周五（10月10日）亚洲交易时段，美元/日元在触及2月13日以来新高153.2700后略有下降，不过下行空 间受限，最新美元兑日元汇率报152.7900，跌幅0.18%，日本10年期公债收益率周五触及逾17年高点， 因日元疲软提高了人们对日本央行将加息的押注。 10年期日本公债收益率上升1个基点至1.7%，为2008年7月以来最高。三井住友信托资产管理公司高级 策略师稻留克俊说，"日元疲软加剧了人们对日本央行可能提前加息的揣测。" 在自民党总裁选举中，财政鸽派人士高市早苗胜出，市场此前对日本央行可能推迟加息的押注出现逆 转。之所以出现这种逆转，是因为市场担心日元疲软可能会提振进口价格，从而加速通胀。 日本五年期公债收益率上升0.5个基点至1.24%，为2008年7月以来的最高水平。两年期日本公债收益率 持平于0.925%。20年期日本公债收益率下跌1个基点，至2.705%。30年期日本公债收益率持平于 3.175%。 前日本央行官员、曾参与过去外汇干预的Atsushi Takeuchi表示，如果日元急剧跌向160，日本可能会进 行干预，并警告过度贬值可能会迫使东京出手。 Takeuchi表示，到目前为止日元的 ...

据报道，日本自民党总裁高市早苗表示，无意引发日元过度贬值；目前不便就加息发表评论。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

经济学家Taro Kimura指出："如果日本央行迟迟不加息，市场可能会开始质疑其独立性。在政治与央行 职能的微妙平衡中，日本央行继续维持紧缩政策的可能性仍然存在。" 分析人士指出，如果日本领导人似乎推迟加息并导致日元贬值，这对美国来说可不是什么好事。美国总 统特朗普曾表示，日本正试图通过低汇率来获取优势。美国财政部长贝森特在 8 月份曾表示，日本央行 在应对通胀方面行动迟缓，这是他上任以来罕见的言论。 Nissay Asset Management高级投资经理Eiichiro Miura表示："市场正在考验自民党总裁高市早苗、财务 省以及日本央行的立场。在达到 160 之前，高市早苗很可能会被日本央行说服。而且，来自美国方面的 加息压力也可能存在。" 高市早苗所在的自民党在最近的全国选举中失去了对议会两院的控制权，民众对生活成本的不满被认为 是主要原因之一。日本的关键通胀指标已连续三年保持在或高于日本央行设定的 2%的目标水平，导致 实际工资持续下降。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相候选人高市早苗赢得自民党总裁选举，有可能会促使日本央行在本月提高 利率。由于高市早苗主张推行宽松货币政策，在她当选自民党总裁后， ...

【高市早苗或意外促使日本央行本月提前加息，日元贬值带来多重考验】日本可能上任的下一任首相高 市早苗，有可能在无意间促使日本央行最快于本月加息。她给市场留下不希望日本央行采取行动的印 象，从而助推了日元贬值。 日元走弱通过抬高进口成本加剧了通胀压力，这不仅让日本央行面临上涨 的价格风险，还可能使高市早苗旨在减轻生活成本紧缩影响的计划变得复杂。日元疲软将成为高市早苗 预计上任后面临的最初考验之一，同时接受考验的还有她组建稳定联合政府的能力。 尽管高市早苗以 坚定的货币宽松支持者著称，但她的立场有可能助长通胀并加剧选民的不满。若日元继续下滑至160附 近，而日本央行仍维持利率不变，日本财务省可能不得不干预市场以阻止汇率波动。 瑞穗银行首席市 场学家Daisuke Karakama表示："随着日元走弱，在高市领导下，10月份加息的可能性有所增加。公众 对日元贬值导致输入性通胀的不满情绪极高。" 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 160附近,而日本共行1月维持利举个受,日本财务省 可能不得不干预市场以阻止汇率波动。瑞穗银行首 席市场学家Daisuke Karakama表示:"随着日元走 弱, ...

周四（10月9日）亚洲时段，美元/日元维持高位震荡，目前美元兑日元汇率交投于152.50附近，本周累 计涨幅已超过3%，或创下自2024年9月以来最大涨幅。东京市场的投资者开始怀疑日本央行是否会在10 月甚至12月加息。日本第三季度经济依然疲软，央行总裁植田和男最近强调了日本央行所面临的不确定 前景。 这表明数据可能还不支持加息，而日本新政府如若改变政策，只会增加近期的不确定性。东短研 究/ICAP对日本央行10月底加息几率的预估已降至27%。12月加息几率仍有44%，但随着新政府上台， 预期势必会发生变化。 日本央行副行长内田真一与央行行长同为中间派，上周他对经济的看法似乎更加乐观，但最新日本央行 分行经理会议报告强调了经济前景的不确定性，尤其是与工资有关的不确定性，同时总体保持乐观。 一些前日本央行专家最近也表达了他们对日本央行政策的看法。前副总裁若田部昌澄认为今年加息的理 由很难成立，赞同央行谨慎推进政策正常化。 前日本央行调查统计局长龟田制作强调工资前景是日本央行政策的关键，他显然同意植田和男的观点， 认为需要谨慎行事，尤其是考虑到美国关税影响的不确定性依然存在。前日本央行理事、现任职瑞穗信 息综研的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，本周高市早苗意外当选新任执政党领袖后，日元持续下跌，市场震荡后，日元对美 元汇率已逼近155这一关键心理关口。在此背景下，投资者开始密切关注：日元需贬值至何种程度，日 本财务省才会再度出手干预汇市? 日本自民党总裁选举中，高市早苗意外胜选，直接推动日元汇率跌至1美元兑152.65日元，创下2月以来 的最低水平，对欧元汇率也刷新历史低点。这一波动同时引发日本财务大臣加藤胜信的回应——他于周 二表示，将密切关注外汇市场的过度波动情况。 伽马资产管理公司(Gama Asset Management SA)全球宏观投资组合经理拉吉夫·德梅洛指出，"日本财务 省与日本央行不愿看到日元大幅贬值，而当前汇率重回150-160区间，这一水平会让他们感到不 安。""日方很可能先通过'口头干预'释放信号，但若日元贬值趋势持续，实际干预行动或许很快就会跟 进。" 目前日元汇率正逐步逼近日本央行2024年曾出手干预的区间——当时干预点位分别在1美元兑157.99日 元、159.45日元、160.17日元及161.76日元附近。尽管市场纷纷猜测干预"红线"究竟在哪一具体点位， 但日本官方已明确表态：相较于特定汇率水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

Group 1 - The US dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level since the end of July, influenced by various factors [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data release in the US is expected to significantly impact the dollar's performance [1] - Analysts predict that the dollar index will experience fluctuations, initially declining before rising again due to interest rate cut expectations and potential interventions [1] Group 2 - The divergence in French policies highlights the challenges of policy coordination, which may affect the dollar index in relation to the euro [1] - Internal and external pressures are contributing to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, with expectations of a potential rebound in the future [1]

日本共同社：日本自民党总务会长铃木俊一拟辞任。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#行情 日元日内持续走贬值，美元兑日元日内涨幅达1%，报148.64。共同社等日媒消息称，日本自民党2日上午召开有关参院选举大败的总结委员会会议，列举了“政治与金钱”问题等多条败因，还强调“要像解散政党一样重新出发”。石破茂政权的中流砥柱、干事长森山裕曾暗示会在总结完毕后辞职。 https://t.co/ciB0j1Xe4q ...

Core Viewpoint - The remittance amount from foreign workers in Japan has significantly increased, reaching a historical high in the first half of 2025, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yen for the year due to factors such as bonuses and long holidays [2][4]. Group 1: Remittance Trends - In the first half of 2025, remittances from foreign workers in Japan amounted to 506.8 billion yen, marking a 38% increase year-on-year and setting a new half-year record [2][4]. - The total remittance amount is projected to surpass the previous record of 847.5 billion yen set in 2024, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yen for the first time [4]. - The number of foreign workers in Japan has increased by 12% year-on-year, reaching 2.3 million, with Vietnamese nationals being the largest group [4]. Group 2: Remittance Destinations - The top remittance destinations in 2024 included Vietnam (326.2 billion yen), Indonesia (102.1 billion yen), and the Philippines (90.2 billion yen) [6]. - Global remittance flows have tripled over the past 20 years, with Japan ranking 25th in terms of outbound remittance amounts [6]. Group 3: Risks Associated with Remittances - There are two main risks associated with remittances from foreign workers: illegal activities and the impact on the yen exchange rate [8]. - A survey indicated that 2% of foreign residents in Japan used underground remittance services, primarily due to favorable exchange rates [8]. - Increased remittance amounts could lead to higher selling pressure on the yen as foreign workers convert yen to their local currencies [8]. Group 4: Domestic Remittance Trends - In the first half of 2025, remittances from Japanese residents abroad to Japan totaled 303.1 billion yen, a 10% decrease year-on-year [9]. - The net selling of yen after accounting for remittances was 203.7 billion yen, the highest half-year figure since comparable data began in 1996 [9].