以下文章来源于起朱楼宴宾客 ，作者大卫翁 起朱楼宴宾客 . 金融狗记录这个大时代，播客同名 除了个别失意者，比如数字货币、各国国债以及石油之外，从股市到贵金属到资源品，从美股到A股 再到日欧甚至拉美股市，从量化到主动权益再到CTA，这是个涨声一片的年份。 猜中这个结果的人并不多，毕竟我们在年中经历了太多大起大落。而如果复盘我在年初对2025的几 个猜想，结论也是在这个大时代中，做猜想可真是越来越难了。我已经尽量讨巧地描绘出一些比较大 而化之的场景，没想到还是有好几个错得离谱。 比如第一个关于政府化债，事实上这应该不是解决中国问题的扣，它只是一个起始点。 本文来自微信公众号： 起朱楼宴宾客 ，作者：大卫翁，头图来自：视觉中国 去年的猜想文开头 ，我说"期待能再拥有一个各种资产的全年涨幅都和2024差不多的一年"，事实证 明我的格局还是不够打开。 2025年，我们拥有了一个对于投资而言称得上"梦幻"的年份。 2025年从春节的Deepseek Moment开始，关税战、反内卷，再到下半年对AI泡沫的争论不休和房地 产的彻底沉沦，市场关注的焦点不断切换，但化债已经不再是其中的一个。 它是不是停止了呢？当然也不是，根 ...

Core Insights - The fluctuations in the stock market are more influenced by non-bank financial institutions rather than changes in household deposits, indicating a continued trend of excess savings among Chinese residents [1][2][4] - The monthly data volatility does not alter the ongoing trend of household deleveraging, as evidenced by the widening loan-to-deposit gap [1][4] Summary by Sections Household Deposits - In July, household deposits in RMB decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same month last year, reflecting seasonal factors rather than a significant trend [2][3] - Since 2009, July has consistently shown negative growth in household deposits, with 11 out of 14 years seeing stock market gains during this month [2] Household Loans - For the first time since 2009, household loans decreased in July, dropping by 489.3 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the average for the same period from 2020 to 2024 [3][4] - The trend of "more savings, less borrowing" is evident, with household loans increasing by only 680.8 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year, a decrease of 579.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4] Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions is a more reliable indicator of stock market movements, with a notable increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, which is 1.39 trillion yuan more than the previous year [4][5] - The correlation between changes in non-bank financial institution deposits and stock market performance is moderate to strong, suggesting that as these deposits increase, the stock market tends to rise [5][6] Deleveraging Trends - The household leverage ratio has slightly decreased, with the ratio at 61.1% as of the second quarter, down from 62.3% in the previous year [7][11] - The ongoing trend of household deleveraging reflects a broader economic context where the leverage ratio of the entire economy has been rising, with households contributing less to this increase compared to other sectors [10][11] Economic Context - The current economic environment shows that despite the increase in household savings, there is a lack of willingness to invest in riskier assets, indicating potential for future diversification in asset allocation [6][16] - The government may need to increase leverage to stabilize and stimulate demand, as current household debt levels and consumption capabilities are insufficient [16]