宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 24 日 鲍威尔重磅讲话之后：相信你所相信的 ——Jackson Hole 年会点评 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 鲍威尔发言引发全球金融市场震荡。鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 会议上的讲 话首度给出明确的降息暗示，全球市场震动，美元指数随即大幅跳水。当地时 间 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔 Jackson Hole 全球央行年会发表重磅讲话， 称美联储在短期内面临着"通胀风险偏向上行，而就业风险偏向下行"的挑战 性局面，并称在"基准情形展望和不断变化的风险平衡"之下，美联储可能需 要"调整政策立场（adjusting our policy stance）"。今年以来首度给出了较为明 确的降息暗示，引发全球市场震动。但结合鲍威尔在发言中对美国通胀和劳动 力市场未来走势的相关描述，降息预期落地后的市场走势如何发展目前仍尚难 确定。鲍威尔发言后，市场对美联储 9 月会议降息的预期骤然升温，但当前市 场已经充分预期的降息于 9 月会议兑现后，美联储后续决策又将如何发展仍需 从鲍威尔的发言中寻找蛛丝马迹。 放弃平均通胀目标，美国通胀能否快速下行？本次有关美联 ...

Core Insights - FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES (F&LC) reported a revenue increase of 18.3% year-on-year to 313.149 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025 third quarter, with a net profit growth of 74.3% to 18.072 billion yen [1] - The company operates multiple restaurant brands, including Sushiro, Sugidama, Kyotaru, and Misaki, with a total of 1,180 stores, an increase of 25 stores year-on-year [1] - Sushiro remains the primary revenue driver, with a significant performance difference between domestic and international markets [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, Sushiro's net sales in Japan grew by 11.6% to 195.99 billion yen, while international sales surged by 41.2% to 93.105 billion yen [2][3] - Segment profit for Sushiro in Japan was 15.271 billion yen, while international segment profit reached 11.116 billion yen, reflecting a strong international performance [3] Market Expansion - Sushiro has expanded its international presence, with 212 stores outside Japan, a 38-store increase year-on-year, while the domestic market saw a decrease of 12 stores to 960 [1] - F&LC plans to continue expanding its international footprint while carefully evaluating the business environment in various regions [4] Economic Context - The recovery of Japan's economy is attributed to rising personal consumption and increased demand from overseas tourists, although challenges remain due to global political instability and prolonged yen depreciation [3] - The restaurant industry faces ongoing challenges, including rising prices of raw materials and energy, as well as a long-term labor shortage [3]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current interest rate at 0.5% despite rising inflation, with no indication of a near-term rate hike [1][2] - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [1][2] - Major financial institutions in Japan are calling for a rate hike in September or October, citing the need to address the widening interest rate differential with the US and Eurozone [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan believes the underlying inflation rate has not reached 2%, and consumer activity has been declining since March [2][3] - Japan's GDP growth was -0.2% in Q1 and stagnant in Q2, indicating that inflation is not a sign of economic strength but rather a result of yen depreciation and labor shortages [3][4] - Political instability following the recent upper house elections complicates the situation, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [4][5] Group 3 - The US economy grew by 3.0% in Q2, but this growth is seen as temporary, and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could impact Japan's interest rate decisions [5][6] - If the US economy remains strong, it could lead to further yen depreciation and increased domestic prices in Japan, potentially creating an opportunity for the Bank of Japan to raise rates [5][6]

Core Insights - The number of bankrupt companies in Japan with liabilities exceeding 10 million yen reached 4,990 in the first half of 2025, marking a 1.19% increase from the previous year and the highest level since 2014 [1] - Various industries, including services, construction, childcare, and healthcare, are facing significant bankruptcy risks due to rising costs and economic pressures [1][2][3] Industry Analysis - In the construction sector, the number of bankruptcies in the renovation and painting industry reached 119, surpassing the figures during the 2009 financial crisis, indicating a 20-year high for the first half of the year [1] - The childcare sector saw 22 bankruptcies in the first half of 2025, a 70% increase year-on-year, with predictions of a record high for the entire year due to fierce competition and rising operational costs [2] - Home care institutions reported 45 bankruptcies, a 12.5% increase from the previous year, driven by factors such as reduced service demand and rising costs [2] - The healthcare sector experienced 21 hospital and clinic bankruptcies, a 16.6% increase, with larger institutions facing more severe financial crises due to rising operational costs and labor shortages [3] Economic Factors - High prices contributed to 343 bankruptcies in the first half of 2025, although this represents an 8.5% decrease from the previous year, maintaining a high level above 300 for three consecutive years [3] - Labor shortages led to 172 bankruptcies, the highest for the same period, with recruitment difficulties and rising labor costs being significant contributors [4] - Tax-related bankruptcies reached 77, the second highest since 2016, as companies struggled to meet tax obligations amid rising operational costs [4] - The depreciation of the yen resulted in 33 bankruptcies, with total liabilities exceeding 88.9 billion yen, eight times that of the previous year, highlighting systemic risks for small export-oriented companies [4] Overall Outlook - Japan is facing a systemic crisis characterized by high prices, labor shortages, and debt repayment peaks, particularly in critical sectors like childcare and healthcare [5] - The political instability and uncertain economic policies from the U.S. may further exacerbate the bankruptcy situation, with predictions suggesting that the total number of bankruptcies could exceed 10,000 for the year [5]

智通财经APP获悉，日本财务大臣加藤胜信表示，他对日元走势感到担忧。受日本央行释放鸽派利率信 号影响，日元汇率已跌至3月以来的最低水平。他周五表示，"政府高度关注外汇市场动向，包括投机性 交易行为，""汇率保持稳定并反映经济基本面至关重要。" 加藤发表上述言论之前，日元对美元汇率于周四跌破150关口。此前日本央行决定维持利率不变，行长 植田和男在会后新闻发布会上释放了明显的鸽派信号，浇灭了市场对近期收紧货币政策的预期。 "强劲的美国经济数据和美元走强将推高美元兑日元汇率，若突破152关口，下一个目标将是155，"瑞穗 证券东京首席交易策略师Shoki Omori表示。 此外，加藤胜信指出，日本近期与欧盟、美国达成的贸易协议有助于减少贸易政策不确定性，降低其对 日本及全球经济的拖累风险。周四，美国白宫发布行政令，将日本商品的对等关税税率设定为15%，落 实了此前两国达成的协议。新税率将于8月7日生效。 东京市场策略师警告称，日元可能进一步贬值至155日元兑1美元，这一水平或将引发投资者对日本当局 入市干预以支撑日元的警惕。 "如果日本央行不加息，日元有可能跌至155关口，"SBI流动性市场研究部总经理Marit ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential depreciation of the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar due to economic concerns, highlighting a shift in market focus from Japan's fiscal issues to the economic outlook of the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Japanese Yen and U.S. Dollar Dynamics - The recent Japanese Senate election results have led to predictions of significant yen depreciation and further dollar appreciation, yet the forex market remains calm [1][3] - There is a historical correlation between the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. and the yen's exchange rate, with a tendency for yen depreciation when the differential widens [3] - Despite the yen weakening to around 149 yen per dollar, market participants predict a stabilization around 140 yen per dollar by year-end, indicating a potential reversal in yen appreciation [3][4] Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Sentiment - Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, may increase domestic inflationary pressures and contribute to concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [4] - Investment funds are shifting from the yen and dollar towards the euro, with the euro seen as a safer option amid signs of recovery in the German economy [4][5] - The Japanese government's recent economic outlook indicates a deterioration for the first time in nearly five years, complicating governance as the ruling party loses majority control [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent defeat of Japan's ruling party in the House of Councillors election has led to a cautious but stable reaction in the yen exchange rate, with market participants remaining vigilant about potential future depreciation due to fiscal expansion and high tariffs from the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Election Impact on Yen - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito failed to secure a majority in the House of Councillors, which has raised concerns about the government's ability to pass legislation and budgets without relying on opposition parties [3][4] - Despite the ruling party's loss, the market reaction was relatively calm as the defeat was not as severe as anticipated, leading to some short-term buying of yen [3][4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has proposed expanding subsidies and temporarily reducing the food-related tax rate from 8% to 0%, which could lead to increased fiscal spending [3][4] - The likelihood of fiscal expansion is increasing, raising concerns about "malicious interest rate hikes" and potential long-term depreciation of the yen, with forecasts suggesting it could weaken to 150 yen per dollar [4][5] Group 3: Tariff Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Upcoming negotiations regarding a potential 25% tariff on Japanese imports are causing additional anxiety in the market, as Japan may struggle to secure favorable terms [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the political landscape and the potential for a no-confidence motion in the minority government could exacerbate market tensions [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the decline of the USD/JPY exchange rate, currently trading around 148, influenced by rising inflation in Japan and potential changes in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [1] - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year, marking a two-year high, which strengthens market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] - The U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, particularly automobiles, casts a shadow over Japan's economic outlook, potentially limiting export growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY has key support levels between 148.00 and 148.70, with a potential drop below 148.70 leading to a retest of earlier upward trends or the 147.54 level [2] - Resistance levels are identified at the 200-day moving average (149.63) and the psychological level of 150.00, with a further target at the March high of 151.30 if momentum continues [2] - Current indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD show bullish signals, suggesting a short-term upward momentum, with a recommendation for buying on dips while being cautious of potential overbought conditions near 151.30 [2]

金十数据7月18日讯，德国商业银行的分析师Volkmar Baur在一份报告中说，日本即将举行的选举可能 成为该国的一个转折点，并对日元构成不利影响。民意调查显示，在星期天的参议院选举中，政府面临 失去多数席位的危险。他还表示，不能排除在众议院举行新的选举的可能性。这增加了未来财政政策的 不确定性，并使与美国的贸易谈判更加困难，"这肯定会削弱日元"。Baur称，即使没有任何变动，如果 政府针对选举结果推出新的财政方案，但未能解决结构性问题，日元也可能下跌。 德商银行：日本即将举行的选举可能导致日元贬值 ...

智通财经APP获悉，若日本首相石破茂领导的执政联盟在即将举行的参议院选举中失去多数席位，日元 可能进一步走弱，货币策略师们已为此做好准备。 日本多家本土媒体的民调显示，自民党领导的执政联盟可能无法赢得足够席位以维持多数优势。但无论 选举结果如何，政府加大开支似乎已成定局：为吸引选民，自民党承诺发放现金补贴，而反对党则力推 一项耗资不菲的销售税减免计划。 财政担忧已将日本国债收益率推升至多年高点，而选举焦虑也在打压日元汇率——本周日元跌至今年4 月以来的最低水平。另一个显示日元可能承压的信号是：本周，短期期权市场对日元兑美元的押注出现 近一年来首次净看空。 SBI流动性市场公司市场研究部总经理Marito Ueda表示："通常情况下，收益率上升会提振日元买盘， 但此次收益率上升属于'恶性上涨'，日本股市、债市和日元有可能同时遭到抛售。无论选举结果如何， 日本的财政扩张都已不可避免。" 瑞穗证券东京首席交易策略师Shoki Omori表示，若执政联盟大幅失去多数席位，日元可能贬值至1美元 兑155日元，这一水平自今年2月以来尚未出现过。 Omori称："随着财政支出扩大，市场可能对日元及日元利率失去信心。" 彭博 ...