基本面总结： （来源：领盛Optivest） 1．日本制造业12月收缩步伐放缓 私人部门调查显示，日本制造业活动在12月的收缩步伐有所放缓，而服务业增长动能减弱，这对2025年底的经济前景构成压力。尽管企业对2026年的整体 信心仍然较强，但较上月有所回落，尤其是制造业企业，其不确定性主要源于全球经济形势、人口老龄化以及成本上升。 标普全球闪电日本制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）由11月的48.7升至12月的49.7，连续第六个月处于收缩区间，仍低于50这一扩张与收缩的分界线。标普 全球市场情报经济学副总监AnnabelFiddes表示，增长仍主要集中在服务业，制造业的生产和销售进一步走弱。 尽管12月工厂产出较前月仍显疲软，但商品需求下降的速度已放缓至一年半以来最低水平，这表明制造业可能正在趋于稳定。 2．日本通过1180亿美元额外预算，推进疫情后最大刺激计划 日本上议院周二通过了一项规模为18.3万亿日元（约1180亿美元）的额外预算，为首相高市早苗实施自新冠疫情以来最大规模的经济刺激计划扫清障碍， 尽管外界对财政状况存在担忧。 这项2025财年补充预算已于上周获得下议院批准，规模明显高于去年的13.9万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and began selling its ETF holdings, marking the fifth consecutive meeting of no change, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged is influenced by domestic political uncertainties, global economic changes, and persistent inflation pressures [2]. - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2]. - The core CPI, excluding fresh food, indicates strong inflation momentum, while food inflation remains a drag on overall inflation [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan acknowledges signs of economic weakness but maintains that the economy is on a path of moderate recovery, with stable private consumption and moderate growth in capital expenditure [3]. - Two members of the Bank of Japan's policy board expressed a hawkish stance, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, citing rising price risks [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 0.3% to 147.53, while the Nikkei 225 index reached a historical high, increasing by 1.19% [5]. - The market anticipates another rate hike from the Bank of Japan within the year, with focus shifting to the implications of the upcoming October meeting [5].