整体而言，本周工业硅市场上下游仍处于博弈阶段，市场供需依旧呈现紧平衡态 势，强预期弱现实的局面未发生根本性改变。但预计未来随着枯水期的来临，成本上 涨以及市场供需紧张的局面将愈发显著。 本周工业硅期货价格有所回升。在过去一周（ 9 月 18 日至 9 月 24 日），主力合约 2511 收盘价从 8905 元 / 吨震荡上行至 9020 元 / 吨，累计上涨 115 元 / 吨。同时，根据 安泰科采集价格统计，全国工业硅综合价格 9207 元 / 吨，较上周上涨 31 元 / 吨。分牌 号来看， 553# 工业硅价格为 8757 元 / 吨，上涨 49 元 / 吨； 441# 工业硅价格为 9092 元 / 吨，与上周持平； 421# 工业硅价格为 9672 元 / 吨，上涨 14 元 / 吨。地区方面，新 疆、云南和四川的工业硅综合价格分别为 8848 元 / 吨、 9753 元 / 吨和 9950 元 / 吨。 FOB 价格与上周持平。 成本支撑与乐观需求预期是支撑本周工业硅现货价格小幅上扬的主要因素。供应层 面：四川和云南地区即将步入枯水期，电价上涨势在必行，加之硅煤价格存在上涨预 期，生产企业的挺价意 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent industrial silicon prices are influenced by supply-side policies, with market sentiment rising due to rumors of potential environmental production limits in Xinjiang and strict quality control of industrial silicon warehouse receipts [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon production costs are increasing despite a decrease in quartzite prices, driven by rising prices of petroleum coke and premium coal [1] - There has been no significant progress in supply-side reforms for industrial silicon, and without production constraints, high prices may stimulate a rebound in production [1] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon has been strong, driven by high prices of polysilicon stimulating production and pre-holiday stocking needs [1] - The complete cost of industrial silicon has shifted to a range of 8,800-9,300 yuan/ton, which may serve as a central axis for price fluctuations [1] Market Outlook - Despite the upward shift in industrial silicon prices, the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation due to limited terminal demand and a significant amount of new production capacity awaiting commissioning [1]

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Military Support - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that multiple European countries are developing specific plans to send troops to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - A multinational force led by Europe, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands, is being discussed, with the U.S. providing support in command control systems, intelligence, and surveillance [1] - The EU is exploring new financing channels to provide sustainable funding for the Ukrainian military, including a €150 billion arms procurement fund for joint production with Ukrainian defense companies [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Trends - Industrial silicon futures continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 8390 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 4.06% [5] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakening market confidence and basic supply-demand pressures, as well as a decrease in macroeconomic sentiment [5][6] - The operating rate of metal silicon enterprises increased to 36.8%, with a notable rise in production from the northwest region [6] - Despite concerns about potential demand reduction due to price increases, the current demand from the polysilicon sector remains stable, with production expected to exceed 130,000 tons in August [6][7] - The overall market is experiencing a destocking trend, with social inventory decreasing to 541,000 tons [7] - Future price trends for industrial silicon may face downward pressure due to increased supply and potential demand reduction from downstream polysilicon production [7]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract reported at 8610.0 yuan, down 0.17% [1] Group 1: Institutional Perspectives - Wenkang Futures expects industrial silicon prices to operate weakly with a downward support at 8000 yuan/ton, while monitoring production recovery in major regions [1] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the dual increase in supply and demand supports a stronger price for industrial silicon, influenced by the recovery in profits and operating rates in the organic silicon and polysilicon sectors [1] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures anticipates a wide fluctuation in the short-term trend of industrial silicon, with limited supply-demand contradictions but high inventory levels exerting upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to a cooling market sentiment and price drop [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon dropped from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025. The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - The FOB price decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, production in northern regions remains stable, with a slight increase in large factory operations. Southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is slightly increasing, with higher operating rates in organic silicon monomer plants and some recovery plans in multi-crystalline silicon production lines. Overall, the demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the slight increase in demand, the overall market sentiment is cooling, and the industry is facing pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market experienced a price rebound in July 2025, with complex supply and demand dynamics influencing the market [1] Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon reached 9,164 CNY/ton, a 15.60% increase from 7,927 CNY/ton on July 1 [1] - Supply decreased in July due to a major factory in Xinjiang reducing production for nearly a month, with a resumption in late July; however, production increases in Yunnan and Sichuan were limited [1] - The overall industrial silicon production is expected to slightly increase next month, with a monthly output forecasted to exceed 340,000 tons [1] Demand Side - A major organic silicon enterprise reduced operational load due to equipment maintenance, leading to decreased monthly demand [1] - The polysilicon sector saw a slight increase in operating rates due to policy guidance, which is favorable for the market [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is in a low season, resulting in demand-driven procurement [1] Export Dynamics - In June, exports totaled 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.77% and a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [1] - From January to June, total exports reached 340,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, which negatively impacts demand [1] Cost and Profitability - In July, the prices of key materials increased, pushing costs higher; however, the overall profit margin for industrial silicon widened due to price increases outpacing cost rises [1] - Standard warehouse inventory has been largely depleted, but industry inventory remains at historically high levels [1] Market Outlook - The market is characterized by "strong expectations, weak realities," with short-term fluctuations driven by policy and market sentiment [1] - Long-term supply-demand contradictions remain unresolved, with production resumption in the southwest imminent [1] - Strategies include wide fluctuations in futures contracts and selling out-of-the-money put options for inventory protection [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable during the past week, with a slight increase in futures prices, influenced by exchange rate fluctuations and market rebound [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The main contract closing price fluctuated between 8010 yuan/ton and 8140 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.62% [1] - Major manufacturers in the northern region are maintaining stable production without plans for further resumption, while some southern region companies are restarting production during the abundant water period, leading to an overall increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, resulting in a lack of trading activity [1] - The organic silicon monomer plants are operating steadily, with expectations for increased production and demand for industrial silicon [1] - The overall operating conditions for polysilicon remain stable, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy industry is also maintaining stable operations, supporting consistent demand for industrial silicon [1] Price Trends - The overall inventory in the industrial silicon industry is gradually decreasing, with previous market prices experiencing a slight increase due to futures market influences [1] - Despite the slight price increase, the overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, and the supply-demand fundamentals are still weak [1] - It is anticipated that spot prices will continue to fluctuate within a bottom range, with limited upward potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices remained stable over the past week, with minor fluctuations observed in the market, indicating a cautious but improving market sentiment [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Industrial silicon manufacturers are producing according to plan, with slight production increases from the Southwest region due to some resumption of operations and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand side: There is an expected increase in operating rates for organic silicon monomer plants in northern regions, which will boost demand for industrial silicon. Additionally, there is a slight increase in operating rates for polysilicon plants, maintaining demand for industrial silicon. Aluminum alloy plants are operating normally, keeping demand stable [1]. Price Dynamics - The overall market for industrial silicon remains under pressure, with prices expected to continue fluctuating within a lower range due to increased supply and limited demand growth. Organic silicon monomer plants are facing inventory pressure, leading to competitive pricing and price declines. The drop in silicon wafer prices has also contributed to a negative sentiment in polysilicon procurement, further impacting prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot price remains stable, with a recent increase in the main contract price by 5.96% from 7135 CNY/ton to 7560 CNY/ton, indicating a slight market recovery despite cautious downstream purchasing behavior [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply has increased due to the onset of the flood season, with some silicon factories in the south resuming production alongside new capacity coming online and previously halted production restarting [1] - Demand from downstream sectors shows a slight increase, with organic silicon monomer plants operating at high levels, maintaining stable demand for industrial silicon; polysilicon plants have stable operations, and aluminum alloy plants are purchasing based on demand [1] - Overall demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon has increased [1] Price Dynamics - The market for organic silicon monomer plants is well-supplied with sufficient inventory, but weak downstream demand is causing price pressure, leading to a downward shift in price levels; polysilicon spot prices have also declined [1] - Recent inflows of industrial silicon warehouse receipts have led to a slight decrease in inventory, but overall inventory levels remain high, exerting pressure on the spot market [1] - With the reduction in electricity prices during the flood season in the south, cost support has weakened further; however, current prices are below production costs, limiting further downside potential, and prices are expected to remain within a bottom range of fluctuation [1]