12月10日，国内期市有色金属板块互有涨跌。其中，工业硅期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力 合约小幅下挫1.54%，报8305.0元/吨。 现货方面，据光大期货介绍，9日百川工业硅现货参考价9603元/吨，较上一交易日下调45元/吨。最低 交割品#421价格跌至8850元/吨，现货升水扩至510元/吨。 供应方面，兴业期货分析称，供应端产量变化不大，南方开工率处于低位，北方厂家产量小幅提高，现 阶段变量主要取决于大厂开工情况的变动。 需求方面，铜冠金源期货指出，电池片上周跌势放缓，头部一体化企业12月加大减产力度，市场决策存 在分化，需求端加快收紧；组件企业成品库存下相对稳定，但临近年底集中式装机实际需求出现下滑， 国内企业中标省市级光伏项目数量下滑，上周中标总采购容量为1232.8MW，环比下滑345.7MW。 展望后市，中信建投（601066）期货认为，在成本支撑削弱下，硅价或有一定下行空间，但预计后市煤 价或逐步企稳，工业硅下行空间或相对有限。 ...

Core Insights - The industrial silicon market has seen a slight increase in prices due to supply constraints and cost support, but weak demand remains a concern for future price movements [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Supply from the southwestern region continues to decrease, tightening the market and supporting prices; Inner Mongolia's stable output is affected by raw material supply issues, leading to potential price increases; Gansu's slight production cut due to rising costs also supports prices; in Xinjiang, rising costs from electricity, silicon coal, and transportation due to weather are pushing prices up [2][3] Demand Analysis - Demand from three core consumption sectors shows divergence: - The organic silicon sector has seen prices rise from 11,000 CNY/ton to 11,200 CNY/ton, supported by firm pricing intentions and pre-sale orders, despite overall production cuts reducing actual procurement needs [2] - The polysilicon sector maintains a weak and stable price environment, with ongoing production cuts limiting demand for industrial silicon [2] - The aluminum alloy sector benefits from a positive trend in the automotive manufacturing market, with prices rising from 21,095 CNY/ton to 21,135 CNY/ton, indicating steady growth in demand for industrial silicon [2] Price Movements - From November 6 to November 12, the main contract price for industrial silicon increased from 9,065 CNY/ton to 9,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 130 CNY/ton; the national average price on November 12 was 9,207 CNY/ton, up 33 CNY/ton [1][3] - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw price increases: 553 rose by 49 CNY/ton to 8,757 CNY/ton, 441 increased by 37 CNY/ton to 9,092 CNY/ton, and 421 went up by 14 CNY/ton to 9,672 CNY/ton [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in industrial silicon prices is primarily supported by cost factors and optimistic demand expectations, despite a tight supply-demand balance in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon rose from 8905 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, an increase of 115 CNY/ton during the week of September 18 to September 24 [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon reached 9207 CNY/ton, up by 31 CNY/ton from the previous week [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw varied price changes: 553 at 8757 CNY/ton (+49 CNY/ton), 441 at 9092 CNY/ton (unchanged), and 421 at 9672 CNY/ton (+14 CNY/ton) [1]. Supply Factors - The upcoming dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to lead to rising electricity prices, which, along with anticipated increases in silicon coal prices, is strengthening producers' willingness to maintain higher prices [2]. - Although this situation is contributing to inventory accumulation, it is also providing strong support for prices [2]. Demand Factors - Organic silicon companies are showing intentions to raise prices due to short-term impacts from southern weather conditions [2]. - Despite strong pricing in the polysilicon market, its actual demand pull remains limited, with companies still in a wait-and-see mode regarding production resumption [2]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of negotiation between upstream and downstream players, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [2]. - The situation of strong expectations but weak realities has not fundamentally changed, but it is anticipated that the arrival of the dry season will exacerbate cost increases and supply-demand tensions [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent industrial silicon prices are influenced by supply-side policies, with market sentiment rising due to rumors of potential environmental production limits in Xinjiang and strict quality control of industrial silicon warehouse receipts [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon production costs are increasing despite a decrease in quartzite prices, driven by rising prices of petroleum coke and premium coal [1] - There has been no significant progress in supply-side reforms for industrial silicon, and without production constraints, high prices may stimulate a rebound in production [1] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon has been strong, driven by high prices of polysilicon stimulating production and pre-holiday stocking needs [1] - The complete cost of industrial silicon has shifted to a range of 8,800-9,300 yuan/ton, which may serve as a central axis for price fluctuations [1] Market Outlook - Despite the upward shift in industrial silicon prices, the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation due to limited terminal demand and a significant amount of new production capacity awaiting commissioning [1]

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Military Support - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that multiple European countries are developing specific plans to send troops to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - A multinational force led by Europe, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands, is being discussed, with the U.S. providing support in command control systems, intelligence, and surveillance [1] - The EU is exploring new financing channels to provide sustainable funding for the Ukrainian military, including a €150 billion arms procurement fund for joint production with Ukrainian defense companies [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Trends - Industrial silicon futures continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 8390 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 4.06% [5] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakening market confidence and basic supply-demand pressures, as well as a decrease in macroeconomic sentiment [5][6] - The operating rate of metal silicon enterprises increased to 36.8%, with a notable rise in production from the northwest region [6] - Despite concerns about potential demand reduction due to price increases, the current demand from the polysilicon sector remains stable, with production expected to exceed 130,000 tons in August [6][7] - The overall market is experiencing a destocking trend, with social inventory decreasing to 541,000 tons [7] - Future price trends for industrial silicon may face downward pressure due to increased supply and potential demand reduction from downstream polysilicon production [7]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract reported at 8610.0 yuan, down 0.17% [1] Group 1: Institutional Perspectives - Wenkang Futures expects industrial silicon prices to operate weakly with a downward support at 8000 yuan/ton, while monitoring production recovery in major regions [1] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the dual increase in supply and demand supports a stronger price for industrial silicon, influenced by the recovery in profits and operating rates in the organic silicon and polysilicon sectors [1] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures anticipates a wide fluctuation in the short-term trend of industrial silicon, with limited supply-demand contradictions but high inventory levels exerting upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to a cooling market sentiment and price drop [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon dropped from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025. The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - The FOB price decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, production in northern regions remains stable, with a slight increase in large factory operations. Southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is slightly increasing, with higher operating rates in organic silicon monomer plants and some recovery plans in multi-crystalline silicon production lines. Overall, the demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the slight increase in demand, the overall market sentiment is cooling, and the industry is facing pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market experienced a price rebound in July 2025, with complex supply and demand dynamics influencing the market [1] Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon reached 9,164 CNY/ton, a 15.60% increase from 7,927 CNY/ton on July 1 [1] - Supply decreased in July due to a major factory in Xinjiang reducing production for nearly a month, with a resumption in late July; however, production increases in Yunnan and Sichuan were limited [1] - The overall industrial silicon production is expected to slightly increase next month, with a monthly output forecasted to exceed 340,000 tons [1] Demand Side - A major organic silicon enterprise reduced operational load due to equipment maintenance, leading to decreased monthly demand [1] - The polysilicon sector saw a slight increase in operating rates due to policy guidance, which is favorable for the market [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is in a low season, resulting in demand-driven procurement [1] Export Dynamics - In June, exports totaled 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.77% and a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [1] - From January to June, total exports reached 340,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, which negatively impacts demand [1] Cost and Profitability - In July, the prices of key materials increased, pushing costs higher; however, the overall profit margin for industrial silicon widened due to price increases outpacing cost rises [1] - Standard warehouse inventory has been largely depleted, but industry inventory remains at historically high levels [1] Market Outlook - The market is characterized by "strong expectations, weak realities," with short-term fluctuations driven by policy and market sentiment [1] - Long-term supply-demand contradictions remain unresolved, with production resumption in the southwest imminent [1] - Strategies include wide fluctuations in futures contracts and selling out-of-the-money put options for inventory protection [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable during the past week, with a slight increase in futures prices, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and market rebound [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The main contract closing price fluctuated between 8010 yuan/ton and 8140 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.62% [1] - Major manufacturers in the northern region are maintaining stable production without plans for further resumption, while some southern region companies are restarting production during the abundant water period, leading to an overall increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, resulting in a lack of trading activity [1] - The organic silicon monomer plants are operating steadily, with expectations for increased production and demand for industrial silicon [1] - The overall operating conditions for polysilicon remain stable, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is also maintaining stable operations, supporting consistent demand for industrial silicon [1] Price Trends - The overall inventory in the industrial silicon industry is gradually decreasing, with previous market prices experiencing a slight increase due to futures market influences [1] - Despite the slight price increase, the overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, and the supply-demand fundamentals are still weak [1] - It is anticipated that spot prices will continue to fluctuate within a bottom range, with limited upward potential [1]