allocation in Chinese assets is currently at a low level, with expectations of a reversal in the trend of foreign capital reduction, which could significantly impact market strength [3] - The combination of foreign capital inflows and the reallocation of domestic wealth is anticipated to be a major driving force for market growth [3]
中国居民财富搬家路线图暨非银金融行业投资机会:存款潮涌,逐险而行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 11:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [2] Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is likened to "living water" for wealth, facilitating an influx of incremental funds into risk assets. The continuous decline in deposit rates encourages clients to seek higher returns and diversified allocations, prompting financial institutions to innovate products that meet varying risk-return needs [3][4] - The non-bank financial sector presents significant investment opportunities due to performance elasticity, with the capital market entering a valuation recovery phase. The report outlines three phases of a bull market: valuation repair, hot sector rotation, and valuation bubble [3][4] - The report highlights a clear trend of increasing fixed-term deposits among residents, with the proportion exceeding 70% in early 2023 and projected to reach 72.28% by 2025, indicating a shift in savings behavior [16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Section: Turning Point of Wealth Migration - The report discusses the ongoing trend of wealth migration among residents, emphasizing the shift towards riskier assets as deposit rates decline [3][4] 2. Macro Trends: Sources of Increased Risk Appetite - The report identifies that the decline in deposit rates and the search for higher returns are driving residents to explore various financial products, including bank wealth management and public funds [3][4] 3. Asset Management Section: Adjustments in the "Dumbbell Structure" - The report notes that the asset management sector is experiencing a shift as residents move from traditional savings to more diversified investment products, reflecting a broader trend in wealth management [3][4]