广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看多权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向上、估值适中且 呈现资金流入状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向下。 | 资产 | 宏观分析层面观点 | 技术分析 层面观点 | 月度观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益 | 当前宏观层面整体利多权益资产 | 趋势向上 估值适中 资金流入 | 看多 | | 债券 | 当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产 | 趋势向下 | 看空 | | 黄金 | 当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产 | 趋势向上 | 看平 | | 工业品 | 当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产 | 趋势向下 | 看平 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes based on macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a mixed outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic view suggests a neutral stance on equity assets, a favorable outlook for bond assets, a negative outlook for industrial products, and a positive outlook for gold assets [5][19]. - Specific macro indicators such as PMI, CPI, and social financing are analyzed to assess their impact on asset performance [6][19]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equity and bond assets, while industrial products and gold show an upward trend [9][10][19]. - The article employs various trend indicators to measure the performance of different asset classes, with historical data supporting the current trends [7][10]. Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is reported at 73.74%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low [12][13]. - The analysis of fund flow shows a net inflow of 915 million yuan into equity assets, suggesting a positive sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 1.06% as of June 2025, with an annualized return of 11.86% since April 2006 [2][20][24]. - Different asset allocation strategies, including risk parity and volatility control, have been evaluated, showing varying returns and risk profiles [25][24]. Summary of Asset Class Scores - The combined scores from macro and technical indicators show equities at 0, bonds at 2, industrial products at 0, and gold at 4, reflecting the overall market sentiment and expected performance [18][19].