OpenAl的天量IPO一旦兑现，可能成为压垮市场情绪的最后一根稻草。 文｜丁卯 编辑｜张帆 来源｜36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源｜视觉中国 今年以来，随着美股科技巨头估值屡创新高，市场对AI过热迹象的担忧与日俱增。而近期，OpenAI天量IPO的传闻，更是将这种担忧推向了顶峰。 据路透社报道，OpenAI最早可能在2026年前后提交上市申请，目标募集资金可能超过600亿美元，估值更是高达1万亿美元。若真的兑现，那么OpenAI将 成为美股史上规模最大IPO之一。 在市场为这场"AI淘金热"欢呼的同时，一个不容忽视的规律正在敲响警钟：历史上的"巨无霸IPO"往往伴随着市场见顶的"魔咒"。这迫使投资者必须冷静 审视当前美股的估值，警惕2000年互联网泡沫的幽灵重现。 "巨无霸IPO"魔咒 从历史复盘看，"巨无霸IPO"的出现确实对市场有一定的风险警示作用。这背后的逻辑主要体现在两个层面： 一方面，最直接的影响是"巨无霸IPO"会出现强大的虹吸效应，迅速抽干其他板块的血液。当市场上的流动资金涌向巨无霸公司时，容易引起市场结构 性"失血"，从而加剧整体市场的波动。 另一方面，更深层的原因是牛市尾声 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential massive IPO of OpenAI could be the final straw that undermines market sentiment, raising concerns about an AI bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble [4][26]. Group 1: Historical Context of "Mega IPO" Phenomenon - Historical analysis shows that "mega IPOs" often serve as a warning signal for market risks, primarily due to their siphoning effect on liquidity from other sectors [6][21]. - The "mega IPO" phenomenon typically occurs during periods of extreme market optimism, where investors exhibit high risk tolerance and are willing to pay a premium for future growth expectations [6][21]. - The 2007 IPO of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is a notable example, where it raised 668 billion yuan, accounting for 0.23% of the total A-share market capitalization at the time, leading to a significant market downturn shortly after [8][10]. Group 2: Recent Examples and Market Implications - The IPO of Rivian Automotive in 2021 raised over $13.7 billion, with its stock price initially soaring, but it later experienced a dramatic decline, signaling a potential tech bubble burst [16][17]. - The 2015 IPO of Guotai Junan Securities also exemplified the "mega IPO curse," as it coincided with a peak in the A-share market, leading to a subsequent market decline [12][13]. Group 3: Current Market Indicators - The current AI sector shows signs of overcrowding, with the top five tech companies in the U.S. accounting for over 16% of the global public stock market, raising concerns about a potential bubble [27][30]. - Valuation metrics indicate a possible bubble, with the average P/E ratio of the top five tech giants around 37 times, significantly higher than the historical average of the S&P 500 [30][32]. - The increase in debt financing related to AI, particularly around OpenAI, mirrors the telecom bubble of the early 2000s, raising alarms about potential systemic risks if performance expectations are not met [31][34]. Group 4: Conclusion and Outlook - While some indicators suggest an AI bubble, the current market is characterized by stronger performance support from leading companies compared to the 2000 bubble, which may mitigate the risk of a severe downturn [30][34]. - If OpenAI's IPO occurs and its valuation exceeds future cash flow potential, it could trigger a reversal in market sentiment, potentially leading to an AI bubble [34][35].

今年以来，随着美股科技巨头估值屡创新高，市场对AI过热迹象的担忧与日俱增。而近期，OpenAI天量IPO的传闻，更是将这种担忧推向了顶 峰。 据路透社报道，OpenAI 最早可能在2026年前后提交上市申请，目标募集资金可能超过600亿美元，估值更是高达 1万亿美元。若真的兑现，那么 OpenAI将成为美股史上规模最大IPO之一。 在市场为这场"AI淘金热"欢呼的同时，一个不容忽视的规律正在敲响警钟：历史上的"巨无霸IPO"往往伴随着市场见顶的"魔咒"。这迫使投资者必 须冷静审视当前美股的估值，警惕2000年互联网泡沫的幽灵重现。 （原标题：OpenAI上市，会是美股的"中石油"？） 作者 | 丁卯 编辑 | 张帆 那么，历史上的"巨无霸IPO"是否真的对泡沫行情有指示作用？目前美股市场存在AI泡沫吗？ "巨无霸IPO"魔咒 从历史复盘看，"巨无霸IPO"的出现确实对市场有一定的风险警示作用。这背后的逻辑主要体现在两个层面： 一方面，最直接的影响是"巨无霸IPO"会出现强大的虹吸效应，迅速抽干其他板块的血液。当市场上的流动资金涌向巨无霸公司时，容易引起市场 结构性"失血"，从而加剧整体市场的波动。 另一方面， ...