Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment and price increase due to rising futures prices, production cuts from major northern manufacturers, and increased demand from polysilicon [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Industrial silicon futures have shown significant upward momentum since June 23, hovering around 8000 yuan/ton recently [1] - Major northern manufacturers are not meeting production resumption expectations and have begun to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [1] - Although some manufacturers in the southwest region are resuming production due to lower electricity prices, overall market prices remain unsatisfactory, with operating rates significantly below previous years [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - Inventory has been gradually decreasing since April, indicating a basic balance between supply and demand; as of July 3, 2025, industrial silicon warehouse inventory stood at 259,300 tons, down 54,200 tons in one month [1] - The supply side still has potential for growth, but limited by low operating rates in the southwest and production cuts from major manufacturers [1] - Demand is slightly increasing due to the resumption of polysilicon production, high operating rates in organosilicon, and stable demand for aluminum alloys, suggesting a continued state of supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The production cut plans from major manufacturers and the expected resumption of polysilicon production are boosting market sentiment [1] - Continuous monitoring of production changes from major manufacturers and shifts in downstream demand is essential, with expectations of slight price increases [1]

Group 1 - From February 2025, industrial silicon spot and futures prices have begun a new downward trend, with prices falling below 9600 yuan/ton in April due to weak fundamentals and slow destocking [1] - As of the third week of May, the average cost of industrial silicon per ton was 10,479.59 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.69%, with a negative gross profit of 924.49 yuan per ton [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative production of industrial silicon reached 906,800 tons, a decrease of 7.78 million tons or 7.90% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The demand side lacks growth momentum, with the organic silicon market experiencing continuous price declines and high inventory levels, leading to a reduced operating rate of 69.7% among 16 organic silicon enterprises [4] - The total demand for industrial silicon in the first quarter is estimated at 945,800 tons, a decrease of nearly 250,000 tons compared to last year [2][4] - The overall inventory of industrial silicon and downstream products continues to rise, with industrial silicon futures inventory at 331,900 tons, an increase of 4.90% month-on-month and 25.25% year-on-year [5] Group 3 - The supply pressure in the long term is highlighted by the seasonal production off-peak in Sichuan and Yunnan, with a combined production of 1,026,500 tons in 2024, accounting for 21.84% of the national total [3] - The overall macro drivers for the industrial silicon market are weak, with the pricing logic dominated by fundamentals, and the expected production in May is around 320,000 tons, significantly higher than the 632,000 tons needed for supply-demand balance [6] - The current inventory-to-consumption ratio has risen to 2.42, indicating a significant oversupply situation [5]