Group 1: Currency Depreciation and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against the US dollar, dropping below 157.9, marking a 10-month low, with a nominal effective exchange rate reaching 71.4, close to intervention levels from July 2024 [1] - Since the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the yen has depreciated approximately 6% [1] - The depreciation of the yen is linked to rising government bond yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.825%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, and the 20-year and 40-year yields hitting 2.853% and 3.747%, respectively [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The Japanese cabinet approved a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen for fiscal year 2025, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about increasing government debt and its sustainability [2] - Japan's government debt as a percentage of GDP has exceeded international warning levels, and the stimulus plan will require additional bond issuance, further inflating the debt burden [2] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3, marking the first economic shrinkage in six quarters, which raises doubts about the yen's strength [2] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy Signals - The depreciation of the yen has led to increased import prices, contributing to domestic inflation, with the core CPI rising 3.0% in October, remaining above the 2% target for 50 consecutive months [3] - Despite the inflationary pressures, the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy interest rate of 0.5%, citing economic weakness as a constraint on rate hikes [3] - Recent comments from Bank of Japan officials indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance, suggesting that discussions on the feasibility and timing of interest rate hikes are forthcoming [4][5] Group 4: Global Financial Implications - The significant depreciation of the yen may negatively impact global liquidity, as the yen has been used as a funding currency for investments in higher-yielding assets like US Treasuries and equities [2] - The potential for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions, with a stable or rising US interest rate potentially exacerbating yen depreciation [5]

周三（11月26）美元兑日元汇率在政策博弈中呈现高位震荡格局，11月20日亚洲交易时段盘中一度触及 157.48的10个月新高，截至25日受美联储鸽派信号影响回落至156.5附近，自10月初以来累计涨幅仍达 4.5%，日元名义有效汇率已接近2024年7月日本政府干预时的低位。这一波动背后，是美日货币政策分 化、经济基本面差异及财政政策扰动的多重作用。 日本央行的政策困境则持续压制日元。尽管日本10月核心CPI同比上涨3.0%，连续50个月高于2%目标， 且三季度核心CPI上修至2.5%，但央行仍维持0.5%政策利率不变。植田和男行长强调需确认"工资—物 价良性循环"，而日本三季度GDP环比下降0.4%，民间住宅投资暴跌9.4%，经济疲软制约加息空间，市 场对12月加息预期概率仅57%。同时，日本政府推出21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案，叠加债务率达GDP的 260%，国债抛售潮推升10年期收益率至1.825%的金融危机后新高，进一步加剧日元贬值压力。 短期来看，美元兑日元大概率维持156—158区间震荡。若美国即将公布的PPI与零售数据疲弱，将强化 降息预期，汇价可能下探155.4支撑位；若数据强劲则有望重新冲击 ...