广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看多权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向上、估值适中且 呈现资金流入状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向下。 | 资产 | 宏观分析层面观点 | 技术分析 层面观点 | 月度观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益 | 当前宏观层面整体利多权益资产 | 趋势向上 估值适中 资金流入 | 看多 | | 债券 | 当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产 | 趋势向下 | 看空 | | 黄金 | 当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产 | 趋势向上 | 看平 | | 工业品 | 当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产 | 趋势向下 | 看平 | ...

2025年，全球大类资产表现分化加剧。A股市场震荡向上站上4000点平台，大宗商品则上演"史诗级"行情，黄金、白银价格双双创下历史新高。在存款利率 持续下行、债市表现疲弱的背景下，不同理财渠道的"赚钱效应"究竟如何？ 公募基金方面，Wind数据显示，剔除年内新发和到期基金后，全市场基金2025年平均回报率为18.67%。业绩分化极为明显：业绩冠军"永赢科技智选A"收益 率高达239.78%，全年共有166只基金收益翻倍，2071只基金（占比9.56%）回报超50%。与此同时，也有1083只基金回报为负，其中不乏消费主题基金与债 券型基金。 有色金属板块领涨 2025年，A股市场整体呈现震荡上行格局。上证指数全年上涨18.41%，深证成指涨29.87%，科创50指数表现尤为突出，涨幅达35.92%。整体跑赢同期美股主 要指数。 从个股表现看，剔除年内新股后，5355只A股全年平均涨幅达38.41%。其中，538只个股实现股价翻倍，1423只个股涨幅超过50%。行业板块方面，有色金 属板块个股以80%的平均涨幅一马当先，国防军工、汽车、通信、机械设备板块紧随其后，平均涨幅均超50%。而食品饮料、煤炭、银行等板块则 ...

中国信托业协会数据显示： □截至6月末，全行业信托资产规模余额为32.43万亿元。与去年末相比增加2.87万亿元，增幅为9.73%； 与去年同期相比则增加5.43万亿元，同比大幅增长20.11% □截至6月末，证券投资信托的规模达12.48万亿元，占资金信托总规模的比例为51.09%，金额较去年末 增加1.49万亿元，较去年同期增加3.38万亿元 ◎记者 马嘉悦 信托业转型成效正加速显现。中国信托业协会数据显示，截至6月末，信托资产规模余额增至32万亿元 以上，同比大增超20%。从资金流向来看，超10万亿元信托资金涌向证券市场业内人士表示，在监管引 导下，近年来越来越多信托公司发力标品业务，大量信托资金涌入证券市场。而且，伴随着无风险收益 率的逐步下行，信托资金增配权益资产的步伐正越走越快，未来信托或将成为资本市场的重要参与者。 信托业规模首破32万亿元 中国信托业协会数据显示：截至6月末，全行业信托资产规模余额为32.43万亿元。与去年末相比增加 2.87万亿元，增幅为9.73%；与去年同期相比则增加5.43万亿元，同比大幅增长20.11%。 据公开资料，自2018年起，在市场环境变化与监管政策调整的共同作 ...

【导读】12月18日股票ETF资金净流入超127亿元 中国基金报记者 张玲 12月18日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。股票ETF市场上，资金继续加仓，当日净流入超127亿元。 宽基ETF资金净流入居前 Wind数据显示，截至12月18日，全市场1280只股票ETF（含跨境ETF，下同）总规模为4.6万亿元。从股票ETF市场资金流向来看，12月 18日基金份额增加94.06亿份；根据均价测算，净流入资金为127.64亿元。 华夏基金方面，除前述A500ETF基金外，科创50ETF资金净流入4.42亿元，最新规模达742.35亿元；中证500ETF华夏资金净流入2.17亿 元。 行业主题ETF资金净流出居前 12月18日，军工、游戏等行业主题ETF资金净流出较多。其中，军工龙头ETF资金净流出6.12亿元。 | | | 12月18日股票ETF资金净流出前15 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 净流入额 | 基金份额变化 | 最新规模 | 基金管理人 | | | | (亿元) | ( ( ( ( + ) | (亿元) | | | 5 ...

养老投资面临低利率时代挑战 之所以要重视权益投资，究其原因，与低利率的大环境息息相关。 转眼又到12月，随着一年即将结束，对于有个人养老金投资需求的投资者来说，也到了最后的配置节点，不少投资者都会规划每年12000元的税优额度。 在选择个人养老金的投资品种时，或许大家会习惯性地关注中低风险的稳健型产品。但事实上，在自身风险承受范围内，不妨适度关注风险收益更高的权益 类资产，提升相关配置比例，有助于提升养老金长期储备潜力。 环顾全球，低利率环境非一时之景。欧美等主要经济体利率中枢普遍下移，我国十年期国债收益率现在为1.85%左右。在利率下行的背景下，银行定期、理 财产品、货币基金等产品的收益率相比过去日渐走低。不少银行一年期定期存款利率已经跌破1%，货币基金的7日年化收益率也进入了"1时代"，资产的增 值速度大大放缓。 若养老资金长期投资于年化收益不足2%的产品，在经过数十年的积累后，其实际购买力很有可能因通胀的侵蚀而"缩水"。因此，在低利率的大背景下，过 度依赖传统固收类资产，可能难以达成财富增值的目标，需要寻找新的思路来提高养老投资的长期回报。 拥抱权益是重要的破局方法 适度提升权益资产的权重，是应对低利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].

市场震荡加剧，却并未扰动资金入市节奏。 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，11月超1200只私募证券投资基金完成备案，环比10月增长近30%。与此同时，截至11月21日，股票私募仓位 指数接近83%，较此前一周（11月14日）增长1.84个百分点。可见，不管是存量资金还是增量资金，都对权益资产的中长期表现抱有乐观预 期。 多位业内人士在接受记者采访时分析称，在企业盈利逐步修复，增量资金持续涌入权益市场的背景下，短期震荡后基本面能够兑现的优秀 公司有望进入新的上涨周期，调整提供了较好的布局机会。 私募11月"上新"活跃 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，11月共有1285只私募证券投资基金完成备案（包含自主发行和担任投顾的产品），较10月的994只环比增长 29.28%。拉长时间来看，这一数据不仅比10月数据更为亮眼，还与1302只的年内最高月度备案数量较为接近。 第三方平台统计数据显示，截至11月21日，股票私募仓位指数达82.97%，较此前一周上涨1.84个百分点，再次刷新年内新高。 | | | | 不同规模股票私募近一月仓位指数统计 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The equity market's confidence has gradually improved throughout the year, characterized by distinct structural trends in different phases, including AI-led trends, innovative drug sectors, and the recent strength in low-volatility dividend assets [1] Market Trends - The market has experienced significant sector rotation, with notable phases including AI dominance at the beginning of the year, innovative pharmaceuticals after April, and technology growth led by semiconductors and AI in August and September [1] - Following October, low-volatility dividend assets have shown a phase of strength, indicating a shift in investor focus [1] Investment Insights - With the decline in risk-free rates, the cost of capital has decreased, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets and increasing investor risk appetite [1] - The effectiveness of market pricing is improving, yet small-cap stocks remain under-researched, presenting more opportunities for value discovery [1] - Current market liquidity favors small and micro-cap stocks, providing numerous trading opportunities [1] - The valuation structure indicates that small and micro-cap stocks, primarily assessed by price-to-book (PB) ratios, still offer a good margin of safety compared to large-cap stocks, making them appealing from a defensive standpoint [1]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are increasingly entering the market, with Sunshine Insurance announcing a significant investment of 20 billion yuan in a pilot fund project, marking a substantial step forward for the initiative [2][3] - The trend of insurance capital accelerating its allocation to equity assets is supported by the ongoing long-term investment pilot and the decline in risk-free interest rates, prompting a reallocation of institutional assets [3][5] Group 1: Institutional Investment Trends - Sunshine Insurance's subsidiary, Sunshine Hengyi Private Fund Management Co., has completed its registration and signed a fund contract with Sunshine Life and China Merchants Bank, indicating progress in establishing a private fund [3] - Multiple insurance companies have established private fund management firms this year, including those under Taikang Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance [3] - Data from Yuny Trust shows that the issuance of equity trust products increased by over 50% month-on-month in October, while fixed-income products saw a decline [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The attractiveness of equity assets has increased due to the ongoing structural market conditions in A-shares, leading trust companies to focus more on equity products [5] - Trust companies are prioritizing "fixed income plus" products, diversifying into REITs, convertible bonds, and gold ETFs as risk-free yields decline [5] - Fund managers are optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for equity markets, driven by institutional and retail asset reallocation, alongside favorable policy signals and the rapid development of key industries in China [6]

Global Capital Market Overview - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, increasing market volatility regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.87%, reaching a current level of 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar phase [1][5] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with equity markets experiencing significant drops, particularly in A-shares, Northbound 50, and Hang Seng Technology indices [1][5] Fund Flows - As of November 19, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $318 million and domestic inflows of $3.677 billion [2][10] - Overseas active funds saw an outflow of $301 million, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $619 million [2][10] - The U.S. equity market saw substantial inflows, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors, with a total of $11.8 billion entering the equity market [2][10] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 81.9 percentile over the past decade, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but remains significantly lower than U.S. stocks in absolute terms [3][10] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35% [3][10] Market Sentiment Indicators - The S&P 500 closed at 6602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an increase in implied volatility [4][10] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginally more optimistic sentiment among investors [4][10] - In the A-share market, there was a significant increase in the open interest for call options on the CSI 300 index, reflecting high optimism for future market performance [4][10] Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data suggest a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, indicating increasing market expectations for monetary easing [5][10] - China's economic indicators show a weakening investment trend, but CPI and PPI are showing signs of marginal recovery, confirming further recovery signals [5][10]