机构：海通国际 研究员：寇媛媛/陈芳园 老铺黄金2025 和2H25 前瞻：我们预期2025 年老铺黄金收入同比增长217%至269.6 亿元，对应2H25 收 入约146 亿，同比增长193%，线上增速快于线下，海外业务增速快于国内。我们预期25年线下同店增 速为160%+，2H25 同店增速为120%+，因为高基数较1H25的同店有所收窄，但依旧强劲，且4Q25的同 店势头良好，一方面由于金价上升为基础的提价，另一方面受益于会员数量持续扩充带来的客流量，上 半年公司会员数量达48 万，半年净增13万，环比增长37.1%，我们预期2H25 会员数量环比增长有望超 过上半年，短期入门级客户的快速扩圈是主要驱动力，速度超过金卡/黑卡会员数量的增长。我们预期 2025 年毛利率承压，且2H25毛利率环比1H25 进一步走弱，主要因为三季度金价上涨过快。受益于10 月下旬的提价， 4Q25 在黄金税改背景下毛利率显著恢复。 我们预期2025 年公司归母净利润为46.3 亿元，同比增长214%，对应2H25 归母净利润23.6 亿元，同比 增长167%。 2025 年公司深化"少而精、大而美"的顶奢选址策略，推动单店 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][12] Core Insights - Laopu Gold's revenue is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 26.96 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.63 billion, reflecting a 214% increase [3][12] - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic and overseas offline expansion, with a strategy of "fewer but better, larger and more beautiful" in site selection, enhancing per-store sales efficiency [4][10] - Differentiated original designs are driving product iterations, with new product contributions expected to rise, including exclusive launches targeting diverse consumer groups [5][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 26.96 billion, RMB 36.03 billion, and RMB 43.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 217%, 33.6%, and 21.5% [6][12] - Attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 6.51 billion, and RMB 8.19 billion, with growth rates of 214.3%, 40.6%, and 25.8% [6][12] Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 5 new stores in high-end districts and upgrade existing ones, focusing on high-density and strong presence in core cities [4][10] - The company has expanded its international presence with the opening of its first overseas store in Singapore, enhancing brand internationalization [4][10] Product Development - The company has a clear cadence for new product launches, with several unique designs introduced throughout 2025, aimed at appealing to contemporary consumer aesthetics [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][12] Core Insights - Laopu Gold's revenue is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 26.96 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.63 billion, also up 214% year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic and overseas offline expansion, with a strategy of "fewer but better, larger and more beautiful" in ultra-luxury site selection [4][10] - Differentiated original designs are driving product iteration, with new product contributions expected to rise further [5][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 26.96 billion, RMB 36.03 billion, and RMB 43.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 217%, 33.6%, and 21.5% [6][12] - Attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 6.51 billion, and RMB 8.19 billion, with growth rates of 214.3%, 40.6%, and 25.8% [6][12] Store Expansion and Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 5 new stores in top-tier districts and upgrade existing stores during the second half of 2025 [4][10] - The company has opened its first overseas store in Singapore, enhancing its international presence [4][10] Product Development - The company has launched several new product lines targeting diverse consumer groups, including the "Gold Cross" series and the "Goddess of Light" pendant [5][11] - The product iteration strategy focuses on thematic innovation and distinctive craftsmanship to enhance product freshness [5][11]