Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The stock index futures may shift to a volatile pattern [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information 1. Index Futures Data - On July 23, the monthly contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.27%, IH rose 0.46%, IC rose 0.07%, and IM rose 0.01% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded. IF increased by 13,706 lots, IH by 7,078 lots, IC by 12,645 lots, and IM by 19,443 lots. In terms of positions, IF's total position increased by 1,510 lots, IH decreased by 1,022 lots, IC increased by 2,910 lots, and IM increased by 9,947 lots [1][2] 2. Basis of Index Futures - The report presents the basis trends of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 27 to July 23 through charts [4] 3. Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - In the IF series, IF2508's long - position decreased by 56 lots, and short - position decreased by 892 lots; IF2509's long - position decreased by 1,337 lots, and short - position decreased by 515 lots; IF2512's long - position increased by 515 lots, and short - position increased by 553 lots [5] - In the IH series, IH2508's long - position decreased by 569 lots, and short - position decreased by 476 lots; IH2509's long - position decreased by 1,610 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,337 lots; IH2512's long - position increased by 110 lots, and short - position increased by 137 lots [5] - In the IC series, IC2508's long - position decreased by 2,175 lots, and short - position decreased by 1,925 lots; IC2509's long - position increased by 997 lots, and short - position increased by 870 lots; IC2512's long - position increased by 1,088 lots, and short - position increased by 1,539 lots [5] - In the IM series, IM2508's long - position increased by 2,420 lots, and short - position increased by 2,410 lots; IM2509's long - position increased by 4,084 lots, and short - position increased by 2,791 lots; IM2512's long - position increased by 1,568 lots, and short - position increased by 2,056 lots [5] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] - Important drivers include: He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30; the spot price of industrial silicon rose significantly this week, with the main contract's closing price rising from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%. A - share trading volume was 1.9 trillion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in industrial silicon spot prices is attributed to improved macro sentiment and strong demand from downstream polysilicon, influenced by favorable policies [1] Price Movement - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon increased from 8745 yuan/ton to 9525 yuan/ton over the past week, representing a rise of 8.92% [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shown a significant recovery, contributing to the upward trend in industrial silicon prices [1] Downstream Influence - The bullish sentiment in the polysilicon market, driven by policy impacts, has positively affected the prices of raw materials, including industrial silicon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant increase in industrial silicon prices is driven by improved market sentiment and downstream demand, although the acceptance of rapid price increases by downstream sectors remains limited [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The main contract price for industrial silicon rose from 8745 CNY/ton to 9525 CNY/ton, an increase of 8.92% during the week of July 17-23, 2025 [1]. - The national average price reached 9378 CNY/ton, up by 527 CNY/ton, with specific grades showing price increases: 553 grade at 9202 CNY/ton (+600 CNY/ton), 441 grade at 8852 CNY/ton (+500 CNY/ton), and 421 grade at 9785 CNY/ton (+360 CNY/ton) [1]. - FOB prices increased by 25-90 USD/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side factors include the resumption of production at northern major plants and increased production plans in southern regions due to positive price impacts [1]. - Demand-side factors show a slight decrease in industrial silicon demand due to unexpected maintenance at a single unit in Shandong, while the operating rate of polysilicon plants has slightly increased, stabilizing overall demand from the three major downstream sectors [1]. - Despite the price increase, the downstream sectors' acceptance of rapid price hikes is limited, and industry inventory pressures remain, suggesting limited upward price potential for industrial silicon [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment and price increase due to rising futures prices, production cuts from major northern manufacturers, and increased demand from polysilicon [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Industrial silicon futures have shown significant upward momentum since June 23, hovering around 8000 yuan/ton recently [1] - Major northern manufacturers are not meeting production resumption expectations and have begun to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [1] - Although some manufacturers in the southwest region are resuming production due to lower electricity prices, overall market prices remain unsatisfactory, with operating rates significantly below previous years [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - Inventory has been gradually decreasing since April, indicating a basic balance between supply and demand; as of July 3, 2025, industrial silicon warehouse inventory stood at 259,300 tons, down 54,200 tons in one month [1] - The supply side still has potential for growth, but limited by low operating rates in the southwest and production cuts from major manufacturers [1] - Demand is slightly increasing due to the resumption of polysilicon production, high operating rates in organosilicon, and stable demand for aluminum alloys, suggesting a continued state of supply-demand balance [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The production cut plans from major manufacturers and the expected resumption of polysilicon production are boosting market sentiment [1] - Continuous monitoring of production changes from major manufacturers and shifts in downstream demand is essential, with expectations of slight price increases [1]