炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：荀玉根思考 核心结论：①中国居民资配中房产占比近半，21年来固收规模大增，未来望逐步增配权益，目前权益比 例不到10%。②1982-2000年美国产业结构升级驱动美股长牛，叠加养老金制度改革，推动居民资产配 置转向权益，目前权益比例达34%。③当前中国类似1980年代初的美国，居民资配转向权益处于铺垫 期。借鉴历史规律，预计26年A股各类增量资金合计2万亿。 从居民资配变迁看资金入市 国信证券首席经济学家 荀玉根 24年924以来A股牛市徐徐展开，而国内房价调整明显，长债利率已下行到低位，市场对居民资产配置 逐步转向权益期待颇高。本文借鉴1980年代美国居民资配转向权益的历史，分析中国居民资产增配权益 的过程将如何演变。 1．中国居民资配的现况及演变趋势 全球横向比较，中国居民资产配置中房产占比偏高、权益资产占比偏低。根据国家资产负债表明细，居 民部门资产主要被划分为金融资产（如股票、基金、存款、债券等）和非金融资产（如住房资产、生产 性固定资产等）两类。 一方面，中国居民部门配置住房资产的比例明显偏高。多数经济体非金融资产中住房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance on January 29, with significant outflows from stock ETFs, totaling nearly 30 billion yuan, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from broad-based ETFs [2][4][3]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - On January 29, stock ETFs saw a net outflow of 29.86 billion yuan, with 61 ETFs recording inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The total net outflow from stock ETFs since 2026 has surpassed 750 billion yuan, highlighting a persistent trend of capital leaving this segment [3]. - The broad-based ETFs, including those tracking the CSI 300, SSE 50, and others, experienced the most significant outflows, with six ETFs seeing net outflows exceeding 5 billion yuan, and one ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in a single day [4][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the ETFs, industry-themed and commodity ETFs saw net inflows of 22.14 billion yuan and 5.39 billion yuan, respectively, while broad-based ETFs faced a net outflow of 52.02 billion yuan [4]. - The SGE Gold 9999 index recorded the highest net inflow of 4.05 billion yuan on January 29, while the CSI 300 index ETF had the largest outflow of 31.63 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Fund Management Insights - Leading fund companies, such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund, reported significant inflows in specific ETFs, with E Fund's Sci-Tech Chip ETF seeing a net inflow of 936 million yuan on January 29 [7]. - Huaxia Fund's Nonferrous Metal ETF and Gold Stock ETF led the inflows with 1.497 billion yuan and 1.335 billion yuan, respectively [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share and Hong Kong markets to maintain high trading activity levels, driven by macroeconomic stability and positive expectations for economic indicators [8]. - Despite uncertainties in global geopolitical dynamics and domestic economic challenges, the valuation levels of A-share and Hong Kong equity assets remain attractive compared to major global indices [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the transformation of the Chinese economy, highlighting that the rapid development over the past two to three decades has been the biggest investment beta [1] - It discusses the shift in industrial structure, noting that the market capitalization of the electronics industry increased from 3.7% in 2016 to 11.3% in 2025, while the banking sector's share decreased from a peak of 15.8% to 12.8%, reflecting the transition from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth in China [1] - The article points out the changing demographic structure, stating that people are the core variable in all trends [1] Group 2 - The article outlines key investment insights, including that one can never earn beyond their level of understanding, and that money made by luck will eventually be lost through lack of skill [2] - It emphasizes that the core of investing is not about how much one earns, but rather about surviving extreme situations, with risk control and position management being crucial for realizing compound returns [2] - The article states that risk and return are generally symmetrical, and to achieve higher returns, one must accept greater volatility and drawdowns [2] Group 3 - The article suggests that with economic and technological progress, equity assets will inevitably trend upwards over the long term, serving as the core vehicle for sharing value growth [2] - It highlights that the certainty in investing is not about the probability of making money, but rather about reducing vulnerability when risks materialize [2] - The article asserts that stock prices will fluctuate around their intrinsic value but will ultimately converge towards it over the long term [2] Group 4 - The article provides actionable advice, recommending that investors choose investment methods they can tolerate, referencing Nobel laureate Markowitz's assertion that diversification is the only free lunch in investing [2] - It encourages finding investment products that one can manage effectively [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a "good start" in January 2026, coinciding with a surge in the public fund issuance market, with 91 new funds scheduled for launch, marking a record high for the same period [1] - Equity funds led the way with 36 new offerings, indicating institutional optimism towards equity assets [1] - FOF (Fund of Funds) funds showed particularly strong performance, with 3 newly established products raising over 6 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70% of the total issuance that month, reflecting robust demand for asset allocation products among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 emphasizes structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the "fixed income +" sector, which is expected to face more opportunities than challenges under supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The core drivers of China's economic growth in 2026 are expected to be diverse, primarily supported by consumption growth and stable investment [2]. - Continued expansionary fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies are anticipated to reinforce economic stability and growth [2]. - Potential risks to the macroeconomic environment include external trade relations and pressures in the real estate market [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in "Fixed Income +" - The "fixed income +" sector is viewed as having more opportunities than challenges, with a focus on differentiated investment strategies [3]. - Emphasis on equity assets (including convertible bonds) is expected to outperform traditional bonds, with strategies to enhance returns through market timing and asset selection [3]. - Key sectors for investment include finance, construction, materials, chemicals, and renewable energy, which are expected to offer good investment value in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Product Offerings and Strategies - The company has developed a comprehensive product line catering to various risk preferences, including low-risk and growth-oriented investment solutions [5][6]. - Specific products highlighted include low-volatility options like Penghua Fengze and Penghua Yongsheng, as well as mid-volatility products like Penghua Shuangzhai Baoli [5]. - The focus on quantitative strategies aims to balance equity and bond allocations dynamically, with products designed for long-term growth and stability [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Professional Management - In a volatile market environment, "fixed income +" products are positioned as a quality choice for balancing risk and return [5]. - The professional management team is expected to leverage their expertise to navigate market fluctuations and optimize investment outcomes for clients [6]. - The commitment to continuous development in niche areas and enhanced product offerings is aimed at supporting investors in the evolving investment landscape of 2026 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that economic conditions are expected to improve gradually in the first quarter of 2026 due to proactive fiscal policies and the low base effect in the second half of 2025 [1] - Risk assets, particularly equities with relatively low volatility, are considered to have better cost-effectiveness in the current market environment [1] - Overall asset allocation faces challenges such as increased volatility and narrowing expected returns for certain assets, leading to recommendations for diversified risk management strategies [1] Group 2 - For low-risk preference investors, a diversified asset allocation is suggested to mitigate risks [1] - Mid to high-risk preference investors are advised to slightly overweight their stock allocations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities, a bearish stance on bonds and gold, and a mixed view on industrial products [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities are favored in the current macroeconomic environment, with a positive outlook supported by favorable macro indicators [2][7]. - Bonds are viewed negatively, with macroeconomic conditions suggesting a bearish trend [2][7]. - Gold is also seen as unfavorable from a macro perspective, despite a positive technical trend [2][7]. - Industrial products are supported by macroeconomic factors, although the technical trend is currently downward [2][7]. Technical Analysis - The technical indicators show an upward trend for equities and gold, while bonds and industrial products are trending downward [12][13]. - The latest technical scores indicate that equities have a positive trend score, while bonds and industrial products have negative scores [13]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data shows that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 12.10% for 2025, with an annualized return of 10.22% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity strategies also demonstrated returns of 14.94% and 7.90%, respectively, since April 2006 [3][31]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy involves a fixed ratio for equities, bonds, commodities, and cash, with adjustments based on macro and technical signals [24][25]. - The historical performance of the asset allocation strategies indicates that the combination of macro and technical indicators has been effective in enhancing returns while managing risk [28][31].

Market Performance - In 2025, the A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index by 35.92%, outperforming major US stock indices during the same period [1] - The average increase for 5,355 A-shares, excluding newly listed stocks, was 38.41%, with 538 stocks doubling in price and 1,423 stocks increasing by over 50% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market with an average increase of 80%, followed by defense, automotive, telecommunications, and machinery sectors, all exceeding 50% [1] Fund Performance - Public funds achieved an average return of 18.67% in 2025, with significant performance disparities; the top-performing fund, "Yongying Technology Smart A," recorded a return of 239.78% [2] - A total of 166 funds doubled their returns, while 2,071 funds (9.56%) exceeded 50% returns, contrasting with 1,083 funds that reported negative returns, including many consumer-themed and bond funds [2][3] Bank Wealth Management - Bank wealth management products faced pressure, with an average annualized return of only 2.23% due to a weak bond market and declining fixed-income asset yields [4] - The average annualized returns for equity, mixed, and fixed-income products were 6.84%, 4.76%, and 2.11%, respectively, with cash management products dropping to an average seven-day annualized yield of 1.26% [4] Commodity Market - Commodities, particularly precious metals, were the standout asset class in 2025, with COMEX gold rising by 64.9% and COMEX silver soaring by 159.53% [6] - Commodity-focused public funds achieved an average return of 51.15%, with gold ETFs also yielding over 50% returns [8] Interest Rates and Savings - Deposit rates continued to decline, with major banks initiating a "rate cut wave" in May 2025, leading to a general drop of 15-25 basis points across various term deposits [7] - The mainstream deposit rates have entered the "1 era," with some long-term deposit rates falling below those of shorter terms, indicating a trend of funds shifting from fixed-income assets to diversified equity and commodity investments [7]

Core Insights - The trust industry in China has seen significant growth, with total trust assets reaching 32.43 trillion yuan by the end of June, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.11% [1][2] - The shift towards asset management and service trusts has become the dominant business model, replacing traditional financing and channel trusts [2] Group 1: Industry Growth - As of June, the total trust asset scale increased by 2.87 trillion yuan compared to the end of last year, reflecting a growth rate of 9.73% [1][2] - The trust asset scale has rebounded from a low of 20.49 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to a historical peak of over 32 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - By June, the balance of asset management trusts was approximately 24.43 trillion yuan, accounting for 75.33% of total trust assets [3] - Securities investment trusts reached 12.48 trillion yuan, representing 51.09% of the total scale of fund trusts, with an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan from the end of last year [4] Group 3: Shift to Securities Market - Trust funds have increasingly flowed into the securities market, with the proportion of securities investment trusts rising from 34.34% at the end of 2022 to 51.09% by mid-2025 [4] - The interest in equity assets has grown, with trust funds allocated to the stock market increasing to 0.78 trillion yuan, up from 0.72 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [7] Group 4: Company Strategies - Several trust companies have reported a trend towards increasing securities asset allocation, with notable growth in their asset management product offerings [5] - The diversification of financial instruments in the securities market and the deepening transformation of the trust industry have made securities assets a competitive focus for trust companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - On December 18, the A-share market saw mixed performance among the three major indices, while the stock ETF market experienced a net inflow of over 12.7 billion yuan [2]. Group 1: Stock ETF Market Overview - As of December 18, the total scale of 1,280 stock ETFs in the market reached 4.6 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 12.764 billion yuan on that day [4]. - The increase in fund shares amounted to 9.406 billion units, with broad-based ETFs leading the inflow at 9.4 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI A500 Index ETF had the highest net inflow of 5.293 billion yuan, contributing to a total of over 30.8 billion yuan in the last five trading days [4]. Group 2: Top Performing ETFs - On December 18, 37 ETFs saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the top three being: - E Fund's ChiNext ETF: 1.936 billion yuan - Huatai-PB's A500 ETF: 1.854 billion yuan - Huaxia Fund's A500 ETF: 1.620 billion yuan [5]. - Other notable inflows included the Securities Insurance ETF with 507 million yuan and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF with 442 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific ETF Performance - The military and gaming sector ETFs experienced significant net outflows, with the Military Leaders ETF seeing a net outflow of 612 million yuan [8]. - The top outflowing ETFs included: - Military Leaders ETF: -612 million yuan - Military ETF: -317 million yuan - CSI 1000 ETF: -229 million yuan [9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Fund managers from E Fund believe that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still hold significant valuation appeal compared to similar markets, with increasing attractiveness for long-term capital allocation [10]. - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund anticipates a volatile upward trend in the A-share market driven by profit recovery, capital allocation, and policy support, recommending investment in core assets of the Chinese economy [10].