稳定币对金融体系的潜在影响 20250617 摘要 截至 2025 年 5 月末，主流稳定币市值约 2,300 亿美元，五年内增长超 40 倍，年度交易额达 28 万亿美元，超过 Visa 和 Mastercard，显示其 在加密货币体系中的重要性。 美国和中国香港针对稳定币的法规主要关注储备资产透明度、流动性管 理、算法稳定性、反洗钱和消费者保护，要求 100%储备资产锚定法币 或高流动性资产，并需获得监管牌照。 稳定币提供低成本、高效率的国际支付手段，费率低于 1%，交易时间 短，但合规成本可能提高，且对新兴市场资本账户和货币主权构成潜在 冲击。 理论上，稳定币发行需 100%储备资产，不影响美元货币供应，但实际 操作中，储备资产若用于购买国债，可能导致银行缩表和货币供应减少， 引发金融脱媒。 稳定币发行机构购买储备资产时，资产负债表同步增加，居民购买稳定 币导致发行机构库存下降、现金增加，银行同业存款增加、居民存款减 少，银行存款总量短期内不变。 Q&A 稳定币是什么？它有哪些类型？ 稳定币是一种价值稳定、锚定特定资产的加密货币，通常锚定法定货币。稳定 币主要分为三类：第一类是法币抵押型稳定币，即挂钩金 ...

中金公司 5 月金融数据解读 20250613 摘要 5 月新增贷款同比减少，公司贷款少增 2000 亿，反映信贷需求不足， 尤其是中长期对公贷款和零售贷款增速低于 8%，表明实体经济需求恢 复缓慢。LPR 调降未能有效刺激企业贷款需求，2025 年以来企业贷款 需求整体下降。 社融同比多增主要依赖政府债券发行，而非信贷增长，政府成为主要加 杠杆主体。政府债券投向项目收益产生周期较长，导致金融数据与实体 经济景气度存在滞后效应。短期对公、票据贴现和非银贷款支撑社融数 据，但未能完全反映真实需求。 银行负债压力较大，依赖政信类大项目维持稳定，批发、制造业等领域 信贷需求未完全恢复。未来流动性受财政政策和大型项目进展影响，需 关注金融脱媒现象，资金从银行体系转移至其他渠道，增加银行流动性 压力，削弱货币政策传导效果。 居民短期贷款因银行促销力度下降而减少，中长期贷款受益于房贷利率 下调和提前还贷率下降而有所好转，与商品房销售数据基本吻合。对公 贷款受限，绿色普惠金融虽增速下降但仍是重要贡献部分，信贷需求压 力依然存在。 Q&A 目前的信贷需求情况如何？对市场有何影响？ 2025 年以来整体下降，这也一定程度上表明 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们预计债市短端利率可能打开下行空间，预计 1 年同业存单收益率下行至 1.6%左右，1 年期 国债收益率下行至 1.3%，短端利率的充分下行将会带来长端利率的下行空间。一方面，若央行 买卖国债重启，将直接利好债市，尤其是短端品种；即使不考虑央行通过一级交易商买入国债， 出于平衡资负压力需求和应对长债调整压力，大行也有买入短债的动力。另一方面，存款挂牌 利率带来的存款"搬家"预计节奏偏缓，银行负债压力可控，且当前央行流动性投放呵护态度 明确，同业存单利率也有望继续下行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title] 买短债，正当时 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 买短债，正当时 [Table_Summary2] 大行买入短债，短端行情有望开启 央行买卖国债操作如果重启，将直接利好债市，尤其是短端品种。央行若重启国债买卖操作， 形式可能和 202 ...

银行引导储户"存短期"的意图依然清晰。 值得注意的是，目前中小银行仍存在一定程度的存款利率期限倒挂。例如，记者21日致电咨询时，新疆库尔勒富民村 镇银行1年期存款利率为2%，两年期存款利率为2.05%，5年期存款利率为1.95%。怀仁农商行、朔州农商行、陵川县 联社的中短期限存款利率也存在不同程度的倒挂。 华南一名银行分析人士认为，按照存款降息"大行先行、中小行跟进"的节奏，此后上述中小银行1年期存款利率或也 将陆续下调，与3年期、5年期存款利率接近。市场中存在的存款利率极限倒挂现象或将逐步消失。 此前第一财经曾报道多家银行出现"存两年不如存一年""存五年不如存一年"的极限倒挂现象。（详见《存两年不如存 一年？多家银行中短期限存款利率罕见倒挂》） 现在随着存款降息潮来临，活期与中短期存款利率普遍下调，以招商银行为代表的头部机构，其一年期与五年期存款 利率倒挂已消失。目前，中小银行期限倒挂依然存在。部分业内人士认为，随着后续中小银行补降，中短期限存款利 率进一步压降，与长期限存款利率间的倒挂或也将减少或消失。 值得关注的是，银行引导储户"存短期"的意图依然清晰，在应对净息差收窄压力的同时，正通过精细化定价策略重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attitude towards the bond market remains relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - high duration in the portfolio, appropriately increase leverage to boost short - bond holdings, and seize buying opportunities for long - end bonds during adjustments [3][49]. - Although short - term interest rates are currently weak, as technical factors wane and with the potential for deposit rate cuts and a stable monetary policy, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Constraints on Short - Term Interest Rates from Some Technical Factors May Weaken in the Future - The weak performance of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) has restricted short - term interest rates. After the basis repair, the IRR of the CTD bond of the TS2506 contract has dropped, reducing the suppression on futures prices and potentially boosting confidence in short - term bonds [7][12]. - The decline in the central bank's claims on the government in the balance sheet may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds previously purchased or the closing of the previous short - selling long - buying operation. Currently, the impact of this factor is gradually weakening, and large banks have resumed net buying of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds [12][15][16]. 3.2 In the Short Term, the Probability of the Funding Rate Remaining Loose but Lower than the Policy Rate is Low, but the Decline in Deposit Rates is Still Expected to Benefit the Short - End - After the RRR cut, the tightening of the funding market was a temporary shock. The average - method assessment of the RRR and the large - scale net payment of government bonds and net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and MLF were the main reasons [17][18][19]. - Although the excess reserve ratio in April was at a low level, the central bank may tolerate a decline in banks' net lending, indicating that it hopes to maintain a loose environment but may not want the funding rate to fall significantly below the policy rate. The decline in deposit rates is conducive to compressing short - and medium - term spreads [25][30]. 3.3 The Weakening of Economic Data in April Indicates Insufficient Demand, and the Fundamental Environment is Still Favorable for the Bond Market - In April, new credit and social financing were both lower than expected. New credit mainly came from government bond issuance, and the decline in new credit may be due to the lack of bank reserve projects after the early - year impulse [34][35][39]. - Despite the slowdown in credit growth, the M2 growth rate increased due to the rise in banks' net lending and bond investment. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating limited currency activation [39][42]. - In April, domestic demand declined. Retail sales, investment, and production all showed signs of weakness, indicating that the fundamental environment is favorable for the bond market [44][45][47]. 3.4 The Bond Market is Expected to Continue a Relatively Strong and Volatile Trend - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the impact of short - term export rush is short - term. External demand still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand is insufficient. - The monetary policy is expected to remain in a loose range. If the funding expectation stabilizes, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [49].

4 月金融数据解读、银行投资框架及观点更新 20250514 摘要 • 四月社融数据主要依赖政府加杠杆，广义政府融资占比超三分之二，信贷 数据低于预期，企业中长期贷款增速持续下行，反映出经济内生动力不足， 需关注未来政策刺激。 • 居民端信贷表现疲软，短期贷款同比显著下降，反映消费意愿不强，但房 贷利率已降至历史低位，购房现金比例仍高，抑制中长期贷款投放，未来 或有更多促消费政策出台。 • 央行降息有助于稳定居民中长期贷款，M2 增速受益于非银存款高增而提 升，但金融脱媒进程放缓，M1 增速指示 PPI 仍面临通缩压力，监管目标转 向价格考核，避免过度货币扩张。 • 企业贷款供过于求，个人贷款供需平衡，货币政策或更侧重刺激有效贷款 需求，社融及信贷增速预计下行，结构上政府融资为主，投放注重效率， 避免资金空转。 • 银行股投资逻辑基于经济资产质量、利率风险和资金支持，当前投资银行 板块主要基于其稳健利润和稳定股息回报，股息率较高标的更具吸引力， 回报率在 4%-6%之间。 Q&A 四月的金融数据有哪些关键点？ 四月份的新增社会融资规模（社融）为 1.1 万亿元，比去年略有上升。然而， 新增人民币信贷仅为 84 ...