这个是从5月初到现在为止出现的这种反转交易有可能它的力量是不是已经达到了一个顶点有点透支这个也值得警惕那么对于国内市场和对于国外市场特别是美国市场来说可能都是如此我们先来看一下美国市场也就是海外市场美国股市在上周五的时候虽然仍然在收涨但是疑虑情绪是在加大的我们说不排除美国股票市场在未来的一段时间里面陷入到第二次向下的大幅调整过程 首先看一条新闻就是慕迪这家美国评级公司对于美国政府的主权信用评级做了下调这个评级到现在为止调完了也是优等生但是已经告别了最高级别的3A等级这个背后反映出来是一个深深的疑虑就是对于美国资产到底价值几何是不是给出一个比较高的分数这个又会间接的导致很多的资金对于美元资产的配置到底要加仓还是减仓评级下降肯定是一个负面的考虑因素了 这个评级下降它的导火索就是大家对于美国债务问题的担心这个事情已经是由来已久这个深水炸弹一直没有爆掉但是它的规模还在继续的扩大这种隐忧也会导致一系列的一连串的影响要知道说这件事情已经呼应了前几周大家看到的奇怪现象就是美元资产出现三杀,股债会三跌这个背后也是因为美元债务这个问题迟迟得不到解决 这个事情不光是外界知道美国自己的决策层也深深的担心大家看到特朗普上台了之后一个 ...

每天十分钟 拆解新闻背后的逻辑大家好 今天是2025年的5月28号星期三我是赌小姐今天的国内市场的情绪仍然比较低整体市场的机会是比较缺乏的我们对于国内和国外两个市场的观点没有发生方向性的变化所以时间紧张的朋友可以把今天的内容跳过去首先我们看一下国内市场 护士粮食的成交量现在是一个非常关键的指标它是市场情绪的体现今天在最后收盘前的一分钟这个成交量是艰难的守住了1万亿但是说实话1万亿在目前这么大的一个盘子之下是比较低的一个水平说明整体市场的情绪是逐步下滑的那么三大指数也在这种压力之下微微收跌未来一段时间个人理解在没有重大好消息的情况之下它仍然可能 延续震荡的模式跟内地市场相对比香港市场的麻烦会更大一点我们看到它的成交量收缩会更明显这个实际上在前几天我们就给大家提示过风险香港市场现在面对的好像不仅仅是一个简单的震荡它好像流动性或者资金的态度上面出现了一个坎出现了一些问题所以香港市场当中整体的跌幅要比内地会更大一点 尤其是一些指标性的概念性的赛道就前段时间炒的闪亮亮站在C位的一些赛道那么现在也是脑袋上被浇了一盆水就是今天大家看到的新消费这个赛道一些潮玩一些龙头是出现了超过6%以上的跌幅那么这种情况这个故事好像在前几天 ...

广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看平权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向下、估值偏低且 呈现资金流入状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向上； 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上。 资产配置组合表现跟踪： 从组合的历史表现来看，根据Wind数据测算，2025年6月固定比例+宏观指标+技术指标组合的收益率 1.06%；2006年4月至今，该组合的年化收益率为11.86%，年化波动率为6.96%，最大回撤为9.06%； 2025年6月波动率控制+宏观指标+技术指标组合、风险平价+宏观指标+技术指标组合的收益率分别为 0.99%、0.62%；2006年4月至今，两个组合的年化收益率分别为9.33%、9.65%，年化波 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased caution among institutional and individual investors regarding gold asset allocation, particularly with a notable outflow from gold ETFs [1][5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a decline from May 7 to May 19, with the London spot gold price reaching a high of $3345.4 per ounce on May 22, marking a 3.31% increase from May 20 to 22 [2][3] - The previous two weeks saw a significant drop of 5.88%, with prices falling to a low of $3120.2 per ounce [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing cautious attitude among investors towards gold, as evidenced by a shift from net inflows to net outflows in gold ETFs since April 22, with a notable outflow of 31 billion yuan from nine out of thirteen ETFs from May 1 to 22 [6][7] - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more bearish outlook, with increased short positions in gold and a decrease in long positions [6][7] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term demand for gold remains strong due to ongoing global economic uncertainties, inflation expectations, and central bank policies [4][8] - Analysts suggest that the fundamental logic supporting gold as an investment has not changed, and long-term capital continues to flow into gold-related assets [8] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical risks, including the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and tensions in the Middle East, have provided support for gold prices [3][4] - The potential for a "global capital flow transformation" has been noted, as investors shift from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and bonds to gold [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to market divergence, with experts emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency devaluation rather than a short-term trading tool [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have reached over 60 historical highs, with more than 20 records set in 2025 alone, despite a recent pullback to around $3,200 per ounce, resulting in an approximate 60% increase in the market so far [1]. - The World Gold Council's analysis indicates that central bank purchases contributed over 10% to the short-term price fluctuations, while geopolitical risk factors accounted for 9% [1]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in gold ETFs contributed approximately 5.6% to the price increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The demand for gold has been bolstered by increasing central bank purchases and the growth of domestic gold-related ETFs, which have expanded from around 70 billion yuan to nearly 150 billion yuan [2]. - Historical data shows that gold has delivered an annualized return of nearly 9% over the past 50 years, with recent trends of de-dollarization and rising tariffs further enhancing its appeal as an investment [2]. - Experts note that gold, unlike traditional currencies, does not generate interest or dividends, making its value dependent on the next buyer's willingness to pay [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is characterized by high volatility and a complex set of influencing factors, with geopolitical risks providing upward pressure on prices [3]. - Historical trends suggest that while gold prices may rise in the long term, they can also experience significant corrections, as seen after the Bretton Woods system collapse [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]

5月1日，"中国金王"紫金矿业（601899.SH，股价17.76元，市值4720亿元）宣布，拟通过分拆方式推动 境外黄金矿山资产在香港联交所主板上市。5月8日，新任港股"股王"老铺黄金（06181.HK，股价667港 元，市值1123亿港元）宣布拟筹资净额约27亿港元。 无论是紫金矿业还是老铺黄金，其近期的资本运作均在资本市场引起不小的波澜。 紫金矿业在已经实现A+H股上市情况下，为何再度分拆子公司至港股上市？就相关事宜，5月13日下 午，《每日经济新闻》记者致电公司证券部门，但电话未能接通。 值得一提的是，紫金矿业早已实现A+H股上市，而老铺黄金此次募资距离IPO（首次公开募股）还未满 一年。就两家企业近期的资本运作，5月13日，多位资本市场人士向《每日经济新闻》记者分析称，国 际金价大幅上涨，使得黄金资产的估值现阶段更高。 十天内两家头部企业相继出手 官网资料显示，紫金矿业是一家大型跨国矿业集团，主要在全球范围内从事铜、金、锌、锂、银、钼等 金属矿产资源勘查、开发和矿业工程研究、设计及应用等。紫金矿业早已实现A+H股上市，公司2024 年年报中的一系列数据也可以说明这家老牌巨头的"江湖"地位：近5年矿产 ...