Tabl e_Title 2025 年 8 月 11 日 大类资产运行周报（202500804-20250808） 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.25% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 2.55% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.39% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.47% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.32% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -0.43% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -0.41% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -1.19% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250519 -20250523）-美欧关税谈判再掀波澜 权 益资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends maintaining a high allocation to equity assets in August, with small-cap and growth styles expected to be dominant. It also suggests focusing on relatively stable "Fixed Income +" funds and short-duration bond funds [3][69]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Review Stock Market - A - shares and U.S. stocks rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 5.06%, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.83%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 3.63%. Positive signals drove A - shares up, and the U.S. economy's resilience led to U.S. stock gains [9][11]. Bond Market - U.S. Treasury and Chinese government bond yields increased. The 1 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.09%, the 10 - year to 4.40%; the 1 - year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.38%, and the 10 - year to 1.73% [9]. Commodity Market - Commodity prices increased. The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.67%, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 6.22%, and COMEX gold rose 0.71%. Crude oil prices also slightly increased [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The U.S. dollar index rose to 97.67, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly, remaining around 7.17 [9]. Fund Market - The fund market performed well in July, but the issuance scale decreased. As of July 25, the total fund issuance scale was 81.9 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous month. Equity - type funds accounted for 38% of the issuance, with a 30% decline in scale compared to the previous month. Ordinary stock - type funds performed outstandingly. In addition, on - exchange funds had a net inflow, while equity - type ETFs and LOFs had net outflows [29][34]. - Active equity funds increased their positions in the prosperity, dividend, and quality styles, with median positions of 33%, 24%, and 30% respectively, up 12%, 10%, and 9% from the end of the previous month, and reduced their positions in the value - potential style, with the median position dropping 13% to 2% [35]. 8 - Month Outlook Asset Allocation Logic - The stock - bond rotation model indicates that the private - sector financing growth rate continued to rise in June, with growth and inflation factors increasing, suggesting significant fundamental improvement and continued bullishness on equity assets. The A - share market sentiment index shows that sentiment indicators are oscillating at a high level, and overall market sentiment remains optimistic [3][69]. Market Style - The growth - value style rotation model recommends the growth style, as market factors and U.S. Treasury yields are favorable for growth, although style momentum favors value [59]. - The small - and large - cap style rotation model suggests the small - cap style, as the current monetary environment and short - and long - term style momentum still recommend small - cap stocks [64]. Fund Allocation Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high allocation to equity assets, focus on small - cap and growth styles, pay attention to relatively stable "Fixed Income +" funds, and short - duration bond funds. Specific funds recommended include Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF, medium - high risk), Anxin Advantage Growth (001287.OF, medium - high risk), Huaxia Innovation Frontier (002980.OF, medium - high risk), Bank of China Steady Income (380009.OF, medium risk), and Penghua Stable Income Short - Term Bond (007515.OF) [3][69].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes based on macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a mixed outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic view suggests a neutral stance on equity assets, a favorable outlook for bond assets, a negative outlook for industrial products, and a positive outlook for gold assets [5][19]. - Specific macro indicators such as PMI, CPI, and social financing are analyzed to assess their impact on asset performance [6][19]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equity and bond assets, while industrial products and gold show an upward trend [9][10][19]. - The article employs various trend indicators to measure the performance of different asset classes, with historical data supporting the current trends [7][10]. Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is reported at 73.74%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low [12][13]. - The analysis of fund flow shows a net inflow of 915 million yuan into equity assets, suggesting a positive sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 1.06% as of June 2025, with an annualized return of 11.86% since April 2006 [2][20][24]. - Different asset allocation strategies, including risk parity and volatility control, have been evaluated, showing varying returns and risk profiles [25][24]. Summary of Asset Class Scores - The combined scores from macro and technical indicators show equities at 0, bonds at 2, industrial products at 0, and gold at 4, reflecting the overall market sentiment and expected performance [18][19].

Group 1 - The report indicates a positive outlook for equity assets, supported by a stock-bond rotation model showing a marginal decline in private sector financing growth but still in an upward trend, with inflation factors decreasing and economic recovery signals persisting [4][9] - The sentiment index for the A-share market has turned optimistic for the upcoming month, with indicators such as stock investment ratios and net inflows from large orders maintaining a bullish outlook [4][9] - The report recommends maintaining a high allocation to equity assets, with a focus on small-cap and growth styles for July, while suggesting stable fixed-income products for conservative investors [4][10] Group 2 - The report highlights the implementation of consumption policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and expanding financial support for consumption, with 19 key measures proposed [5][12] - A high-quality development plan for inclusive finance has been published, emphasizing the establishment of a comprehensive inclusive financial system over the next five years [5][12] - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a more optimistic view of the domestic economy, while maintaining a stance of "moderate easing" in monetary policy [5][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the ETF market has performed well recently, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs, particularly in the ChiNext index ETF and financial real estate sector ETFs [6][15] - The report mentions that 16 new ETFs were launched in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 6.621 billion units, indicating growth in the ETF market [6][15] - The performance of thematic ETFs, such as those tracking AI and robotics, has been highlighted, with notable inflows and returns [6][17] Group 4 - The report discusses the wind power sector, forecasting a doubling of global offshore wind installations by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 21% expected over the next decade [19][20] - It also mentions the competitive landscape in the energy storage market, with prices for lithium iron phosphate battery systems continuing to decline, reflecting increased competition [20][21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies in the offshore wind sector and those involved in energy storage, highlighting specific firms such as Mingyang Smart Energy and Sunshine Power [21][22] Group 5 - The report emphasizes innovation in the liquor industry, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao focusing on low-alcohol and youth-oriented products to meet changing consumer demands [22][23] - It identifies opportunities in the beverage and snack sectors, driven by evolving consumer preferences and the introduction of functional products [22][23]

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China reached a new high of 33.74 trillion yuan by the end of May 2025, reflecting the robust development of the asset management industry and investors' continued preference for professional investment services [1] - As of May 2025, there are 164 public fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications, managing a total net asset value of 33.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.62 trillion yuan or 1.87% from the end of April [1] - The total scale of public funds has set a historical record for the eighth time since 2024, showcasing the strong growth momentum of China's asset management industry [1] Group 2 - By the end of May, the net asset value of open-end funds totaled 29.98 trillion yuan, while closed-end funds accounted for 3.76 trillion yuan, with open-end funds continuing to expand in scale, shares, and quantity [1] - Open-end funds include five major categories: stock funds (4.58 trillion yuan), mixed funds (3.57 trillion yuan), bond funds (6.78 trillion yuan), money market funds (14.40 trillion yuan), and QDII funds (0.65 trillion yuan), with most categories experiencing growth [2] - Money market and bond funds significantly contributed to the overall growth of public fund scale, with increases of 407.13 billion yuan and 221.88 billion yuan, respectively [2] Group 3 - The number of equity funds is a key focus for public institutions, with 60 new stock funds added by the end of May, indicating a long-term positive outlook for the equity market [2] - In the context of global uncertainty and moderate domestic economic recovery, the industry suggests maintaining a balanced allocation towards high-growth technology assets and high-dividend cyclical assets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active leverage funds in the A-share market, with financing balances exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan for nine consecutive days as of June 19 [1][4][6] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry continues to attract financing, with a net buying amount exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in the week, while the power equipment, oil and petrochemical, and computer industries also saw significant net buying [2][10][11] - Brokerages are optimistic about the performance of Chinese equity assets in the second half of the year, with foreign capital predicting that these assets will outperform overseas markets [3][12][14] Group 2 - The financing balance in the A-share market has shown fluctuations this year, peaking at 1.9 trillion yuan in mid-March and dropping below 1.8 trillion yuan until June 9, when it rose again [6][8] - From June 9 to June 19, daily financing buying amounts exceeded 100 billion yuan, with June 10 reaching a peak of 126.75 billion yuan [7] - The pharmaceutical sector led the net buying amounts, with a total of 6.244 billion yuan in net buying this month, despite experiencing negative net buying in the last three days of the week [10][9] Group 3 - The power equipment sector recorded a net buying amount of 843 million yuan, while the oil and petrochemical and computer industries followed closely with net buying amounts of 610 million yuan and 603 million yuan, respectively [11] - Various brokerages have released strategies for the second half of 2025, suggesting that the A-share market's central oscillation is expected to gradually rise, driven by fiscal stimulus and improved liquidity [12][13] - Analysts emphasize the importance of domestic consumption and self-sufficiency as key themes for the A-share market in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors less reliant on imports from the U.S. [14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a depreciation of the US dollar is increasing due to misalignment in monetary policy and obstacles in the dollar's external circulation, suggesting a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar Depreciation - Since 1970, there have been seven significant periods of dollar depreciation, each impacting asset performance differently, with commodities generally benefiting the most [2]. - Key periods include: 1. 1971-1973: Breakdown of the Bretton Woods system led to a dollar credit crisis, benefiting commodities and Asian equities [2]. 2. 1976-1980: Missteps by the Federal Reserve resulted in high inflation, with commodities performing best amid concerns of stagflation [2]. 3. 1985-1987: The Plaza Accord initiated a deliberate dollar depreciation, with industrial metals outperforming precious metals and Japanese equities leading globally [2]. 4. 1989-1992: US economic recession and German reunification led to a weaker dollar, with subdued performance in commodities and equities [2]. 5. 1994-1995: Unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve suppressed economic expectations, benefiting commodities as non-US economies rebounded [2]. 6. 2002-2008: The US faced "twin deficits," leading to a commodities bull market and strong performance in non-US equities [2]. 7. 2017-2018: Recovery in the Eurozone and emerging markets resulted in positive returns for both commodities and equities [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Dollar Weakness - Factors contributing to dollar weakness include relative economic advantages, misaligned monetary policies, and credit risks associated with the dollar [3]. - Economic advantages typically arise during global economic recoveries, prompting capital to flow from the US to faster-growing regions [3]. - Misalignment in monetary policy has historically led to dollar weakness, though such periods are rare [3]. - Credit risks emerge when global investors grow concerned about the dollar's stability, leading to a sell-off and subsequent depreciation [3]. Group 3: Asset Performance During Dollar Weakness - Commodities consistently outperform during periods of dollar weakness, driven by demand for physical assets and reduced investment costs for developed countries [4]. - Non-US equity markets tend to benefit more than US equities, with emerging markets showing greater elasticity in capital inflows [4]. - Historical performance rankings during dollar depreciation periods show that the Hang Seng Index outperformed, followed by the Nikkei 225 and European markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The likelihood of a trend towards dollar depreciation is increasing, with a focus on foreign exchange markets, commodities, and non-US equity investments [5]. - Key investment areas include: 1. Foreign exchange: The Eurozone, Japan, and Canada are expected to see their currencies strengthen due to high net positions in US assets [5]. 2. Commodities: Continued value in gold and potential for other physical assets to gain traction [5]. 3. Equities: Focus on economies with leverage capacity, such as Germany and India, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares due to improved liquidity [5].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.36%, the ChiNext Index by 1.40%, and the large-cap value index by 0.16%, while the large-cap growth index fell by 2.71%. The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.22%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 0.94%. Sectors such as environmental protection and biomedicine performed well, while automotive and electrical equipment lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, defined as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index (EP) minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically significant levels. For instance, on April 26, 2022, the risk premium reached 4.17%, and on October 28, 2022, it was 4.08%. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4%. As of May 30, 2025, the indicator was at 3.90%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.75% [1]. Valuation Levels - As of May 30, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM was at the 50th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 61% and 48%, respectively. The ChiNext Index was close to 11%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at 30% and 32%. The ChiNext Index's valuation style is relatively low compared to historical averages [2]. Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index indicates a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets. Historical declines ranged from 40% to 45%, with the current adjustment starting in the first quarter of 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 8.5 billion yuan, with margin trading increasing by approximately 720 million yuan. The average daily trading volume across both markets was 10.687 billion yuan [4]. AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes. The latest focus is on sectors such as banking [3][10].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.02% to close at 3339.93 points, with a high of 3348.23 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.26% to 10003.27 points, reaching a peak of 10058.13 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.31% to 1985.38 points, with a maximum of 2001.95 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.21% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was the Penghua CSI 800 Free Cash Flow ETF with a return of 0.98% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was the GF CSI All-Share Energy ETF with a return of 1.07% [2] - The highest performing strategy index ETF was the Fortune CSI 800 Free Cash Flow ETF with a return of 1.37% [2] - The highest performing theme index ETF was the China Tai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF with a return of 1.42% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF (1.42%) - Fortune CSI 800 Free Cash Flow ETF (1.37%) - Jiayin Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Corporate Governance ETF (1.24%) [4][5] - The top three ETFs by decline were: - Fortune National Index Information Technology Innovation Theme ETF (-1.65%) - Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF (-1.6%) - Jianxin National Index New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF (-1.58%) [4][5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (inflow of 185 million yuan) - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF (inflow of 178 million yuan) - Guotai National Index Information Technology Innovation Theme ETF (inflow of 165 million yuan) [6][7] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (outflow of 399 million yuan) - Fortune CSI 1000 ETF (outflow of 239 million yuan) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (outflow of 197 million yuan) [6][7] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (286 million yuan) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (212 million yuan) - Huabao CSI Medical ETF (153 million yuan) [8][9] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (42.86 million yuan) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (11.59 million yuan) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (9.01 million yuan) [8][9] Institutional Insights - Huachuang Securities suggests maintaining free cash flow assets as a core holding, indicating that the investment attributes of the A-share market are enhancing [10] - Founder Securities notes that equity assets currently offer good investment value, with the A-share equity risk premium at a historically high level, recommending a focus on dividend assets and technology innovation investments [10][11]